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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

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US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

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Production capacity must be established, and technology, vehicle cost and infrastructure barriers must be addressed to achieve large-scale market introduction. However, additional policy steps are needed to further drive innovation, reduce costs, and spur consumer demand, the report says. Earlier post.).

2015 210
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GAO Report Concludes Industry and Government Face Significant Challenges in Meeting RFS Target While Minimizing Unintended Adverse Effects; Suggests Federal Research Give Priority to Non-Ethanol Biofuels

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For example, while increasing demand for corn for ethanol contributed to higher corn prices, thereby providing economic incentive for some corn producers, they also increased feed costs for livestock producers. Federal tax credits, the RFS, and the ethanol tariff have primarily supported conventional corn starch ethanol.

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Global biofuels production up 17% in 2010 to hit all-time high of 105 billion liters

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High oil prices, a global economic rebound, and new laws and mandates in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, and the United States, among other countries, are all factors behind the surge in production, according to research conducted by the Worldwatch Institute’s Climate and Energy Program for the website Vital Signs Online.

2010 256
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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020 150
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National Research Council report finds it unlikely the US will meet cellulosic biofuel mandates absent major innovation or a change in policies

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A key barrier to achieving RFS2 is the high cost of producing biofuels compared to petroleum-based fuels and the large capital investments required to put billions of gallons of production capacity in place. As of 2010, biofuel production was contingent on subsidies, tax credits, the import tariff, loan guarantees, RFS2, and similar policies.

Renewable 252
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Sandia Labs/GM Biofuels Systems Study Concludes Large-Scale Production of Advanced Biofuels is Achievable and Sustainable

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For each new plant constructed, the BDM selected a feedstock/conversion pair resulting in the lowest cost of ethanol. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine key parameters affecting production volumes, cost, and greenhouse gas savings. The study used state-level granularity in its assessments, rather than a national model.

GM 170