Coal, Cost, Economy and Oil Prices

Rhodium Group estimates US GHG emissions rose 1.3% in 2022

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 11, 2023

Despite efforts to continue stimulating the US economy in the wake of the pandemic, high inflation put a damper on economic growth, which was exacerbated by a spike in oil prices as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, the US economy grew 1.9% in 2022, down from a 5.7% GDP increase in 2021.

Emissions

Emissions Oil Prices 2005 Coal

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 22, 2014

The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Carbon

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 7, 2021

In its International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021), EIA projects that strong economic growth, particularly with developing economies in Asia, will drive global increases in energy consumption despite pandemic-related declines and long-term improvements in energy efficiency. —Stephen Nalley.

Global

Global Energy Emissions Asia

EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

Green Car Congress

APRIL 7, 2021

EIA also forecasts the Brent crude oil price will average $64 per barrel this summer, a 78% increase from last summer’s average of $36 per barrel. That price increase paired with an increase in gasoline and diesel demand will likely increase the cost of regular gasoline and diesel fuel this summer. gal on 22 March.

2019

2019 Fuel Coal 2020

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Green Car Congress

JUNE 7, 2017

Compared to the reference case, in which gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) remain dominant through 2050 (BAU), OPT results in 16% and 36% reductions in LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2030 and 2050, respectively, corresponding to 5% and 9% reductions in economy-wide emissions. Credit: ACS, Keshavarzmohammadian et al. Click to enlarge.

Emissions

Emissions Economy Gasoline-Electric Coal

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

The $32-Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 28, 2019

And it has become clear that not only oil and gas giants are being targeted, after one of the world’s largest mining and commodity trading companies, Glencore, decided to put a limit on its thermal coal investment. This will, of course, come at a cost for energy-hungry regions or consumers.

Oil

Oil Industrial Industry Financing

Biosyncrude Gasification Process Could Produce Motor Fuel at Cost of Around $3/gallon

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 31, 2009

A crude oil price of US$100/bbl results in an approximate cost of €0.56/L The biosyncrude is well suited for energy-dense storage and transport, resulting in lower transportation costs and large biomass delivery areas. With ±30% estimate error, this is between €0.56 per liter (US$2.72-5.03/gallon —Henrich et al.

Cost Of

Cost Of Motor Motors Motoring

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy. quadrillion Btu in 2035, as a result of fuel economy improvements achieved through stock turnover as older, less efficient vehicles are replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient vehicles. million, or less than one-half the 2.9 than in AEO2012.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 15, 2010

The paper is an examination of how various choices about the scale of the life cycle analysis applied to oil sands (i.e., Bergerson and Keith pay particular attention to CCS, showing how divergent views about its cost effectiveness emerge from divergent choices about the scale of analysis. Why then the focus on oil sands?

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil Emissions Coal

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

EIA added a premium to the capital cost of CO 2 -intensive technologies to reflect current market behavior regarding possible future policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, the US electric power sector’s historical reliance on coal-fired power plants has begun to decline. Click to enlarge.

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

The rising fuel economy of LDVs more than offsets the modest growth in VMT, resulting in a 25% decline in LDV energy consumption decline between 2012 and 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case. Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation. from 2012 to 2040, compared to 1.2% per year, from 21.5

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

It also updated the costs and sizes of electric and plug-in hybrid electric batteries and revised downward light-duty vehicle travel demand due to the adoption of a new estimation technique. The fuel economy standards are increased through model year 2020 to meet the statutory requirements of EISA2007. Unconventional vehicle sales.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 12, 2012

barely rises in OECD countries, although there is a pronounced shift away from oil, coal (and, in some countries, nuclear) towards natural gas and renewables. global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s) and starts to see the impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. Energy demand. Renewables.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 13, 2011

Electrification will also reduce oil dependence, providing foreign policy benefits and the potential to reduce real oil prices and oil price volatility. With the current fuel mix of the US power sector (about half coal, about 30% “carbon-free”), CO 2 emissions for HEVs and EVs are similar.

Transportation

Transportation MIT Oil Prices Oil

NETL Report Concludes CTL Plus Carbon Capture Results in Fuel with 5-12% Less Lifecycle GHG Than Petroleum Diesel; Modest Biomass Additions Lower GHG Further

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 7, 2009

Background colors of the cells represent the crude oil price required for economic feasibility. These synthetic fuels are economically competitive with petro-diesel when the crude oil price (COP) is at or above $86 per barrel (based on a 20% rate of return, in January 2008 dollars, with a carbon price of zero).

Carbon

Carbon Diesel Fuel Coal

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 28, 2011

DOE recognizes that technology developments can help make vehicles more efficient and alternative fuels more economic, but the deployment of any technologies it helps develop is largely determined by policies, such as Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. Impartial DOE research can help inform these standards.

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Economy Light Fuel

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2012

From a cost perspective, the potential of alternative fuels is of limited, if any value, according to the lead report written by James Bartis, a RAND senior policy researcher. Alternative liquid fuels do not offer DoD a way to appreciably reduce fuel costs. Earlier post.). —Bartis 2012.

Price

Price Oil-Sands Turkey Fuel

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. Historical scenario. (A)

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2010

California’s LCFS also would have little or no impact on GHG emissions nationwide and would harm our nation’s energy security by discouraging the use of Canadian crude oil—our nation’s largest source of crude—and ethanol produced in the American Midwest. The LCFS is an ineffective tool for reducing GHG emissions. NPRA President Charles T.

California

California Oil-Sands Oil 2005

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). Other liquids refer to natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids [BTL]), gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), kerogen (i.e.,

Asia

Asia Transportation Oil-Sands Oil Prices

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2013

China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. High oil prices, persistent differences in gas and electricity prices between regions and rising energy import bills in many countries focus attention on the relationship between energy and the broader economy.

Oil

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

CDM Baby, CDM Ruminations on Vegas and NASCAR California Dreamin' ► February (16) Car Sharing and Saving in a Tough Economy Throwing down the gauntlet to Secretary Clinton Weather Does Not Equal Climate The Hub Lab Seeks Revolutionary New Energy Science. Renewables That Even Coal-Based Utilities Can Love. Then we are done!

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

Hawaii opts for EVs and renewable energy

Revenge of the Electric Car

DECEMBER 3, 2008

Once the capital costs of setting up the facility are recouped, about ten years in this case, all they have are maintenance and operational costs since the energy source is essentially free forever. Clean base load energy is particularly important since that is usually generated by nukes, burning coal or, in the case of Hawaii, oil.

Hawaii

Hawaii Renewable Energy San Francisco

EV Driven

Rhodium Group estimates US GHG emissions rose 1.3% in 2022

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

The $32-Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry

Biosyncrude Gasification Process Could Produce Motor Fuel at Cost of Around $3/gallon

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

NETL Report Concludes CTL Plus Carbon Capture Results in Fuel with 5-12% Less Lifecycle GHG Than Petroleum Diesel; Modest Biomass Additions Lower GHG Further

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Hawaii opts for EVs and renewable energy

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