Coal, Oil Prices and United States

EIA expects record global petroleum consumption in 2024, with lower crude oil prices

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 11, 2023

EIA expects crude oil prices to decrease through 2023 and 2024, even as petroleum consumption increases, largely because growth in crude oil production in the United States and abroad will continue to increase over the next two years. Areas of uncertainty include Russian oil supply and OPEC production.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Global Price

EIA expects increased US crude oil production, with continued high petroleum prices in 2022

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MAY 11, 2022

Despite the increases in production, EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to remain above $100 per barrel this year, according to the agency’s May 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). in the United States this summer (June–August) compared with the summer of 2021. —EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. and by 1.5%

Oil

Oil Price Production Oil Prices

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

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OCTOBER 7, 2021

Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability. Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies. —Stephen Nalley.

Global

Global Energy Emissions Asia

EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

Green Car Congress

APRIL 7, 2021

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an increase in demand for petroleum products during the 2021 summer driving season as the impacts of COVID-19 diminish in the United States. EIA expects the retail price of regular-grade gasoline in the United States will average $2.78 gal last summer.

2019

2019 Fuel Coal 2020

Updated NETL study provides more detailed economic and environmental assessment of coal-to-liquids and CTL with modest biomass

Green Car Congress

MAY 15, 2012

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has released a follow-on study to its 2009 evaluation of the economic and environmental performance of Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) and CTL with modest amounts of biomass mixed in (15% by weight) for the production of zero-sulfure diesel fuel. This equates to diesel prices in the range of $2.70

Coal

Coal Diesel Oil Prices Water

IEA: global energy efficiency progress drops to slowest rate since start of decade

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NOVEMBER 4, 2019

in 2018, driven in large part by the People’s Republic of China, India and the United States, which were responsible for 70% of demand growth. In the United States, primary demand increased for the first time since 2014. In the United States, primary intensity worsened for the first time in more than 25 years.

Global

Global Energy 2018 Coal

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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JULY 25, 2013

With prices expected to increase in the long term, however, the world oil price in real 2011 dollars reaches $106 per barrel in 2020 and $163 per barrel in 2040, according to IEO2013. The largest components of future non-petroleum liquid fuels production are biofuels in Brazil and the United States, at 0.7

2010

2010 Transportation Fuel Energy

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

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FEBRUARY 23, 2017

Similar to how ethanol is currently blended into motor gasoline in the United States, methanol is blended into gasoline in China. About two-thirds of China’s methanol feedstock is produced from coal and the remainder from coking gas (a by-product of steel production) and natural gas.

2000

2000 2016 Fuel China

IEA: Global CO2 emissions up by 1.0 Gt (3.2%) in 2011 to record high

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MAY 24, 2012

Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%). China made the largest contribution to the global increase, with its emissions rising by 720 million tonnes (Mt), or 9.3%, primarily due to higher coal consumption. This represents an increase of 1.0 In 2011, a 6.1%

2011

2011 Global Emissions CO2

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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SEPTEMBER 20, 2011

World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil 2008 Oil Prices

Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

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JULY 20, 2012

savings stimulated by high oil prices led to a decrease of 3% in CO 2 emissions in the European Union and of 2% in both the United States and Japan. The United States remain one of the largest emitters of CO2, with 17.3 the United States (16%). Coal consumption in China increased by 9.7%

2011

2011 Emissions CO2 Global

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. The United States has been a net importer of energy since the 1950s.

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

EIA STEO projects higher US crude production, increases in travel and gasoline demand

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APRIL 11, 2017

High oil and coal production also could contribute to diesel consumption growth, EIA notes. Increases in oil drilling activity leads to higher consumption of distillate fuel, which is used to operate and transport drilling rigs. Higher coal production leads to increased rail shipments, which consumes diesel fuel.

Gasoline

Gasoline Production Gasoline-Electric Oil

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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NOVEMBER 12, 2012

The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO ’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

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JANUARY 23, 2012

Over the next 10 years, continued development of tight oil (e.g., shale oil) combined with the development of offshore Gulf of Mexico resources are projected to push domestic crude oil production to 6.7 In recent years, the US electric power sector’s historical reliance on coal-fired power plants has begun to decline.

