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The Next Oil Price Spike May Cripple The Industry

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Two diametrically opposed views dominate the current debate about where the oil price is heading. On the one hand, there is the view that the price of oil will be “ lower for longer ”, or even “ lower forever ”, as the electrification of transport will eat away at oil demand more and more while, at the same time, technological innovation ( shale in particular ) will greatly increase economically recoverable resources. Market Background Oil Opinio

2017 163

$10-Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC

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by Nick Cunningham of OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs. The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. From there, it sees oil prices rising slowly, hitting $95 per barrel in 2040. So what are we to make of this?

2015 183

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Opinion: This Is What Needs To Happen For Oil Prices To Stabilize

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Dan Doyle is president of Reliance Well Services, a hydraulic fracturing company based in Pennsylvania. On September 10 th , the EIA reported a production decline in the Lower 48—essentially shale production—of 208,000 BOPD (barrels of oil per day). That is a staggeringly enormous number, approximately 10 percent of the estimated global over-supply. Rather, Goldman Sachs was grabbing all the headlines with its $20 call on oil.

2015 207

Global Bioenergies reports first production of green isobutene at demo plant

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Global Bioenergies is now entering the final phase of demonstrating its technology for converting renewable carbon into hydrocarbons. The first trials on the demo plant in Leuna were successfully completed, within schedule, in the fall of 2016 and Global Bioenergies announced first production of green isobutene via fermentation. Isobutene—one of the main petroleum derivatives—is a platform molecule.

2016 214

GlobalData: COVID-19 puts EV sales and CO2 fleet emission targets at risk

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GlobalData research shows that lower oil prices as a result of the COVID-19 crisis could reduce electric vehicle demand and impair EU efforts to significantly reduce average new vehicle CO 2 emissions in the European car market. GlobalData’s analysis suggests that low oil prices will lead to a longer waits for the reduced fuel costs offered by electric vehicles (EVs) to amortize their higher purchase prices.

2020 264

Global investment in renewable power reached $270.2B in 2014, ~17% up from 2013; biofuel investment fell 8% to 10-year low

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Global investment in renewable power and fuels (excluding large hydro-electric projects) was $270.2 This marked the first annual increase in dollar commitments to renewables—excluding large hydro—for three years, and brought the total up to just 3% below the all-time record of $278.8 billion of final investment decisions on offshore wind projects in Europe. of world electricity generation in 2014, compared to 8.5% This would be equivalent to a saving of 1.3

2015 219

Global biofuels production up 17% in 2010 to hit all-time high of 105 billion liters

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Global production of biofuels increased 17% in 2010 to reach an all-time high of 105 billion liters (28 billion gallons US), up from 90 billion liters (24 billion gallons US) in 2009. of all global fuel for road transportation—an increase from 2% in 2009, according to the report. The two biofuel alternatives to fossil fuels for transportation largely consist of ethanol and biodiesel. Virtually all of the 1.5

2011 220

IHS Markit: US oil production growth heading for a major slowdown, as capital discipline and weak prices play out

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US shale production—the chief source of rapid growth that made the United States the world’s largest oil producer—is slowing down fast, says a new report by IHS Markit. The new IHS Markit outlook for oil market fundamentals for 2019-2021 expects total US production growth to be 440,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2020 before essentially flattening out in 2021. The key challenge for producers now is to meet investors’ new focus on return of capital.

2019 163

US Shale Is Now Cash Flow Neutral

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by Nick Cunningham of Oil prices are probably already high enough to spark a rebound in shale production. The IEA says that in the third quarter of 2016, the US shale industry became cash flow neutral for the first time ever. Even when US oil production hit a peak at 9.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2015, the industry did not break even. Of course, OPEC cheating is a possibility.

2016 203

Sasol bails on $13-$15B US GTL project, divests from Canadian shale; no new greenfield GTL

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In January 2015 Sasol announced it was delaying a final investment decision on the proposed project near Lake Charles, Louisiana to conserve cash in response to lower oil prices. The estimated cost of the project ranges between $13 billion and $15 billion. Joint President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Stephen Cornell added that Sasol will maintain its industry-leading position in Fischer-Tropsch (FT) technology.

2017 150

IHS Markit: conventional oil & gas discoveries at lowest levels in 70 years; major rebound unlikely

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Conventional oil and gas discoveries during the past three years are at the lowest levels in seven decades and a significant rebound is not expected, according to a new report by global business information provider IHS Markit. The low levels in discoveries come as a result of a pullback during the past 10 years in the wildcat drilling that targets conventional oil and gas plays—most drastically after oil prices collapsed in 2014.

2019 183

IRENA report finds renewable power costs at parity or below fossil fuels in many parts of world

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The cost of generating power from renewable energy sources has reached parity or dropped below the cost of fossil fuels for many technologies in many parts of the world, according to a new report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Solar photovoltaic (PV) is leading the cost decline, with solar PV module costs falling 75% since the end of 2009 and the cost of electricity from utility-scale solar PV falling 50% since 2010.

