Cost Of, Future, Oil Prices and Transportation

The Next Oil Price Spike May Cripple The Industry

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 25, 2017

Two diametrically opposed views dominate the current debate about where the oil price is heading. The second is that under the best of circumstances it will take the EV industry close to another decade to close this cost of ownership gap. Why an oil price spike would be bad for the industry. Since (non-U.S.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Industrial Industry

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 13, 2011

The MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) has released a report on the proceedings—and papers that informed those proceedings—of the 8 April 2010 symposium on The Electrification of the Transportation System: Issues and Opportunities. Currently, petroleum almost exclusively fuels the United States (US) transportation system.

Transportation

Transportation MIT Oil Prices Oil

Biosyncrude Gasification Process Could Produce Motor Fuel at Cost of Around $3/gallon

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 31, 2009

A crude oil price of US$100/bbl results in an approximate cost of €0.56/L Biomass is pyrolized to a pyrolysis oil. The pyrolysis oil is mixed with pyrolysis coke from the process to create a biocrude slurry for transport and subsequent gasification to syngas and subsequent catalytic conversion to chemicals and/or fuels.

Cost Of

Cost Of Motor Motors Motoring

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 28, 2011

Broad findings of the DOE-QTR include: DOE should give greater emphasis to the transport sector relative to the stationary sector. Among the transport strategies, DOE will devote its greatest effort to electrification of the vehicle fleet, a sweet spot for pre-competitive DOE R&D. DOE has particular capabilities in these areas.

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Economy Light Fuel

ICCT updates US airline fuel efficiency rankings; Alaska stays on top, American on bottom

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 22, 2015

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has released its annual update on the fuel efficiency of US airlines. The Fuel Efficiency Score (FES) is a unitless fuel efficiency metric that indicates the transport service provided by an airline per unit fuel consumed relative to other airlines. Earlier post.)

Alaska

Alaska Fuel 2014 2013

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 10, 2009

Accenture has identified 12 technologies that it concludes have the potential to disrupt the current views of transport fuels supply, demand and GHG emissions over the next 10 years. Will be competitive at an oil price of $45 to $90 at their commercial date. Source: Accenture. Click to enlarge. Waste-to-fuel.

Transportation

Transportation Supplies Emissions Fuel

Univ of Washington team working to make poplar coppice viable cheap, high-volume biofuel feedstock

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 17, 2017

Their results, published recently in two papers—one in ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering and the other in Biotechnology for Biofuels (open access)—point to a promising future for using poplar coppice for biofuel. Research is underway to convert this bio-oil to a transportation fuel that resembles gasoline or diesel.

Washington

Washington Cheap Oil Universal

Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

Green Car Congress

MARCH 19, 2012

Governments and vehicle manufacturers will need to introduce long-term incentives and price cuts to create a sustainable European market for ultra-low emission vans (ULEV), according to a newly published report by Element Energy, commissioned by the UK Department for Transport. Fuel cell system cost projections over time and volume.

Emissions

Emissions Manufacturer Market Price

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 15, 2010

Bergerson and Keith pay particular attention to CCS, showing how divergent views about its cost effectiveness emerge from divergent choices about the scale of analysis. However, this only accounts for the processing that occurs in Canada and therefore excludes much of the refining and transport emissions.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil Emissions Coal

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

According to a recently published report commissioned by the Victoria (Australia) Department of Transport from AECOM, electric vehicle (EV) technology offers the state of Victoria potentially significant economic benefits by the late 2020s. The analysis is based on central forecasts of oil price, electricity. Source: AECOM.

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

GM and Hawaii Gas Company to Collaborate on Hydrogen Infrastructure Pilot; Different Approach to Provisioning Fueling Stations

Green Car Congress

MAY 11, 2010

The cost of deploying a PSA system and associated refueling pump at a fueling stations will be on the order of $300,000 to $500,000, said Jeff Kissel, president and CEO of TGC during a briefing on the announcement—about one-quarter of the cost of currently installing a more conventional hydrogen fueling station in the US. Jeff Kissel.

Hawaii

Hawaii Hydrogen GM Gas

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. The AEO2013 reference case projects delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector to remain relatively constant at about 27 quadrillion Btu from 2011 to 2040. Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. Click to enlarge. than in AEO2012.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

KPMG study identifies 10 sustainability “megaforces” with accelerating impacts on business; imperative of sustainability changing the automotive business radically

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 15, 2012

The analysis examines how these global forces may impact business and industry; calculates the environmental costs to business; and calls for business and policymakers to work more closely to mitigate future business risk and act on opportunities. Source: KPMG. Click to enlarge. billion in 2005.

