Market, Oil, Oil Prices and PHEV

Lux Research: despite cheap oil, niche plug-in vehicle sales will be resilient; conventional hybrids to be hardest hit

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 2, 2015

The current plunge in oil prices will likely negatively affect plug-in and hybrid vehicle sales in the short term; automakers such as BMW are already warning of lower sales of plug-in vehicles given the market context. Anticipated price of oil and forecast plug-in sales. Lux on the price of oil.

Plug-in

Plug-in Oil Cheap Plug

BNEF forecasts EVs to hit 54% of new car sales by 2040; decreasing importance of PHEVs

Green Car Congress

JULY 6, 2017

This represents an aggressive jump compared to BNEF’s previous forecast of 35% EV new car market share by 2040. The engineering complexity of PHEV vehicle platforms, their cost and dual powertrains make BEVs more attractive over the long-run, BNEF said. —Colin McKerracher, lead advanced transport analyst at BNEF.

PHEV

PHEV Sale Lithium Ion Cars

Indianapolis plans to add 425 PHEVs and BEVs to municipal fleet by 2016

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 29, 2014

This is a landmark step in revitalizing our aging fleet and replacing expensive internal combustion engine vehicles with cutting-edge EV technology, all while reducing our dependence on oil and saving Indianapolis taxpayers thousands in fuel costs each year.

Indianapolis

Indianapolis 2016 Fleet PHEV

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

scenarios, and the sensitivity of the model to particular factors, the analysis reveals areas where intervention may be warranted: The capital costs associated with vehicle purchase, in relation to the costs for conventional vehicles; Supply constraints in the Australian market; and. vehicle types (ICEs, EVs, PHEVs and HEVs).

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 21, 2015

In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts , Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., The growth of PEV market share will be aided in part by the number and variety of PEV offerings coming to the market over the next several years. million in 2024.

Light

Light Sale Global Oil Prices

Comprehensive modeling study finds electric drive vehicle deployment has little observed effect on US system-wide emissions

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 15, 2014

Second, PHEVs with smaller battery packs are more likely to deliver emissions benefits and reduced gasoline consumption at lower lifetime cost compared to those with large battery packs in the short term. 42% of the LDV market with an average value of 24%—a figure broadly consistent with other projections of EDV market development.

Emissions

Emissions Oil Prices Vehicles Oil

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Increased sales for hybrids and PHEVs. AEO2013 offers a number of other key findings, including: Crude oil production , especially from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Mixed Outlook for Mainstream Consumer Adoption of PHEVs

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 14, 2009

Bubble chart of plausible mainstream PHEV buyers’ battery requirements (light and dark gray circles) and experts’s requirements overlaid on a Ragone plot of NiMH and Li-ion batteries. The Most Plausible Early Market consumers value fuel economy. A trajectory through time of PHEV designs allows good things to happen.

PHEV

PHEV Fuel Economy San Diego Climate Change

Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 16, 2010

According to a new report from Pike Research, the various national-level initiatives and programs to promote the awareness of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Asia-Pacific region will help make the region the largest market worldwide for electrified vehicles, led by strong demand in China, Japan, and Korea. billion in 2015.

Asia

Asia 2015 China Sale

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

NRC projections of number of PHEVs in the US light-duty fleet. Costs of light-duty plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are high—largely due to their lithium-ion batteries—and unlikely to drastically decrease in the near future, according to a new report from the National Research Council (NRC). Click to enlarge.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid

Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

Green Car Congress

MAY 22, 2013

The index compares the development of e-mobility in seven leading car-manufacturing nations (Germany, France, Italy, US, Japan, China and South Korea) on the basis of three parameters: technology, manufacturing, and market. Source: Roland Berger. Click to enlarge. None of the subsidy programs that ended at the end of 2012 were renewed.

South Korea

South Korea Sale France Plug-in

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 18, 2010

An AECOM-led study of plug-in electric vehicle economics for the New South Wales, Australia government concluded that electric vehicles are economically and financially viable in the NSW market today. The move towards a plug-in electric vehicle market also generates large savings in greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.

Australia

Australia Market Plug-in Plug

Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

Green Car Congress

JUNE 16, 2009

In the near-term (2011), lithium-ion batteries could grow to represent about 21% of the hybrid and EV advanced battery market, according to Dr. Menahem Anderman, President of Advanced Automotive Batteries and the organizer of last week’s Advanced Automotive Battery Conference 2009. PHEVs and EREVs require $7/gallon.