2015 303

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. The United States has been a net importer of energy since the 1950s. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2015 197

ADB approves $240M to help Kazakhstan modernize transport, improve connectivity

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The project will reconstruct and upgrade about 299 km (186 miles) of a deteriorated section of the Aktobe–Makat road in the western part of the country, and introduce a modern transport information system to increase road traffic safety and logistics effectiveness. It will also establish fast transportation links connecting Astana and Aktobe with the major oil and mineral–rich city of Atyrau, and the country’s only international commercial seaport in Aktau.

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

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The newly released 2013 edition of the IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) depicts a world in which some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten; importers are becoming exporters, while exporters are among the major sources of growing demand. However, the report advises, long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce; as one example, the report sees global CO 2 emissions rising by 20% to 37.2 Africa today is home to nearly half of the 1.3

2013 233

The Next Big Offshore Boom Is About To Happen in Brazil

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Say what you will about offshore oil and gas exploration, but it’s still alive and kicking—high production costs and all. The latest demonstration of the viability of deepwater projects, even in the post-2014 oil industry era, comes from none other than Brazil. On Wednesday, the country’s National Petroleum Agency put 287 oil and gas blocks up for auction, and only 37 found buyers. Brazil Oilby Irina Slav for

Brazil 150

ICCT updates US airline fuel efficiency rankings; Alaska stays on top, American on bottom

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The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has released its annual update on the fuel efficiency of US airlines. The report, which covers US airlines in domestic operations in 2014, highlights a continuing gap in the carbon intensity of US carriers, and comes as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) meets in Montreal to debate proposals that will serve as the basis for future US regulation. A higher FES denotes higher fuel efficiency, and an FES of 1.00

2015 214

Alternative Fuel Technologies, Inc. Receives New Order for DME Feed Pumps From Shanghai Diesel Engine Company

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The value of this order is confidential. Shanghai Diesel Engine Company is owned by Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corporation (SAIC), one of the top three automotive corporations in China. is a research & development organization engaged in the design, development and prototype manufacturing of advanced fuel systems for use with DME. The company’s ultima goal is series production of DME fuel systems for the global automotive market by 2011.

2010 204

KPMG study identifies 10 sustainability “megaforces” with accelerating impacts on business; imperative of sustainability changing the automotive business radically

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KPMG developed 3 nexuses linked by climate change to represent the challenges of sustainable growth. In a new study, KPMG International has identified 10 “megaforces” that will significantly affect corporate growth globally over the next two decades. The KPMG research finds that the external environmental costs of 11 key industry sectors jumped 50% from US$566 to US$846 billion in 8 years (2002 to 2010), averaging a doubling of these costs every 14 years.

2012 256

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

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According to a recently published report commissioned by the Victoria (Australia) Department of Transport from AECOM, electric vehicle (EV) technology offers the state of Victoria potentially significant economic benefits by the late 2020s. Such economic benefits could be realized earlier through effective policies which reduce first mover costs in the short term and promote rapid take-up once non-ICE vehicle price premiums reduce to levels that make them affordable to.

2011 190

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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However, energy use per capita declines by 15% from 2011 through 2040 as a result of improving energy efficiency (e.g., Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 Net imports of energy decline.

2012 200

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

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BCG’s analysis finds that cellulosic ethanol is on the verge of becoming cost-competitive with gasoline at $3/gal US. Advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power (CSP), and solar photovoltaic power (PV) will see accelerating adoption and growth and are on track to change the global energy mix far earlier than is often assumed, according to a new report from The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Can it overcome barriers to rapid adoption once cost-competitive?

2010 246

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

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Technically feasible levels of energy efficiency and decarbonized energy supply alone will not be sufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, according to a detailed modeling of the California economy performed by a team from Energy and Environmental Economics, the Monterey. Institute of International Studies, University of. forecasts of population and gross state product, combined. The largest share of GHG reductions.

2011 224

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

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The MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) has released a report on the proceedings—and papers that informed those proceedings—of the 8 April 2010 symposium on The Electrification of the Transportation System: Issues and Opportunities. The resulting report reflects the major points of discussion, and presents a range of possible next steps for the consideration of policy makers and other interested individuals and entities.

2011 218

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. The International Energy Agency (IEA) last week launched the 2011 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO), the current edition of its annual flagship publication assessing the threats and opportunities facing the global energy system out to 2035. While there is still time to act, the window of opportunity is closing. billion, around 20% of the world’s population.

2011 215

National Research Council report finds it unlikely the US will meet cellulosic biofuel mandates absent major innovation or a change in policies

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In the absence of major technological innovations or policy changes, the United States is unlikely to meet cellulosic biofuel mandates under the current Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) by 2022, according to a new report from the National Research Council. In 2005, Congress enacted the Renewable Fuel Standard as part of the Energy Policy Act (EPAct) and amended it in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA).

2011 218

Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

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World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. In the first half of the year, producers strained to meet global demand, but when the recession took hold later in the year the market was swamped by excess supply. Energy prices reflected this shift: oil peaked at $144 per barrel in July, then fell to $34 per barrel in December.

