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How crude-oil prices influence gasoline prices

Green Car Congress

Gasoline is one of the products refined from crude oil. Thus, the price of crude oil should have a strong influence on the price of gasoline. However, the retail price of gasoline includes other costs as well. Gasoline prices are also influenced by gasoline demand relative to gasoline supply.

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DOE: Adjusted for inflation, the price of gasoline in 2019 was similar to the price in 1929

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The average annual price of gasoline has fluctuated greatly over the past several decades, but when adjusted for inflation (constant dollars), the price of gasoline in 2019 was only nine cents higher than in 1929, according to the US Department of Energy (DOE). The graph below shows the effect of the oil embargo in the early 1980s.

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EIA: Strong demand for diesel leads to high prices and tight inventories going into winter

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ULSD is the most widely consumed form of distillate fuel oil. In October 2022, the United States had 25 days of supply of distillate, the fewest since 2008, the EIA said. US inventories of distillate fuel oil have been below the previous five-year (2017–21) low since the start of 2022.

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Commentary: Could falling oil prices spark a financial crisis?

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The oil and gas boom in the United States was made possible by the extensive credit afforded to drillers. As is the nature of the junk-bond market, lots of money flowed to companies with much riskier drilling prospects than, say, the oil majors. The situation will compound itself if oil prices stay low.

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EIA: high prices for natural gas this winter as global consumption remains high and inventories low

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The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects higher-than-average natural gas prices globally as demand remains high this winter in the United States, Europe, and Asia, and inventories remain low. That price will be the highest inflation-adjusted monthly average price since 2008.

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IHS Markit: global oil demand still growing in the short term despite increasing focus on EVs

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Short-term oil demand is still growing strong and will continue to do so through the end of 2020 despite the market’s increasing focus on electric vehicles and the forecasted future plateau in oil demand, according to new analysis from IHS Markit, a global business information provider. Source: IHS Markit 2018.

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Opinion: Oil Price War May Benefit both US Shale and Saudi Arabia

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Even as financial commentators on CNBC are starting to come around to the idea of a bottom in oil prices, the key question for US oil producers remains one of timing. How long will the oil price slump last? Is this a relatively short term event like 2008, or a longer term slump like the one in the mid 1980’s?