Battery, Fleet, Forecast and Oil Prices

GlobalData: COVID-19 puts EV sales and CO2 fleet emission targets at risk

Green Car Congress

APRIL 8, 2020

GlobalData research shows that lower oil prices as a result of the COVID-19 crisis could reduce electric vehicle demand and impair EU efforts to significantly reduce average new vehicle CO 2 emissions in the European car market. —Mike Vousden, Automotive Analyst at GlobalData. —Mike Vousden.

CO2

CO2 Fleet Emissions Oil Prices

Report suggests low-speed electric vehicles could affect Chinese demand for gasoline and disrupt oil prices worldwide

Green Car Congress

MAY 22, 2019

Low-speed electric vehicles (LSEVs) could reduce China’s demand for gasoline and, in turn, impact global oil prices, according to a new issue brief by an expert in the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. “

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Gasoline-Electric Gasoline Oil

BNEF forecasts EVs to hit 54% of new car sales by 2040; decreasing importance of PHEVs

Green Car Congress

JULY 6, 2017

Electric vehicles will make up the majority of new car sales worldwide by 2040, and account for 33% of all the light-duty vehicles on the road, according to a new forecast published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). This represents an aggressive jump compared to BNEF’s previous forecast of 35% EV new car market share by 2040.

PHEV

PHEV Sale Lithium Ion Cars

Navigant forecasts global medium- and heavy-duty alt powertrain sales to exceed 820K units in 2026

Green Car Congress

JULY 5, 2016

According to a new forecast report from Navigant Research, global commercial alternative powertrain medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) sales will grow from about 347,000 vehicles in 2016 to more than 820,000 in 2026, representing a CAGR of about 9%. A major factor has always been the cost of battery packs.

Global

Global Sale North America Oil Prices

Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024

Green Car Congress

APRIL 8, 2015

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that total annual global light-duty start-stop vehicle (SSVs) sales will reach 59 million, accounting for 55% of all light duty vehicle sales. The other driver for SSV technology is consumer demand—present in Europe and some Asia Pacific countries for some time thanks to high fuel prices.

Light

Light North America Global Sale

Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 16, 2010

million kWh of Li-ion batteries and revenue of $4.1 Two key drivers of EV adoption include climate concerns and oil prices. The vast majority of China’s PEV fleet will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), driven by a strong push behind this category by the central government. billion in 2015.

Asia

Asia 2015 China Sale

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

Green Car Congress

MAY 22, 2013

Overall, worldwide sales forecasts—and hence the related production forecasts for EVs and PHEVs—are more conservative than in the preceding survey period. Since the previous survey, forecasts for vehicle production in Germany, France and South Korea have experienced positive development but remain at comparably low levels.

South Korea

South Korea Sale France Plug-in

IHS Markit: global oil demand still growing in the short term despite increasing focus on EVs

Green Car Congress

APRIL 23, 2018

Short-term oil demand is still growing strong and will continue to do so through the end of 2020 despite the market’s increasing focus on electric vehicles and the forecasted future plateau in oil demand, according to new analysis from IHS Markit, a global business information provider. Source: IHS Markit 2018.

Oil

Oil Global 2003 2007

Center for Automotive Research releases study on estimated US distribution pattern of electric vehicles through 2015; focus on incentives

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 13, 2011

The study is not a forecast sales of electric vehicles; rather, it estimates electric vehicle deployment by state, using other forecasts of total electric vehicle sales in the US to generate a reasonable approximation of what electric vehicle sales might look like for the period 2012 to 2015.

2015

2015 Electric Vehicles Vehicles Sale

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Green Car Congress

JULY 14, 2009

EV penetration with a battery swap model in three scenarios. In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. Becker (2009). Click to enlarge.

Electric Cars

Electric Cars Batteries Battery Market

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 11, 2010

Base case economics for EVs in North America are very challenging, absent significant disruption in oil price or battery cost. Electric vehicles (EVs) will become economically attractive for lead market segments by 2020, but broader adoption will require major declines in battery costs. Click to enlarge.

Solar

Solar Boston Consulting Group Power Powered

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

Optimized internal combustion engines are the major contributor to the reduction of passenger car GHG emissions with significant improvements until 2020 and the subsequent penetration of more effective alternative technologies into the fleet. For the model, the team derived a likely powertrain mix for different vehicle groups until 2030.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

Economic Impact Study Finds Grid-Enabled Vehicle Policies in Electrification Coalition Roadmap Would Result in Substantial Economic Benefit for US

Green Car Congress

APRIL 9, 2010

The Roadmap proposes completely transforming the US light-duty vehicle fleet into one in which grid-enabled mobility (grid-enabled vehicles, GEV) is the new conventional standard. The Inforum LIFT model is a detailed economic forecasting model, which captures, among other things, the effects of purchases and sales between industries.

Grid

Grid Vehicles 2008 Oil

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 27, 2011

forecasts of population and gross state product, combined. generation forecasting, breakthroughs in storage technology, replacement of steam generation with fast-response gas. batteries; smart charging; building shell and appliances; cement manufacturing; electric industrial boilers; agriculture. 875 Mt CO 2 e. electricity.

Climate

Climate California Fuel Gas-Electric

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 29, 2014

While LNG is expected to be an early success, the picture becomes more diversified over time, as more than 20% of shipping could adopt hybrid propulsion solutions featuring batteries or other energy storage technologies, according to the paper. Ship electrification and renewables.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Fuel Gas-Electric Mariner

Antelope Valley Transit orders up to 85 electric buses from BYD; first US all-electric public transit fleet

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 12, 2016

All 85 buses will have a range of more than 160 miles on a single battery charge. AVTA is also installing a wireless charging system to extend the fleet’s range to ensure the electric buses will be able to serve the agency’s longest rural routes. AVTA is anticipating a cost savings as a result of electrifying its fleet.

All-Electric

All-Electric Fleet BYD Los Angeles

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 4, 2011

The report, Plug-In Electric Vehicles: A Practical Plan for Progress , examines public policies toward PEVs, taking into account the promise and limitations of PEVs, recent improvements in battery technology, market dynamics, and the proliferation of policies around the world that promote the use of PEVs.

Plug-in

Plug-in 2015 Plug Recharge

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. The passenger vehicle fleet doubles to almost 1.7 Oil and the Transport Sector: Reconfirming the End of Cheap Oil.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

Blog Archive ▼ 2009 (52) ▼ April (6) Waxman-Markey and REDD BlogRoll Review: Space Beams, Leaded Batteries, an. Several early models of passenger vehicles have enough energy stored in advanced batteries to power several homes for hours. Project Better Place plans to deploy a massive network of battery charging spots.

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

EV Driven

GlobalData: COVID-19 puts EV sales and CO2 fleet emission targets at risk

Report suggests low-speed electric vehicles could affect Chinese demand for gasoline and disrupt oil prices worldwide

BNEF forecasts EVs to hit 54% of new car sales by 2040; decreasing importance of PHEVs

Navigant forecasts global medium- and heavy-duty alt powertrain sales to exceed 820K units in 2026

Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024

Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

IHS Markit: global oil demand still growing in the short term despite increasing focus on EVs

Center for Automotive Research releases study on estimated US distribution pattern of electric vehicles through 2015; focus on incentives

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Economic Impact Study Finds Grid-Enabled Vehicle Policies in Electrification Coalition Roadmap Would Result in Substantial Economic Benefit for US

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

Antelope Valley Transit orders up to 85 electric buses from BYD; first US all-electric public transit fleet

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

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