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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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Among the more detailed transportation projections in AEO2014 are: LDVs powered by gasoline remain the dominant vehicle type in the AEO2014 Reference case, retaining a 78% share of new LDV sales in 2040, down from their 82% share in 2012. Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation.

Oil 290
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Spatially explicit life cycle assessment of 5 sun-to-wheels pathways finds photovoltaic electricity and BEVs offer land-efficient and low-carbon transportation

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Direct land use, life cycle GHG emissions (excluding indirect land use change), and life cycle fossil fuel requirements to generate the transportation services provided by 17.8 × 10 12 MJ NCV of gasoline, the amount used in transportation in the US in 2009. Credit: ACS, Geyer et al. Click to enlarge.

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Study finds PHEVs will reduce net emissions of CO2 and NOx; upward pressure on SO2

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Net emissions resulting from the use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) depend on the efficiency of the conventional vehicle fleet; PHEV CD (all-electric, charge-depleting mode) efficiency; charging strategy; battery pack capacity; driving patterns; and generator mix used for charging. Scott Peterson, J. emissions.

PHEV 240
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IEA: carbon intensity of global energy supply has barely changed in last 20 years; “window of opportunity in transport”

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The IEA said that this reflects the continued domination of fossil fuels—particularly coal—in the energy mix and the slow uptake of other, lower-carbon supply technologies. In 2012, sales of hybrid-electric vehicles passed the one million mark. Coal technologies continue to dominate growth in power generation.

Carbon 265
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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Sales of battery-powered electric vehicles are 65% lower in the AEO2013 Reference case than the year before, with annual sales in 2035 estimated to be about 119,000. Motor gasoline consumption will be less than previously estimated. Click to enlarge. Overall findings.

Fuel 225
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Berkeley Lab study forecasts China energy use will peak within 20 years; 356 million private cars by 2050

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In the years since 2005, we have established and significantly enhanced the LBNL China End-Use Energy Model based on the level of diffusion of end use technologies and other drivers of energy demand. It is reduced by 900 Mtce to 4600 Mtce in AIS in 2050, a cumulative energy reduction of 26 billion tonnes of coal equivalent from 2005 to 2050.

China 285
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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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Assuming no changes in policy related to greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide emissions grow slowly, but do not again reach 2005 levels until 2027. After falling 3% in 2008 and nearly 7% in 2009, largely driven by the economic downturn, energy-related CO 2 emissions do not return to 2005 levels (5,980 million metric tons) until 2027.

Gas 199