2008 150

Perspective: Toyota Prius Recall Is Only a Bump in the Road in the Move Toward Electrification

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Perspective by Oliver Hazimeh, Director of the North American Automotive Practice and the Global e-Mobility Practice, PRTM. The recall of Toyota’s Prius is causing some observers to question whether the prospects for the entire hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and electric vehicle (EV) markets are fundamentally hurt. Current lessons will not only help Toyota but the industry as a whole.

2010 174

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

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The study found that for small and medium passenger vehicles, expected lifetime cost per kilometer for EVs is already lower than that of conventional ICE. The total cost of ownership includes the vehicle price, annual fuel and maintenance costs and insurance. Future costs have been discounted at 7%. AECOM is a global provider of professional technical and management support services to a broad range of markets.

Perspective: US Needs to Transition to Hydrous Ethanol as the Primary Renewable Transportation Fuel

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Use of Hydrous Ethanol in Brazil. The oil price shocks of the 1970s led the Brazilian government to address the strain high prices were placing on its fragile economy. Brazil, the largest and most populous country in South America, was importing 80% of its oil and 40% of its foreign exchange was used to pay for that imported oil. Both production and consumption of ethanol were basically flat for much of the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s.

2009 261

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

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Examples of emerging oil sands related technologies and trade-offs. The paper is an examination of how various choices about the scale of the life cycle analysis applied to oil sands (i.e., system boundaries) determine the emissions estimates, the technologies available to reduce emissions, and perspectives and strategies of stakeholders. Both those claims can be defended, with the discrepancies arising “ from an artful choice of the scale of analysis.”.

2010 200

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

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A joint MIT/RAND study of the near-term commercial feasibility of alternative jet fuels has concluded that three types of alternative jet fuels may be available in commercial quantities over the next decade: Jet A derived from Canadian oil sands and Venezuelan Very Heavy Oils (VHO); Fischer-Tropsch (FT) jet fuel produced from coal, a combination of coal and biomass, or natural gas; and hydrotreated renewable jet fuel (HRJ) produced by hydroprocessing renewable oils.

2009 217

CAR releases study on use of bio-based materials in automotive sector; potential for the Great Lakes Region

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There is significant potential for the expansion of bio-based automotive parts and components manufacturing in the US Great Lakes region, according to a newly-released study conducted by the Center for Automotive Research (CAR), a nonprofit research organization based in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The report defines bio-based materials as industrial products made from renewable agricultural and forestry feedstocks, which can include wood, grasses, and crops, as well as wastes and residues.

2012 195

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

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DNV GL has released a position paper on the future alternative fuel mix for global shipping. While LNG is expected to be an early success, the picture becomes more diversified over time, as more than 20% of shipping could adopt hybrid propulsion solutions featuring batteries or other energy storage technologies, according to the paper. Breaking this deadlock will require a coordinated, industry- wide effort and the political will to invest in the development of new infrastructure.

2014 204

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

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The US Department of Energy released its inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report (DOE-QTR)—an assessment of the Department’s energy technology research and development portfolios. The DOE-QTR defines six key strategies: increase vehicle efficiency; electrification of the light duty fleet; deploy alternative fuels; increase building and industrial efficiency; modernize the electrical grid; and deploy clean electricity.

2011 195

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

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Accenture timeline for evolution of electrification technologies, the “game-changing” subset of the disruptive technologies. Accenture has identified 12 technologies that it concludes have the potential to disrupt the current views of transport fuels supply, demand and GHG emissions over the next 10 years. by 2014) and also examines different global markets. Will be competitive at an oil price of $45 to $90 at their commercial date.

2009 224

Nissan’s Big Gamble

Revenge of the Electric Car

I’m kind of excited to see this car, having tested the drivetrain in the Nissan Cube. Since the Cube is 200 lbs heavier than the final body of the EV, it should be a bit quicker still. The best thing about the Nissan is the expected price range of $25K- $34K. Those who make the decisions to forgo battery EVs in favor of plug- in hybrids only ignore a sizable market. The benefits overwhelm the perceived problem of range. Of this I am certain.

2009 116

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

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A new study sponsored by Indiana University concludes that President Obama’s vision of one million plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) on US roads by 2015 will require concentrated efforts action from all stakeholders— the auto industry, federal government, the scientific community, and consumers—to be realized. Graham, dean of the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at IU. The chairman of the IU panel, former Ford Motor Co.

2011 195

Chevron leveraging information technology to optimize thermal production of heavy oil with increased recovery and reduced costs

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Chevron’s focus on optimizing the thermal management of the Kern River field has resulted in a steady drop in the steam:oil ratio (barrels steam water per barrel oil), resulting in improved economics of the field even with slowly declining production. Chevron, already the largest thermal heavy oil producer, is optimizing thermal production in heavy oil fields by leveraging information technology to improve the percentage recovery as well as the economics.

2011 212

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

A Perfect Storm for Water Counting Calories and Counting Carbon: The Role of. Early Days in the Obama Administration An Address I'd Like to Hear Global Warming Solutions Included in Transportatio. Thinking Globally, Acting Locally San Francisco City Carbon Collobarative 18th and 1. Review of Forestry Carbon Standards 2008 Ford Partners to Commercialize Electric Vehicles A New "Green" Deal.Direction for the economic re.

2009 28