Iran's Oil Woes; An Arab Electric Car?

Plugs and Cars

Today the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports "Soaring Energy Use Puts Oil Squeeze on Iran." Iran may start rationing gasoline as soon as next month, and its oil exports could dry up in as little as a decade. The stagnation of Iran's oil industry presents a potential crisis for the country and the global oil market. As we all know, Iran is investing in nuclear power to provide a larger chunk of its future energy requirements.

2007 100

Terra Motors starting electric two-wheeler sales in Iran

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Japan-based Terra Motors, a manufacturer of electric two and three-wheelers ( earlier post ), has started sales of the A4000i electric scooter—with new products to follow—in Tehran, Iran with Jahanro Industrial Co, exclusively for next five years. But now it successfully became a distributor of Kawasaki, Bajaj, and TVS, with 1,000 employees and 200 dealers in Iran. We believe that this partnership will lead to great expansion of the electric motorcycle market in Iran.

Iran 83

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Studies find global COVID-19 lockdowns have significantly reduced PM2.5 and NO2 pollution, but ozone up

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Stavrakou and her colleagues used satellite measurements of air quality to estimate the changes in nitrogen dioxide pollution over the major epicenters of the outbreak: China, South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Iran and the United States.

2020 101

Eni report: global oil reserves and oil production up in 2018 due to US

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In 2018, global oil reserves rose slightly (+0.4%), mainly due to growth in the US. OPEC registered zero growth as production in the Arab Gulf countries were offset by losses in Iran and Venezuela due to geopolitical issues. WTI, the US light crude, covers 60% of global growth.

2019 83

Global Gas Prices | Hybrid Sales

Hybrid SUV Blog

Some expect both to remain steady due to global economic conditions while others point to the return of $3/gallon gas (in the states) fueled mainly by an increase in foreign demand.

2010 102

Opinion: Global Oil Supply More Fragile Than You Think

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But the collapse of prices in July—owing to the Iran nuclear deal, an ongoing production surplus, and economic and financial concerns in Greece and China—have darkened the mood. But the delay of 46 major oil and gas projects that have 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves mean that global production several years from now could be much lower than anticipated. by Nick Cunningham of

2015 73

Pike Research forecasts global NGV sales to hit 3.2M units annually by 2016

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million unit global NGV market which we forecast will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% The growth in vehicles will lead to growth in usage of natural gas for transportation fuel, which Pike expects to reach 19,123 million cubic meters of gas globally (6.7% Pike expects India to overtake Iran for the lean in NGV sales in 2014, and targets that market at 612,389 NGVs in 2016 (12.0% Iran and Pakistan are expected to rank second and third, respectively.

2011 76

Pike Research forecasts annual global sales of light-duty natural gas vehicles to reach 3.2M in 2019

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The global market for light-duty (LD) natural gas vehicles (NGVs)—including passenger cars, light-duty trucks and commercial vehicles—will experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2% The global market for LD NGVs varies significantly depending on the region and country. globally). The Middle East is home to the largest market for LD NGVs, Iran.

2012 102

IEA: non-OPEC oil supply tops 43 mb/d for first time in decades; global demand to reach 92.4 mb/d in 2014

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The International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Oil Market Report (OMR) for December raised the estimate of global oil demand for 2013 by 130,000 barrels per day (130 kb/d) to 91.2 Global demand is now seen advancing by 1.2 Global oil supplies increased by 310 kb/d in November to 92.3 Renewed disruptions in Libya and smaller drops in Nigeria, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela more than offset higher output in Iran, Iraq and Angola.

ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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As the world population increases by the estimated 30% from 2010 to 2040, ExxonMobil sees global GDP rising by about 140%, but energy demand by only about 35% due to greater efficiency. The Outlook for Energy provides ExxonMobil’s long-term view of global energy demand and supply.

