Light, Oil Prices and Standards

Study estimates fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles from 1975–2018 saved 2T gallons of fuel, 17B tons of CO2

Green Car Congress

MAY 3, 2020

They further estimated that roughly one-fifth of the savings can be attributed to gasoline price increases over the period and four-fifths to fuel economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) standards. Estimated attribution of fuel savings due to fuel economy improvements to light-duty vehicles since 1975. Greene et al. has almost doubled.

Fuel Economy

Fuel Economy Economy Light 2018

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 22, 2014

The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Carbon

Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024

Green Car Congress

APRIL 8, 2015

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that total annual global light-duty start-stop vehicle (SSVs) sales will reach 59 million, accounting for 55% of all light duty vehicle sales.

Light

Light North America Global Sale

Study Finds That CO2 Standards for Vehicles Can Reduce Price of Oil

Green Car Congress

APRIL 10, 2009

A new study by the French institute Enerdata, commissioned by the European Federation for Transport & Environment (T&E), suggests that the European CO 2 standards for new vehicles due to come into effect in 2012 will lead not only to a European savings on oil (mainly via lower oil import volumes) but also to slightly lower global oil prices.

Oil

Oil Standards Price Oil Prices

Sandia study finds meeting RFS2 requirements unlikely without stronger enforcement mechanism; the importance of drop-in biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 6, 2014

The Sandia researchers showed that the key to meeting the RFS2 targets is the fuel price differential between E85 fuel and conventional gasoline (low ethanol blends), so that E85 owners refuel with E85 whenever possible. Among their findings were: RFS2 is satisfied at extreme oil prices (at least $215/barrel). Barter, Dawn K.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Gasoline-Electric Gasoline Oil

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

Energy consumption by light-duty vehicles in the United States, AEO2013 and AEO2014, 1995-2040 (quadrillion Btu). annual increase in fuel economy from 2012 to 2040 as a result of GHG emission and fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and engines. LDV energy consumption declines in AEO2014 Reference case from 16.0

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

EIA: world petroleum use sets record high in 2012 despite declines in North America and Europe

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 27, 2013

In 2011 and 2012, higher oil prices and increased fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles contributed to reduced US consumption. Increased consumption in 2010 reflected improving economic conditions.

North America

North America 2012 America Europe

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy. Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

It also updated the costs and sizes of electric and plug-in hybrid electric batteries and revised downward light-duty vehicle travel demand due to the adoption of a new estimation technique. The fuel economy standards are increased through model year 2020 to meet the statutory requirements of EISA2007. Unconventional vehicle sales.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. There is pressure to make European standards even more aggressive.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 28, 2011

The DOE-QTR defines six key strategies: increase vehicle efficiency; electrification of the light duty fleet; deploy alternative fuels; increase building and industrial efficiency; modernize the electrical grid; and deploy clean electricity. Impartial DOE research can help inform these standards.

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Economy Light Fuel

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

Emissions per capita fall by an average of 1% per year from 2005 to 2035, as growth in demand for transportation fuels is moderated by higher energy prices and Federal fuel economy standards. World oil prices rise in the Reference case, as pressure from growth in global demand continues.

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Green Car Congress

JUNE 7, 2017

A new study by researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder projects the emission impacts of the widespread introduction of inexpensive and efficient electric vehicles into the US light duty vehicle (LDV) sector. The database includes joint Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and GHG emission standards for LDVs.

Emissions

Emissions Economy Gasoline-Electric Coal

Economic Impact Study Finds Grid-Enabled Vehicle Policies in Electrification Coalition Roadmap Would Result in Substantial Economic Benefit for US

Green Car Congress

APRIL 9, 2010

The Roadmap proposes completely transforming the US light-duty vehicle fleet into one in which grid-enabled mobility (grid-enabled vehicles, GEV) is the new conventional standard. By 2040, the report proposed, 75% of the light-duty vehicle miles traveled in the US should be electric miles. Global Demand for Oil.

Grid

Grid Vehicles 2008 Oil

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

Level 1 charging only requires a standard power. travelled (high, medium and low), and vehicle type (passenger, light commercial, or taxi). The analysis is based on central forecasts of oil price, electricity. However, as EV and PHEV prices gradually reach. Scenario 1. Assumes there is Level 1 household charging.

