Forecast, Gasoline-Electric, Light and Oil Prices

IHS Markit: US gasoline demand could be cut almost in half due to COVID-19

Green Car Congress

MARCH 27, 2020

A sudden drop in miles traveled by car in the US triggered by wide-spread social isolation measures will have immediate ramifications for gasoline demand. IHS Markit analysis finds that US gasoline demand could fall by as much as 4.1 The four-week average US gasoline demand for the week ending 6 March 2020 was 9.1 million units.

Gasoline

Gasoline 2020 Gasoline-Electric 2008

BNEF forecasts EVs to be 35% of global new car sales by 2040; cost of ownership below conventional-fuel vehicles by 2025

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 25, 2016

A new study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) forecasts that sales of electric vehicles will hit 41 million by 2040, representing 35% of new light duty vehicle sales worldwide. BNEF will discuss its EV forecast in detail at its upcoming annual BNEF Summit in New York in April. Although some 1.3

Cost Of

Cost Of Sale Global Vehicles

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

Energy consumption by light-duty vehicles in the United States, AEO2013 and AEO2014, 1995-2040 (quadrillion Btu). The fuel economy of gasoline-powered LDVs continues to increase, and advanced technology fuel efficiency subsystems are added, such as micro hybridization, which is installed on 42% of gasoline LDVs in 2040.

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. In DB’s Fall 2009 note, they had forecast 12% growth.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

According to a recently published report commissioned by the Victoria (Australia) Department of Transport from AECOM, electric vehicle (EV) technology offers the state of Victoria potentially significant economic benefits by the late 2020s. electricity supply to provide the necessary protections from higher voltages. Source: AECOM.

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Green Car Congress

JULY 14, 2009

In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. Electric Cars in the United States: A New Model with Forecasts to 2030” was written by Thomas Becker, a Ph.D.

Electric Cars

Electric Cars Battery Batteries Market

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Green Car Congress

JUNE 7, 2017

A new study by researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder projects the emission impacts of the widespread introduction of inexpensive and efficient electric vehicles into the US light duty vehicle (LDV) sector. Among their findings: Gasoline vehicles dominate in the BAU scenario for the entire time horizon.

Emissions

Emissions Economy Gasoline-Electric Coal

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

From the GHG abatement cost perspective, the study found that the most efficient technologies are full deployment of the E10 grade, to reach the 7% energy cap of conventional biofuels; higher advanced ethanol blends for gasoline such as E20; drop-in advanced biofuels for diesel; and hybridized powertrains, such as mild hybrids and full hybrids.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

Green Car Congress

JUNE 16, 2009

(Reflecting the current difficulties in forecasting, Anderman, who publishes an annual market forecast for the sector, said he decided not to produce the 2009 report. As one example of factors contributing to that decision, a survey of projected oil prices returned values between $30 and $250 a barrel, he said.).

Li-ion

Li-ion 2011 Market Hybrid

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

Among the transportation-related updates going into AEO2011, the EIA increased the limit for blending ethanol into gasoline for approved vehicles from 10% to 15%, as a result of the waiver granted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 2010. Energy consumption for light-duty vehicles grows from 16.7

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 27, 2011

gasoline in cars) to electricity in order to achieve the GHG reduction target. They conclude that widespread electrification of transportation and other sectors is required, along with decarbonized electricity becoming the dominant form of energy supply. forecasts of population and gross state product, combined.

Climate

Climate California Fuel Gas-Electric

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

Green Car Congress

MARCH 2, 2013

The pipeline would primarily transport crude oil from the WCSB and Bakken regions. The majority of the WCSB oil is considered a heavy crude oil, while Bakken crude is considered a light crude oil. If diluents are not available, producers use synthetic crude oil as the diluent to create a product called synbit.

Climate Change

Climate Change Oil-Sands Nebraska Climate

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. The number of people without access to electricity remained unacceptably high at 1.3 Oil demand for road freight grows fastest, by 1.7%

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Bank of America: Oil Demand Growth to Hit Zero Within a Decade, EVs the Culprit

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 7, 2019

The main driver of the destruction in demand is the proliferation of electric vehicles. Any major disruption to cobalt today would likely curb EV proliferation in the early 2020s, in turn supporting long dated crude oil prices,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned. That would alter oil demand forecasts, but in complicated ways.

Oil

Oil America Oil Prices South Africa

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

The World's First Clean Motocross Race On Electric. High-Speed Rail Unlocks Intermodal Potential Texas Excess Ford Expands Hybrid Success to Electric Vehicles ► March (17) Carbon Capture and Storage: To Be or Not To Be? Intelligent Charging Infrastructure for New Electr. Here we go again.or Carbon trading vs t.

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

EV Driven

IHS Markit: US gasoline demand could be cut almost in half due to COVID-19

BNEF forecasts EVs to be 35% of global new car sales by 2040; cost of ownership below conventional-fuel vehicles by 2025

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Bank of America: Oil Demand Growth to Hit Zero Within a Decade, EVs the Culprit

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

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