2014 111

Forecast: Global Natural Gas Vehicle Fleet to Reach 17 Million by 2015

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A new report from Pike Research forecasts that the global natural gas vehicle (NGV) sector is poised for a new period of growth. Globally, Pike Research forecasts that the NGV market will grow at a CAGR of 5.5% Conversely, in Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, and India—the top five markets for NGVs—there are a variety of light-duty NGVs available.

2009 90

IEA working paper highlights potential role of natural gas in reducing global road transport CO2

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The global natural gas vehicle fleet has grown rapidly in the last 10 years, but still represents less than 1% of global transport fuel consumption. The global fleet of NGVs consists largely of passenger cars/LDVs, although there are some regional differences.

2010 96

International study identifies 14 key measures to reduce methane and black carbon emissions; reduction in projected global mean warming of ~0.5 °C by 2050

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A study by an international team of researchers, led by Drew Shindell of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, has identified 14 measures targeting methane and black carbon (BC) emissions that could reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C

2012 113

Surge in natural gas vehicles predicted

Green Cars News

It has also forecast that the market will grow globally at a rate of 5.5 Currently, the top five markets for natural gas vehicles are Pakistan, Argentina, Iran, India and Brazil with Pike Research anticipating that India will be the fastest growing market at a rate of 18.4 Tags: Green cars Latest news Argentina Brazil Cleantech india Iran natural gas cars natural gas vehicles Pakistan Pike Research US natural gas vehicles

2015 34

Opinion: How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out?

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However, OPEC has been in the line of fire from the western world in light of its stance of not reducing the production levels of its member nations (excluding Iran). The EIA even predicts that OPEC’s net oil exports (excluding Iran) could fall to as low as $380 billion in 2015.

2015 96

The 5 Countries That Could Push Oil Prices Up

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The ‘Fragile Five’ petrostates—Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela—continue to see supply disruption potential, with northern Iraq crude exports at risk due to an escalation of tensions between the (Kurdistan Regional Government), Baghdad and Turkey, while the United States has decertified the 2015 Iran nuclear deal,” U.S. The danger to Iran is a return of U.S. Iran probably won’t pose a supply risk to the market, at least not this year.

2017 65

Borgward expanding to the Middle East; westwards from China

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Borgward will systematically continue to globalize its activities by entering the markets of Middle Eastern countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iran. In this region, we expect especially strong momentum to come from Iran. In accordance with this roadmap, the company will expand westwards from China before entering the European market. As announced, we will boost growth further and open up new markets.

Opinion: Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

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President Putin’s recent moves in the Middle East—to shore up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria through deployment of combat aircraft, equipment, and manpower and build-out of air-, naval-, and ground-force bases, and the agreement in the last week with Iran, Iraq, and Syria on intelligence and security cooperation—could contribute to Russian efforts to combat the myriad negative pressures on Russia’s vital energy industry. by Dalan McEndree for

Platts: June OPEC output of 32.73M barrels of crude per day, highest since Aug. 2008

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million b/d, as production in Nigeria and Libya tentatively recovered along with steady increases for Saudi Arabia and Iran, according to an S&P Global Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials. OPEC’s 300,000-barrel-per-day output rise in June, boosted by fragile recoveries in Libya and Nigeria, and the unrelenting rise in Iran and the increase in Saudi Arabia, sends a strong message over its unwavering market share strategy.

2008 60

Renault’s new 2017-2022 plan: 8 EVs, 12 electrified models, 15 autonomous models

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million units2 sold in 2016, as the company expands its product range, including in LCV and new electric vehicles and builds on success of its global access range. The plan will also leverage the R&D and global economies of scale from Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, the world’s largest automotive alliance, while maintaining financial discipline and cost efficiency. Growing market opportunities in Brazil, India, Iran. Expanding the group’s already successful Global Access range.