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 25, 2009

The five different fuel groups were those derived: from conventional petroleum; from unconventional petroleum; synthetically from natural gas, coal, or combinations of coal and biomass via the FT process; renewable oils; and alcohols. million bpd. Weiss, Ian A.

MIT

MIT Oil-Sands Commercial Available

Surprise Natural Gas Drawdown Signals Higher Prices Ahead

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 9, 2016

The US is and has been in the midst of an epochal transition from coal-fired electricity to natural gas and renewables, a switch that will take many more years to play out. But the resulting downturn in prices has now made drilling unprofitable in many areas. But the effects are already showing up in the power generation mix.

Gas

Gas Price Gas-Electric Oil

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2012

Bartis and RAND colleague Lawrence van Bibbe were the authors of a 2011 RAND report concluding that if the US military increased its use of alternative jet and naval fuels that can be produced from coal or various renewable resources, including seed oils, waste oils and algae, there would be no direct benefit to the nation’s armed forces.

Price

Price Turkey Oil-Sands Fuel

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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DECEMBER 5, 2012

The United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas earlier than estimated a year ago. Because quickly rising natural gas production outpaces domestic consumption, the United States will become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2016 and a net exporter of total natural gas (including via pipelines) in 2020.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

NETL Report Concludes CTL Plus Carbon Capture Results in Fuel with 5-12% Less Lifecycle GHG Than Petroleum Diesel; Modest Biomass Additions Lower GHG Further

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 7, 2009

Background colors of the cells represent the crude oil price required for economic feasibility. These synthetic fuels are economically competitive with petro-diesel when the crude oil price (COP) is at or above $86 per barrel (based on a 20% rate of return, in January 2008 dollars, with a carbon price of zero).

Carbon

Carbon Diesel Fuel Coal

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

Energy consumption by light-duty vehicles in the United States, AEO2013 and AEO2014, 1995-2040 (quadrillion Btu). Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation. Projected low prices for natural gas make it a very attractive fuel for new generating capacity. quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 12.1

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 13, 2011

Currently, petroleum almost exclusively fuels the United States (US) transportation system. Electrification will also reduce oil dependence, providing foreign policy benefits and the potential to reduce real oil prices and oil price volatility. of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in the US.

Transportation

Transportation MIT Oil Prices Oil

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2010

The complaint makes a number of charges, including that the California LCFS violates the Commerce Clause and the Supremacy Clause of the United States Constitution. It will protect us from volatile oil prices and provide consumers with cleaner fuels and provide the nation with greater energy security. Earlier post.).

California

California Oil-Sands Oil 2005

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). Other liquids refer to natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids [BTL]), gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), kerogen (i.e.,

Asia

Asia Transportation Oil-Sands Oil Prices

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2013

China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. High oil prices, persistent differences in gas and electricity prices between regions and rising energy import bills in many countries focus attention on the relationship between energy and the broader economy.

Oil

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

China consolidates its position as the world’s largest energy consumer: it consumes nearly 70% more energy than the United States by 2035, even though, by then, per capita demand in China is still less than half the level in the United States. Oil and the Transport Sector: Reconfirming the End of Cheap Oil.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

RAND study concludes use of alternative fuels by US military would convey no direct military benefit; recommends energy efficiency instead

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 25, 2011

If the US military increases its use of alternative jet and naval fuels that can be produced from coal or various renewable resources, including seed oils, waste oils and algae, there will be no direct benefit to the nation’s armed forces, according to a new RAND Corporation study.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Fuel Energy Coal

EV Driven

EIA expects record global petroleum consumption in 2024, with lower crude oil prices

EIA expects increased US crude oil production, with continued high petroleum prices in 2022

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

Updated NETL study provides more detailed economic and environmental assessment of coal-to-liquids and CTL with modest biomass

IEA: global energy efficiency progress drops to slowest rate since start of decade

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

IEA: Global CO2 emissions up by 1.0 Gt (3.2%) in 2011 to record high

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

EIA STEO projects higher US crude production, increases in travel and gasoline demand

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

Surprise Natural Gas Drawdown Signals Higher Prices Ahead

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

NETL Report Concludes CTL Plus Carbon Capture Results in Fuel with 5-12% Less Lifecycle GHG Than Petroleum Diesel; Modest Biomass Additions Lower GHG Further

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

RAND study concludes use of alternative fuels by US military would convey no direct military benefit; recommends energy efficiency instead

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