Climate Change

Climate Change Water Climate Global

Sandia Labs/GM Biofuels Systems Study Concludes Large-Scale Production of Advanced Biofuels is Achievable and Sustainable

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 10, 2009

The study, said Robert Carling, Director, Transportation Energy Center at Sandia, represents the first true value-chain approach to assessing the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of large-scale production of biofuels in the United States. In the study, conversion technologies are linked with specific feedstocks.

GM

GM Production Conversion Oil Prices

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Green Car Congress

JULY 14, 2009

In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. The high rate of adoption is driven by the low purchase price and operating costs of electric cars with switchable batteries.

Electric Cars

Electric Cars Batteries Battery Market

National Research Council report finds it unlikely the US will meet cellulosic biofuel mandates absent major innovation or a change in policies

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 4, 2011

A key barrier to achieving RFS2 is the high cost of producing biofuels compared to petroleum-based fuels and the large capital investments required to put billions of gallons of production capacity in place. Such land conversion may disrupt any future potential for storing carbon in biomass and soil.

Renewable

Renewable Tax Credit Conversion Standards

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

AEO2012 also projects that efficiency improvements mostly offset underlying drivers of growth in transportation services. EIA added a premium to the capital cost of CO 2 -intensive technologies to reflect current market behavior regarding possible future policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Click to enlarge.

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 29, 2014

DNV GL has released a position paper on the future alternative fuel mix for global shipping. DNV GL is studying a number of alternative fuels or energy carriers that are already used or could be potentially used in shipping in the future. Well-to-Propeller GHG emissions results for marine alternative fuels. Source: DNV GL.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Fuel Gas-Electric Mariner

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 18, 2010

The study found that for small and medium passenger vehicles, expected lifetime cost per kilometer for EVs is already lower than that of conventional ICE. The total cost of ownership includes the vehicle price, annual fuel and maintenance costs and insurance. Future costs have been discounted at 7%.

Australia

Australia Market Plug-in Plug

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

Costs of light-duty plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are high—largely due to their lithium-ion batteries—and unlikely to drastically decrease in the near future, according to a new report from the National Research Council (NRC). Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles”.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 4, 2011

2011-25), recognizing that the transportation electrification process will evolve in stages based on the learning that occurs in the years and decades ahead. However, consumer demand for PEVs is quite uncertain and, barring another global spike in oil prices, may be limited to a minor percentage of new vehicle purchasers (e.g.,

Plug-in

Plug-in 2015 Plug Recharge

IHS-CERA concludes “no material impact” on US GHG from Keystone XL; heavy crude from Venezuela most likely replacement

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 9, 2013

The proposed Keystone XL pipeline for transporting oilsands-derived crude to Gulf Coast refineries would have “ no material impact ” on US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according to a new Insight report by IHS CERA. Future price volatility is to be expected. —IHS CERA Insight.

Venezuela

Venezuela Oil-Sands Oil Canada

Study details viable pathway to develop sustainable aviation biofuels industry in Pacific Northwest; hydroprocessing of natural oils seen as the most immediate opportunity

Green Car Congress

MAY 25, 2011

The Pacific Northwest has the diverse feedstocks, fuel-delivery infrastructure and political will needed to create a viable biofuels industry capable of reducing greenhouse gases and meeting the future fuel demands of the aviation industry, according to a newly-released study by Sustainable Aviation Fuels Northwest (SAFN). renewable diesel.

Oil

Oil Industrial Industry Renewable

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

In the future, utilities will pay you to plug-in your vehicle. For the future, Renault is working on development of exchangeable batteries for continuous mobility. Annual use of an EV should be less than the average cost of $8,000 per year for using a gasoline in many countries including the USA. SZ (1) 6753.T SZ (1) 6753.T

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

EV Driven

The Next Oil Price Spike May Cripple The Industry

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Biosyncrude Gasification Process Could Produce Motor Fuel at Cost of Around $3/gallon

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

ICCT updates US airline fuel efficiency rankings; Alaska stays on top, American on bottom

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Univ of Washington team working to make poplar coppice viable cheap, high-volume biofuel feedstock

Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

GM and Hawaii Gas Company to Collaborate on Hydrogen Infrastructure Pilot; Different Approach to Provisioning Fueling Stations

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

KPMG study identifies 10 sustainability “megaforces” with accelerating impacts on business; imperative of sustainability changing the automotive business radically

Sandia Labs/GM Biofuels Systems Study Concludes Large-Scale Production of Advanced Biofuels is Achievable and Sustainable

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

National Research Council report finds it unlikely the US will meet cellulosic biofuel mandates absent major innovation or a change in policies

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

IHS-CERA concludes “no material impact” on US GHG from Keystone XL; heavy crude from Venezuela most likely replacement

Study details viable pathway to develop sustainable aviation biofuels industry in Pacific Northwest; hydroprocessing of natural oils seen as the most immediate opportunity

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Stay Connected