Canada, Cost, Oil Prices and Products

Low oil prices hurting some US shale operations; slumping oil prices putting pressure on drillers

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 23, 2014

There were 19 oil rigs that were removed from operation as of Oct. There are now 1,590 active oil rigs, the lowest level in six weeks. We could easily see the oil rig count down 100 by the end of the year, or more.” But that also reflects the high costs of starting up a nascent shale region.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Saudi Arabia Oil-Sands

IHS Markit: US oil producers to halt 1.75 MMb/d per day of production; Canada to cut 0.5 MMb/d

Green Car Congress

MAY 22, 2020

Due to the collapse in oil prices, IHS Markit expects US producers are in the process of curtailing about 1.75 This resumption of production may accelerate if WTI remains above $30 per barrel—a price that allows operators to cover their operating costs and that reflects improved storage availability.

Oil

Oil Canada Oil-Sands Production

IHS Markit: Canadian oil sands production exceeds pre-pandemic levels, but lower than prior projections

Green Car Congress

JUNE 24, 2021

Canadian oil sands production has fully recovered from last year’s “COVID-19 Shock”—the largest contraction of upstream production in Canadian history—and has exceeded pre-pandemic levels. The latest forecast by the IHS Markit Oil Sands Dialogue expects Canadian oil sands production to reach 3.6

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil Production Oil Prices

CAPP forecasts oil sands development still drives steady Canadian oil production growth to 2030

Green Car Congress

JUNE 12, 2014

However, the new forecast represents a slowing of future oil sands production growth compared to the predictions of last year’s forecast. According to CAPP’s 2014 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation , total Canadian crude oil production will increase to 6.4 CAPP forecast. Click to enlarge. million b/d.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil Production 2013

Global biofuels production up 17% in 2010 to hit all-time high of 105 billion liters

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 31, 2011

World ethanol and biodiesel production, 1975-2010. Global production of biofuels increased 17% in 2010 to reach an all-time high of 105 billion liters (28 billion gallons US), up from 90 billion liters (24 billion gallons US) in 2009. Source: Worldwatch Institute. Click to enlarge. Biofuels provided 2.7%

2010

2010 Brazil Global Argentina

Chevron leveraging information technology to optimize thermal production of heavy oil with increased recovery and reduced costs

Green Car Congress

JUNE 23, 2011

Chevron’s focus on optimizing the thermal management of the Kern River field has resulted in a steady drop in the steam:oil ratio (barrels steam water per barrel oil), resulting in improved economics of the field even with slowly declining production. Current product flow at Kern River field. Data: California DOGGR.

Chevron

Chevron Oil Oil-Sands Production

Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 17, 2009

World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. Energy prices reflected this shift: oil peaked at $144 per barrel in July, then fell to $34 per barrel in December. Oil production reached 10.7

2008

2008 Oil-Sands Production Fuel

Opinion: Can Argentina Capitalize On Its Vast Shale Reserves?

Green Car Congress

APRIL 1, 2015

The question today is just how much Argentina is willing to change and how this plays into a low oil price environment that is already negatively impacting investment elsewhere. This translates to an estimated 802 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas and 27 billion barrels of oil.

Argentina

Argentina Oil Oil Prices Environment

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

The differences from AEO2013 to AEO2014 result from different fuel prices, updated manufacturer product offerings, changing technology attributes, and an updated view of consumer perceptions of infrastructure availability for E85 vehicles. Pipeline exports to Canada grow by 1.2% quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 7.5 Tcf in 2012 to 3.1

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

Purdue study projects that under likely adoption rates, use of biojet fuel alone will not meet aviation emissions reduction targets for 2050; the need to go above 50% blends

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 16, 2011

Uncertainty range of the aviation GHG emissions under the High Oil price scenario (the most optimistic for biojet adoption), given in a box plot depicting the minimum, quartile, and maximum values. They excluded soybean out of concern to the disruption on food production and effects of land-use change. Click to enlarge.

Emissions

Emissions Oil Prices 2005 Fuel

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 15, 2010

The paper is an examination of how various choices about the scale of the life cycle analysis applied to oil sands (i.e., Bergerson and Keith pay particular attention to CCS, showing how divergent views about its cost effectiveness emerge from divergent choices about the scale of analysis.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil Emissions Coal

CFR Report Says Energy Security and Climate Change Concerns With Oil Sands Can be Reconciled

Green Car Congress

MAY 24, 2009

A new report from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)— The Canadian Oil Sands: Energy Security vs Climate Change — claims that prudent greenhouse gas regulations can limit emissions from Canadian oil sands while still enabling robust development of the energy resource.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Climate Change Oil Climate

Syncrude to Expand Its Oil Sands Synthetic Crude Output to 425,000 Barrels per Day by 2020

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 25, 2010

Canadian Oil Sands Trust, the largest stakeholder (36.74%) in the Syncrude oil sands project, announced plans to increase the synthetic crude oil production capacity at Syncrude Mildred Lake upgrader to 425,000 barrels per day by 2020 from 350,000 now. Marcel Coutu, Canadian Oil Sands’ President and CEO.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil 2020 Canada

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2012

From a cost perspective, the potential of alternative fuels is of limited, if any value, according to the lead report written by James Bartis, a RAND senior policy researcher. While DoD and the services will have access to the wholesale fuel supplies they require, the purchase price may be uncomfortably high. —Bartis 2012.

