2020, Oil Prices, Renewable and Transportation

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 22, 2014

The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Carbon

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 7, 2021

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that, absent significant changes in policy or technology, world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50% between 2020 and 2050. Liquid fuels remain the largest source of energy consumption, driven largely by the industrial and transportation sectors.

Global

Global Energy Emissions Asia

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

Green Car Congress

JULY 25, 2013

Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing 2.5% The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $112 per barrel in 2012, and EIA’s July 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects averages of $105 per barrel in 2013 and $100 per barrel in 2014. Liquid fuels.

2010

2010 Transportation Fuel Energy

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

A new study by consultancy Roland Berger defines an integrated roadmap for European road transport decarbonization to 2030 and beyond; the current regulatory framework for vehicle emissions, carbon intensity of fuels and use of renewable fuels covers only up to 2020/2021. GHG abatement in road transport sector will cost approx.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. CAGR from 2012 through 2020 to about $250/kWh.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

NTU Singapore to develop technologies to extract hydrogen from liquid organic hydrogen carriers

Green Car Congress

APRIL 3, 2022

Liquid organic hydrogen carriers are flexible media for the storage and transportation of renewable energy. The research project thus has the potential to allow for more efficient and economical transport of hydrogen, which can in turn contribute to the expansion of global hydrogen supply chains.

Singapore

Singapore Hydrogen Corporation Japan

Analysis Finds That First-Generation Biofuel Use of Up to 5.6% in EU Road Transport Fuels Delivers Net GHG Emissions Benefits After Factoring in Indirect Land Use Change

Green Car Congress

MARCH 26, 2010

of first-generation, land-using biofuels in EU road transport fuels delivers a net greenhouse gas reduction benefit (13 Mt CO 2 savings in a 20-year horizon) even after factoring in indirect land use change (ILUC) effects. Renewable energy options for road transport included first- and second-generation biofuels and electricity.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel 2020

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 20, 2011

The transportation sector accounted for 27% of total world delivered energy consumption in 2008, and transportation energy use increases by 1.4% World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil 2008 Oil Prices

EPA announces 2011 Presidential Green Chemistry Challenge Awards; green chemistry market opportunity projected to be $98.5B by 2020, about 2% of total market

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2011

billion by 2020. Genomatica is developing and commercializing sustainable basic and intermediate chemicals made from renewable feedstocks including readily available sugars, biomass, and syngas. Genomatica expects Bio-BDO to be competitive at oil prices of $45 per barrel or at natural gas prices of $3.50

Green

Green Market 2011 2020

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 19, 2011

According to the base case forecast, diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990.

Energy

Energy Economy Global Oil-Sands

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

Net petroleum imports as a share of total US liquid fuels consumed drop from 49% in 2010 to 38% in 2020 and 36% in 2035 in AEO2012. AEO2012 also projects that efficiency improvements mostly offset underlying drivers of growth in transportation services. Over the next 10 years, continued development of tight oil (e.g.,

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 12, 2012

The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO ’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. The AEO2013 reference case projects delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector to remain relatively constant at about 27 quadrillion Btu from 2011 to 2040. Renewable fuel use grows at a much faster rate than fossil fuel use. Click to enlarge. than in AEO2012.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2010

The California LCFS calls for at least a 10% reduction from 2006 levels in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO 2 e/MJ) of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. These charges echo those in a complaint against the LCFS filed by two ethanol trade groups—the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) and Growth Energy—in December 2009.

California

California Oil-Sands Oil 2005

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

Our Reference case projection shows the growing importance of natural gas from domestic shale gas resources in meeting US energy demand and lowering natural gas prices. Energy efficiency improvements and the increased use of renewables are other key factors that moderate the projected growth in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

The large decline in LDV energy consumption in AEO2014 shrinks the LDV modal share of total transportation energy consumption from 60% in 2012 to 47% in 2040. quadrillion Btu in AEO2013, and represents the largest growth among all transportation modes. Transportation energy consumption is considerably lower in AEO2014 (25.5

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

Adam Brandt and his colleagues used historical relationships to project future demand for (a) transport services; (b) all liquid fuels; and (c) substitution with alternative energy carriers, including electricity. Their results showed great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil.

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 29, 2014

DNV and GL merged in September 2013 to form DNV GL—the world’s largest ship and offshore classification society, the leading technical advisor to the global oil and gas industry, and a leading expert for the energy value chain including renewables and energy efficiency. Ship electrification and renewables.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Fuel Gas-Electric Mariner

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

The cost to manufacture these vehicles is expected to decline by about one-third by 2020 but only slowly thereafter. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles”. According to the report, a portfolio approach toward reducing US dependence on oil is necessary for long-term success.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2013

The Middle East becomes the world’s second-largest gas consumer by 2020 and third-largest oil consumer by 2030, redefining its role in global energy markets. Low-carbon energy sources (renewables and nuclear) meet around 40% of the growth in primary energy demand. million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2011 to 4.1

Oil

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions

Can Electric Vehicles Speed Up As The Economy Slows Down?

Wallbox

JANUARY 4, 2021

Moreover, with the massive drop in oil prices , gas-powered vehicles are more economical to operate, which makes it harder to argue that EVs will help drivers save money on fuel. Additionally, consumers are likely to opt for more economical choices when possible, avoiding premium consumer goods.

Economy

Economy Electric Vehicles Vehicles Electric

EV Driven

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

NTU Singapore to develop technologies to extract hydrogen from liquid organic hydrogen carriers

Analysis Finds That First-Generation Biofuel Use of Up to 5.6% in EU Road Transport Fuels Delivers Net GHG Emissions Benefits After Factoring in Indirect Land Use Change

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

EPA announces 2011 Presidential Green Chemistry Challenge Awards; green chemistry market opportunity projected to be $98.5B by 2020, about 2% of total market

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Can Electric Vehicles Speed Up As The Economy Slows Down?

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