2017 60

Day Of Reckoning For US Shale Will Have To Wait

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Moody’s Investors Service sees the contraction as too little to make a significant dent in the global supply gut. Moody’s sees global oil production rising by 1 million barrels per day in both 2015 and 2016. Also, although there was a lot of speculation about Iran’s ability to return some capacity to the market, such an outcome appears more and more likely. by Nick Cunningham of

2015 82

Opinion: Saudi Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide?

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In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market’s swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices. The average price of Brent, the global benchmark, fell below the Saudis’ $80 floor in November, fell to $62.34 This increase in output occurs with the context of a narrow global demand opportunity. by Dalan McEndree for

2015 98

IEA March Oil Market Report revises 2015 demand forecast upward

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out in the second quarter of 2014, global oil demand growth has since steadily risen, with year?on?year mb/d, bringing global demand to an average 93.5 Global supply rose by 1.3 mb/d, as losses in Libya and Iraq offset higher supply from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Angola. Global crude refinery throughputs estimates have been raised to 77.8 Having bottomed?out year gains estimated at around 0.9

2015 77

More Job Losses Coming To US Shale

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With the recently concluded nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries, oil prices have already started heading downward on sentiments that Iran’s crude oil supply would further contribute to the already rising global supply glut. By Gaurav Agnihotri for

2015 103

Baker Institute: energy-subsidy reform can be achieved with proper preparation, outside pressure

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Krane said the most encouraging example of reform efforts is that of Iran, the first country in the world to replace major subsidies with a universal cash transfer program for households. Iran’s 2010 reform was welcomed by the IMF and, at least initially, by the Iranian public, while halving the world’s largest energy-subsidy burden, valued at around $100 billion or a quarter of the 2010 gross domestic product.

2014 71

IEA trims expected growth in oil demand for 2012/2013 by 300K–400K barrels per day

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The implication is that global oil stocks have built solidly in the first half of 2012, albeit the recent trend in OECD countries has been downward. Combined with still-slim OPEC spare capacity, and a series of geopolitical issues confronting several OPEC producers, not least Iran, this has kept crude prices strong through July and early-August. Global oil supply grew by 0.3 Global oil output stood 2.6 3Q12 global throughputs now total 75.5

2012 81

IEA says oil supplies may not keep up with demand

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Global oil demand is expected to increase by 37 percent by 2040, with a dominant proportion of that coming from developing countries—i.e. After that point, when the shale revolution peters out, oil markets revert to their old ways—that is, looking to the Middle East once again to meet global demand. An estimated $900 billion will need to be deployed each year beginning in the 2030s to bring enough oil online to meet global demand.

2014 87

Opinion: OPEC Divorce And Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Oil Strategy?

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percent increase), based on Saudi Arabia’s conflict with Iran. Annual export volume is based on the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report’s Table 2 (Summary of Global Oil Demand) and Table 3 (World Oil Production). Since 2011, the Saudi share of global output has ranged from 10.2

2015 101

Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

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Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 This increase represents less than 40% of the new oil production under development globally: more than 60% of the new production will likely reach the market after 2020, according to Maugeri. In Iran and Mexico, the loss of production is primarily due to political factors.

2012 88

Opinion: Oil Megaprojects Won’t Stay On The Shelf For Long

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Moody’s Investors Service sees the contraction as too little to make a significant dent in the global supply gut. Moody’s sees global oil production rising by 1 million barrels per day in both 2015 and 2016. Also, although there was a lot of speculation about Iran’s ability to return some capacity to the market, such an outcome appears more and more likely. by Nick Cunningham of One casualty of the oil price downturn could be the megaproject.

2015 73

Saudis Expand Price War Downstream

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The undisputed king of oil and gas is making some moves that could change the face of the global refining sector. With Saudi Arabia's refined fuel contributing to the global supply glut, what will be its impact on the refining markets especially those in Asia?