Price

Price Oil-Sands Turkey Fuel

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2010

The NPRA complaint claims that the LCFS violates the Commerce Clause because: It directly regulates interstate and foreign commerce and extraterritorial conduct, including the extraction, production and transport of transportation fuels and fuel feedstocks outside of California. ATA Vice President Rich Moskowitz.

California

California Oil-Sands Oil 2005

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

Liquid fuels production (OPEC crude and lease condensate, non-OPEC crude and lease condensate, and other) and consumption (by OECD and non-OECD regions) under three price cases in 2040. The Middle East OPEC member countries alone account for 90% of the total growth in projected OPEC crude and lease condensate production.

Asia

Asia Transportation Oil-Sands Oil Prices

State Department releases Keystone XL Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 1, 2014

The earlier 2011 Final EIS was developed contemporaneously with the start of strong growth in domestic light crude oil supply from tight oil formations, such as those formations found in North Dakota’s Bakken region. Domestic production of crude oil has increased significantly, from approximately 5.5

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Nebraska Oil Montana

IHS-CERA concludes “no material impact” on US GHG from Keystone XL; heavy crude from Venezuela most likely replacement

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 9, 2013

In the absence of the pipeline, alternate transportation routes would result in oilsands production growth being more or less unchanged, IHS CERA found. Critics cite the steep crude oil price discounts for Canadian producers in the past year as further evidence that rail is not economic. Earlier post.).

Venezuela

Venezuela Oil-Sands Oil Canada

Opinion: Busting The “Canadian Bakken” Myth

Green Car Congress

JUNE 12, 2015

“NEB and GNWT study finds 200 billion barrels of oil in the Sahtu,” gushed CBC News , referring to a region of the sprawling territory that cuts across three provinces and touches the Arctic Ocean. Knowledgeable oilmen like Hogg say that the Canol, while highly prospective, is a long-term game that will have to wait until oil prices rise.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil North Dakota Oil Prices

IHS Markit identifies 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in short-cycle opportunities outside North America

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 31, 2018

New energy research from business information provider IHS Markit has identified more than five billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in numerous smaller, previously bypassed, or underperforming reservoirs outside North America that offer oil and gas operators a shorter-cycle path to production than new, frontier projects in undeveloped areas.

North America

North America Oil America Oman

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035. Oil and the Transport Sector: Reconfirming the End of Cheap Oil. Click to enlarge. Electric vehicles.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

Green Car Congress

JULY 19, 2012

Building on LCFS policies already adopted in Europe, British Columbia, and California, the researchers looked at potential costs and benefits of reducing the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 10 to 15 percent by 2030. All of this helps achieve LCFS targets in the most cost-effective manner.

Carbon

Carbon Oil-Sands Standards Design

EV Driven

Low oil prices hurting some US shale operations; slumping oil prices putting pressure on drillers

IHS Markit: US oil producers to halt 1.75 MMb/d per day of production; Canada to cut 0.5 MMb/d

IHS Markit: Canadian oil sands production exceeds pre-pandemic levels, but lower than prior projections

CAPP forecasts oil sands development still drives steady Canadian oil production growth to 2030

Global biofuels production up 17% in 2010 to hit all-time high of 105 billion liters

Chevron leveraging information technology to optimize thermal production of heavy oil with increased recovery and reduced costs

Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

Opinion: Can Argentina Capitalize On Its Vast Shale Reserves?

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Purdue study projects that under likely adoption rates, use of biojet fuel alone will not meet aviation emissions reduction targets for 2050; the need to go above 50% blends

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

CFR Report Says Energy Security and Climate Change Concerns With Oil Sands Can be Reconciled

Syncrude to Expand Its Oil Sands Synthetic Crude Output to 425,000 Barrels per Day by 2020

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

State Department releases Keystone XL Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

IHS-CERA concludes “no material impact” on US GHG from Keystone XL; heavy crude from Venezuela most likely replacement

Opinion: Busting The “Canadian Bakken” Myth

IHS Markit identifies 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in short-cycle opportunities outside North America

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

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