Green Car Congress

APRIL 9, 2010

The Inforum LIFT model is a detailed economic forecasting model, which captures, among other things, the effects of purchases and sales between industries. Global Demand for Oil. World demand for oil would fall, leading to lower world oil prices. Resilience to Future Price Shocks. Trade Deficit.

Grid 186

Grid 2008 Vehicles Oil 186

Green Car Congress

JULY 14, 2009

In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. The high rate of adoption is driven by the low purchase price and operating costs of electric cars with switchable batteries.

Electric Cars 150

Electric Cars Batteries Battery Market 150

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 13, 2011

The report notes that these estimates are highly subject to variation and could be altered by unexpected shocks such as a major oil price spike or by planned conditions such as aggressive incentive programs. —CAR study. Click to enlarge. Deployment Rollout Estimate of Electric Vehicles 2011-2105.

2015 236

2015 Electric Vehicles Vehicles Sale 236

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2010

It discriminates both on its face, and as applied, against transportation fuels and fuel feedstocks imported from outside of California with the intended effect of (i) promoting in-state production of transportation fuels, and (ii) “keep[ing] consumer dollars local by reducing the need to make fuel purchases from beyond [California’s] borders.”.

California 199

California Oil-Sands Oil 2005 199

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. The decline reflects increased domestic production of both petroleum and natural gas, increased use of biofuels, and lower demand resulting from the adoption of new vehicle fuel efficiency standards and rising energy prices. Biomass and biofuels growth is slower.

Fuel 225

Fuel Energy Sale 2013 225

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 25, 2009

The focus of the work was on alternative jet fuels that could be available commercially in the next decade using primarily North American resources. For world crude oil prices in the range of $100 per barrel, this amounts to a price impact of roughly $5 to $13 per barrel. million bpd. Hileman, David S. Ortiz, James T.

MIT 250

MIT Oil-Sands Commercial Available 250

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 27, 2011

produced more detailed analyses, but none combines the sectoral granularity, physical and resource constraints, and geographic scale needed for developing realistic technology and policy roadmaps. policies; long term rates of technology introduction were constrained by physical feasibility, resource availability, and historical uptake rates.

Climate 262

Climate California Fuel Gas-Electric 262

Green Car Congress

APRIL 12, 2012

They assessed purchaser technology choice for new vehicles on a cost-effectiveness basis using net present value (NPV) as a decision criterion, with parameters chosen to take account of factors such as consumer myopia with regard to fuel cost savings. R&D as above, plus a €3000/vehicle purchase subsidy for fuel cell electric vehicles.

Transportation 199

Transportation Europe Climate Change Emissions 199

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. —Brandt et al.

Oil 207

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation 207

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 18, 2010

The economic model considers the costs and benefits to infrastructure providers, consumers (in terms of vehicle purchase and operating costs) and externalities such as greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. The financial model considers the costs and benefits only to infrastructure providers and consumers. 2009, AECOM).

Australia 199

Australia Market Plug-in Plug 199

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 30, 2009

The oil price shocks of the 1970s led the Brazilian government to address the strain high prices were placing on its fragile economy. Brazil, the largest and most populous country in South America, was importing 80% of its oil and 40% of its foreign exchange was used to pay for that imported oil. by Brian J.

Transportation 317

Transportation Fuel Renewable Gasoline-Electric 317

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 14, 2009

Given high initial costs, volatile oil prices, improving competition, an industry in poor financial shape and consumers who aren’t perfectly rational.who actually are quite risk averse.advanced technology may be a hard sell. The net effect of correcting this problem will be pressure on purchase prices first and operating costs second.

PHEV 150

PHEV Fuel Economy San Diego Climate Change 150

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 8, 2011

The cumulative impacts of the various policy initiatives, the experience of the early purchasers of electric-drive vehicles and future oil prices will all play a role in determining future consumer demand. —One Million Electric Vehicles by 2015. One Million Electric Vehicles by 2015.

2015 210

2015 Plug-in Tax Credit Plug 210

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 4, 2011

However, consumers’ willingness to purchase flex-fuel vehicles and use E85 instead of lower blends of ethanol in their vehicles will likely depend on the price of ethanol and their attitude toward biofuels. The resulting consensus reports undergo external peer review before completion.

Renewable 252

Renewable Tax Credit Conversion Fuel 252

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 4, 2011

However, consumer demand for PEVs is quite uncertain and, barring another global spike in oil prices, may be limited to a minor percentage of new vehicle purchasers (e.g., Automakers could ramp up PEV production if consumer demand proves to be larger than expected. Market Drivers. Early Adopters vs. Mainstream Car Buyers.

Plug-in 218

Plug-in 2015 Plug Recharge 218

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 15, 2014

No EDV deployment occurs with high battery costs, low oil prices, and no CO 2 policy. higher oil prices, a CO 2 policy, lower battery cost—the median market shares increase. higher oil prices, a CO 2 policy, lower battery cost—the median market shares increase. decrease in total CO 2 in 2050. …it

Emissions 236

Emissions Oil Prices Vehicles Oil 236

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 13, 2015

In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market’s swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices. Prices rebounded to $60 for a few months, before falling once again below $50.

Saudi Arabia 150

Saudi Arabia Oil Iraq Iran 150

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 12, 2016

And, by reducing dependence on foreign oil imports, AVTA will no longer be subject to oil price volatility for its bus fleet—helping to create greater stability for budget forecasting for the fleet manager.

All-Electric 150

All-Electric Fleet BYD Los Angeles 150

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035. Oil and the Transport Sector: Reconfirming the End of Cheap Oil. Click to enlarge. Electric vehicles.

Oil 247

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet 247

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 18, 2010

purchase cost of gasoline engines is some €1500 lower than of diesel engines. They assumed an oil price of US$80/bbl, close to the short-term. Resources. We therefore. expect our findings on the impact of charging patterns on demand to be applicable to. industrialised countries. ” —van Vliet et al. Brouwer, T.

Plug-in 236

Plug-in Charging PHEV Gasoline-Electric 236

Green Car Congress

JULY 19, 2012

Very broadly, they found that an LCFS would buffer the economy against global oil price spikes, trim demand for petroleum, and lessen upward pressure on gas prices. Purchase credits from other regulated parties or use credits banked in previous years. Many options exist for meeting the standard. There will be a process.

Carbon 247

Carbon Oil-Sands Standards Design 247

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 25, 2011

If the US military increases its use of alternative jet and naval fuels that can be produced from coal or various renewable resources, including seed oils, waste oils and algae, there will be no direct benefit to the nation’s armed forces, according to a new RAND Corporation study. The Prospects for Commercial Production.

Alternative Fuels 244

Alternative Fuels Fuel Energy Coal 244