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

Market-based mechanisms (MBMs) are an option as complementary policy to vehicle CO 2 standards, fuels and infrastructure policies generating funds for member states to support new ultra-low-carbon vehicle and fuel technologies. For the model, the team derived a likely powertrain mix for different vehicle groups until 2030.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

NRC projections of number of PHEVs in the US light-duty fleet. Costs of light-duty plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are high—largely due to their lithium-ion batteries—and unlikely to drastically decrease in the near future, according to a new report from the National Research Council (NRC). Click to enlarge.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 25, 2009

The expected influx of large amounts of alcohol-based fuels and fuels derived from unconventional petroleum over the next decade may cause long-term world oil prices to be between 5 and 12% lower than they would be in the absence of those fuels. Adverse effects of ULS jet fuel would include higher fuel prices (by about $0.05

MIT

MIT Oil-Sands Commercial Available

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 27, 2011

jurisdiction over electricity supply, transportation planning, building standards, and other key components of an energy. of vehicle miles traveled—including almost all light duty. improvements in building shell, HVAC systems, lighting, and. reduction in fuel costs even with electricity prices doubled. appliances.

Climate

Climate California Fuel Gas-Electric

Comprehensive modeling study finds electric drive vehicle deployment has little observed effect on US system-wide emissions

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 15, 2014

The results of a new, comprehensive modeling study characterizing light-duty electric drive vehicle (EDV) deployment in the US over 108 discrete scenarios do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x as EDV deployment increases. —Babaee et al.

Emissions

Emissions Oil Prices Vehicles Oil

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. Historical scenario. (A)

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 18, 2010

The study examined eleven market segments: Passenger Vehicles by vehicle size (small, medium, large) and by distance travelled (low, medium and high vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT)); Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV); and Taxis.

Australia

Australia Market Plug-in Plug

Iveco step up production of biomethane-powered vehicle

Green Cars News

APRIL 27, 2009

Iveco’s natural gas powered Daily is built as a dedicated alternative fuel vehicle at the company’s production plant in Suzzara, Italy, and is subjected to the same build-quality standards as a line-built diesel. The complete range of gas powered Daily’s extends to 28 different models available in the UK, plated between 3.5

Power

Power Powered Production Vehicles

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035. Oil and the Transport Sector: Reconfirming the End of Cheap Oil. Passenger light-duty vehicles.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Study details viable pathway to develop sustainable aviation biofuels industry in Pacific Northwest; hydroprocessing of natural oils seen as the most immediate opportunity

Green Car Congress

MAY 25, 2011

Natural bio-oils have carbon chain lengths that are in the diesel range, 16-18 carbon atoms in the hydrocarbon. More light hydrocarbons like LPG and Naphtha are produced in the renewable jet than renewable diesel process. Standard 2 (RFS2) Program. renewable diesel.

Oil

Oil Industrial Industry Renewable

Nissan’s Big Gamble

Revenge of the Electric Car

JULY 14, 2009

Pricing isn’t set. Oil vs. electrons. But Ghosn thinks rising oil prices will tilt the economics in favor of electrons. If crude oil rises above $80 a barrel, Nissan’s electric vehicles will be cheaper to own and operate than gasoline-powered cars, he says. Batteries are expensive.

Nissan

Nissan Japan United States Gasoline-Electric

Bank of America: Oil Demand Growth to Hit Zero Within a Decade, EVs the Culprit

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Any major disruption to cobalt today would likely curb EV proliferation in the early 2020s, in turn supporting long dated crude oil prices,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned. That would alter oil demand forecasts, but in complicated ways. The EV market is also rife with uncertainty. That has mostly run its course.

Oil

Oil America Oil Prices South Africa

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

Review of Forestry Carbon Standards 2008 Ford Partners to Commercialize Electric Vehicles A New "Green" Deal.Direction for the economic re. 1) Nurture My Body (1) OESX (1) OIL ETN (1) OTCBB:PPRW (1) Oasys (1) Ocean Dead Zones (1) PLX Devices (1) PNE3.DE Renewables That Even Coal-Based Utilities Can Love. SZ (1) 6753.T

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

EV Driven

Study estimates fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles from 1975–2018 saved 2T gallons of fuel, 17B tons of CO2

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024

Study Finds That CO2 Standards for Vehicles Can Reduce Price of Oil

Sandia study finds meeting RFS2 requirements unlikely without stronger enforcement mechanism; the importance of drop-in biofuels

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

EIA: world petroleum use sets record high in 2012 despite declines in North America and Europe

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Economic Impact Study Finds Grid-Enabled Vehicle Policies in Electrification Coalition Roadmap Would Result in Substantial Economic Benefit for US

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

Comprehensive modeling study finds electric drive vehicle deployment has little observed effect on US system-wide emissions

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

Iveco step up production of biomethane-powered vehicle

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Study details viable pathway to develop sustainable aviation biofuels industry in Pacific Northwest; hydroprocessing of natural oils seen as the most immediate opportunity

Nissan’s Big Gamble

Bank of America: Oil Demand Growth to Hit Zero Within a Decade, EVs the Culprit

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Stay Connected