Li-ion

Li-ion 2011 Market Hybrid

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

Even until 2030 many alternative powertrain technologies such as PHEV, BEV and FCV lack relative cost competitiveness—but are important cornerstones in vehicle manufacturers’ CO 2 emission compliance strategies. PHEVs fueled with advanced biofuels and low carbon, renewable electricity (for PC). can be removed. can be removed.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 13, 2011

Electrification will also reduce oil dependence, providing foreign policy benefits and the potential to reduce real oil prices and oil price volatility. Electrification will reduce emissions, with the scale determined by the carbon intensity of the power sector. Vehicle technologies. Policy options.

Transportation

Transportation MIT Oil Prices Oil

Perspective: Toyota Prius Recall Is Only a Bump in the Road in the Move Toward Electrification

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 9, 2010

The recall of Toyota’s Prius is causing some observers to question whether the prospects for the entire hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and electric vehicle (EV) markets are fundamentally hurt. OEMs see the strategic need to develop and offer HEV, PHEV and EV vehicles—above and beyond simply complying with regulations. Earlier post.].

Prius

Prius Toyota PHEV Hybrid

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 10, 2009

“Betting on Science – Disruptive Technologies in Transport Fuels” selected 12 innovations in electrification and genetically modified biofuels, as well as existing fuel sources that will have the most immediate impact on emissions and on the gasoline and diesel markets. by 2014) and also examines different global markets.

Transportation

Transportation Supplies Emissions Fuel

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Green Car Congress

JUNE 7, 2017

Under their optimistic scenario (OPT)—which is based on the assumption that EVs are market-competitive with gasoline vehicles, in particular after 2025—they find 15% and 47% adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

Emissions

Emissions Economy Gasoline-Electric Coal

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 28, 2011

In the transportation sector, DOE will focus on technologies that significantly reduce oil consumption and diversify fuel sources for on-road transportation. In setting priorities for our R&D activities, DOE will support technologies that can integrate with existing energy infrastructure to ease market adoption.

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Economy Light Fuel

Toyota Plug In

Plug In Partners

JUNE 11, 2008

T oyota President Katsuaki Watanabe made his company's intentions clear yesterday about PHEVs. Event Summary Oil prices are at record highs. The overwhelming dependence of our cars and trucks on oil strains family budgets, threatens our national security and contributes to global warming. said. .);

Plug-in

Plug-in Toyota Plug Nickel Metal Hydride

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 4, 2011

The report, Plug-In Electric Vehicles: A Practical Plan for Progress , examines public policies toward PEVs, taking into account the promise and limitations of PEVs, recent improvements in battery technology, market dynamics, and the proliferation of policies around the world that promote the use of PEVs. Market Drivers.

Plug-in

Plug-in 2015 Plug Recharge

Nissan’s Big Gamble

Revenge of the Electric Car

JULY 14, 2009

Some think Nissan is taking a gamble by rapidly moving into mass marketing of EVs, comparing the company’s approach to Toyota and Honda’s approach of “wait and see how the market materializes for EVs, then jump in.&# The gamble is that Nissan could grab the EV market and dominate it until BYD (China) enters the U.S.,

Nissan

Nissan Japan United States Gasoline-Electric

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

Millions will plug-in their electric vehicles (EV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and fuel cell vehicles (FCV) at night when electricity is cheap, then plug-in during the day when energy is expensive and sell those extra electrons at a profit. Millions of EVs and PHEVs would expand the sale of electricity as an alternative to oil.

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

EV Driven

Lux Research: despite cheap oil, niche plug-in vehicle sales will be resilient; conventional hybrids to be hardest hit

BNEF forecasts EVs to hit 54% of new car sales by 2040; decreasing importance of PHEVs

Indianapolis plans to add 425 PHEVs and BEVs to municipal fleet by 2016

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half

Comprehensive modeling study finds electric drive vehicle deployment has little observed effect on US system-wide emissions

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Mixed Outlook for Mainstream Consumer Adoption of PHEVs

Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Perspective: Toyota Prius Recall Is Only a Bump in the Road in the Move Toward Electrification

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Toyota Plug In

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

Nissan’s Big Gamble

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

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