2015 96

Opinion: The Shale Delusion: Why The Party’s Over For US Tight Oil

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Global Supply and Demand Fundamentals Continue to Worsen. This is part of overall weak demand in a global economy that has been severely weakened by debt. by Art Berman for The party is over for tight oil.

2015 109

IHS: continued legislative focus on pollutants to drive sensor market for internal combustion engines

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The global market for sensors used in internal combustion engines (ICE) is on the road of steady growth for the next few years, propelled by increasing utilization in engine management and exhaust aftertreatment, according to a new report from IHS Technology.

2014 96

Opinion: Saudis Could Face An Open Revolt At Next OPEC Meeting

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For Iran, the only other OPEC country for which the IEA provides domestic demand data, the increase in exports, 0.7 percent, during the same period; during the same period, OPEC output as a share of global output declined slightly, from 39.5 by Dalan McEndree for

2015 100

Ricardo study predicts that BRIC automotive markets will be eclipsed by the “Rising-15”

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Ricardo’s Rising-15 automotive markets include: Argentina; Egypt; Indonesia; Iran; Malaysia; Mexico; Morocco; Nigeria; Peru; the Philippines; South Africa; Thailand; Turkey; Ukraine; and Vietnam. There have been winners and losers in the efforts of the current cohort of established global automakers to exploit growth within the BRIC region; the key strategic question now is where the next wave of growth based opportunity will arise. Positioning the Rising 15.

2013 74

Opinion: The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits

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More oil bulls are piling on in anticipation of the April OPEC meeting , on an unfounded belief that the production freeze may actually have any material impact on global oil supplies. Iran also continues to add production, albeit at a slower-than-expected rate. If the number of DUCs brought online is surprising to the upside, that means US production won’t decline as quickly as people expect,” Michael Wittner, global head of oil research at Société Générale, told Reuters.

2016 60

US EIA reminder: Strait of Hormuz world’s most important oil chokepoint; almost 20% of oil traded worldwide

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Chokepoints are narrow channels along widely used global sea routes, some so narrow that restrictions are placed on the size of vessel that can navigate through them. They are a critical part of global energy security due to the high volume of oil traded through their narrow straits.

2011 128

Opinion: The End Of An Era: Is The US Petrodollar Under Threat?

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Recent trade deals and high-level cooperation between Russia and China have set off alarm bells in the West as policymakers and oil and gas executives watch the balance of power in global energy markets shift to the East. Other OPEC members agreed to similar deals, ensuring perpetual global demand for greenbacks. by Andrew Topf of

2014 78

Forecast: 17M Natural Gas Vehicles Worldwide by 2015

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Pike Research forecasts that the NGV market will grow globally at a CAGR of 5.5% The top five markets for NGVs are currently Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, and India. Cleantech research firm Pike Research forecasts growth in natural gas vehicles (NGV) on the road worldwide to 17 million units by 2015, up from 9.7 million in 2008. to reach just over 3 million vehicles (including conversions) by 2015.

2009 64

MIT and IEA reports take different views of the future of natural gas in transportation

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MIT and the IEA both have newly released reports exploring the potential for and impact of a major expansion in global usage of natural gas, given the current re-evaluation of global supplies. mb/d, more than 12% of global oil demand in the road-transport sector in 2035.

2011 128

Increase in US rig count will not cap oil prices

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The argument emerged that having contributed to the collapse of world oil prices, US LTO was the new global swing producer, replacing OPEC leader Saudi Arabia in that role. He was also optimistic WTI could exit 2016 at $70 because of the rapid rebalancing of global crude supply and demand.

2016 78

Strong Dollar Could Cap Oil Prices

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Commodity prices are often a key barometer for global demand, which is to say that the recent selloff has some analysts worried about the health of the global economy. The oil supply outages in Venezuela, Libya and Iran could yet drive oil prices much higher. By Irina Slav for The strength of the U.S. dollar poses an obstacle to further gains in oil prices. President Trump’s trade war with China, which is still in its early stages, has already battered the yuan.