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Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

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In 2011, the largest dollar volume for Li-ion automotive applications could come from the mini EV and EREV segment. Representative battery pack size is below each segment. As one example of factors contributing to that decision, a survey of projected oil prices returned values between $30 and $250 a barrel, he said.).

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Lux Research: despite cheap oil, niche plug-in vehicle sales will be resilient; conventional hybrids to be hardest hit

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The current plunge in oil prices will likely negatively affect plug-in and hybrid vehicle sales in the short term; automakers such as BMW are already warning of lower sales of plug-in vehicles given the market context. Anticipated price of oil and forecast plug-in sales. Lux on the price of oil.

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Lux: Total is leading example of oil supermajor expanding into solar plus storage and distributed generation

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France-based Total is the first oil supermajor aggressively to enter new areas of business including solar plus storage and distributed generation, notes Lux Research in a new report : “Superpower Darwinism: What Big Oil Can and Cannot Do About Total’s Billion-Dollar Battery Move.”. Asia challenges loom for battery acquirers.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. Shale gas offsets declines in other US supply to meet. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Among its many findings, the Reference case suggests that US primary energy consumption will grow by 7% from 2011 to 2040 to 108 quadrillion Btu. However, energy use per capita declines by 15% from 2011 through 2040 as a result of improving energy efficiency (e.g., quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 14.0 than in AEO2012.

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Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

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Summary of battery pack cost projections, 2010-2030. Governments and vehicle manufacturers will need to introduce long-term incentives and price cuts to create a sustainable European market for ultra-low emission vans (ULEV), according to a newly published report by Element Energy, commissioned by the UK Department for Transport.

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