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Opinion: Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Oil Prices

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Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. But along with all of the excess crude flowing from the oil patch, there is also an abundance of market indicators that while important, tend to produce a lot of noise that makes any accurate estimate nearly impossible.

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Opinion: Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia’s Oil Industry

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Russia’s central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn.

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The New Oil Cartel Threatening OPEC

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According to Bloomberg’s Carl Pope , Europe and Japan, previously reluctant to take part in any anti-OPEC projects, may now join in. The reason they are likely to join in is that unlike in previous oil price cycles, now there are alternatives to fossil fuels. India, China, and Europe are all very big on EV adoption.

Oil 170
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The New Oil Cartel Threatening OPEC

Green Car Congress

According to Bloomberg’s Carl Pope , Europe and Japan, previously reluctant to take part in any anti-OPEC projects, may now join in. The reason they are likely to join in is that unlike in previous oil price cycles, now there are alternatives to fossil fuels. India, China, and Europe are all very big on EV adoption.

Oil 150
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VTT study concludes gasification-based pathways can deliver low-carbon fuels from biomass for about 1.90-2.65 US$/gallon

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The horizontal red lines show the comparable price of gasoline (before tax, refining margin 0.3 $/gal, exchange rate: 1 € = 1.326 $) with crude oil prices 100 $/bbl and 150 $/bbl. They calculated production cost estimates assuming n th plant economics and without public investment support, CO 2 credits or tax assumptions.

Carbon 218
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Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

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Because the future development of socioeconomic variables, oil price, and the carbon intensity of electricity are outside the transportation sector and uncertain, the team used a set of three scenarios for plausible ranges for their future development. R&D plus electric vehicle subsidy. 19% compared to the NNP case.

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IHS Automotive forecasts 88.6M unit global light vehicle market in 2015; 2.4% growth

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In Mexico, auto sales stalled through the first seven months of 2014, causing some concern that new tax policies implemented at the beginning of 2014 were hurting auto demand growth; however, motivated by incentives to help spark demand, light vehicle sales grew throughout the second half of the year. Europe; Russia influences.

2015 150