Alternative Fuels, Battery, Forecast and Oil

Navigant forecasts global road transportation energy consumption to increase 25% by 2035; 84% from conventional fuels

Green Car Congress

JULY 28, 2014

In a new report ( Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption ), Navigant Research forecasts total road transportation energy consumption will grow from 81.1 Approximately 84% of that will be provided by conventional fuels. Annual road transportation sector energy consumption by fuel type, world markets: 2015-2035.

Transportation

Transportation Global Fuel Alternative Fuels

Navigant Research: plug-in electric vehicles close to becoming leading alternative fuel platform, best positioned to lead future

Green Car Congress

MARCH 14, 2019

In 2019, multiple deployments of long-range battery EVs (BEVs) in crossover classes, as well as Tesla reaching full-scale production on the Model 3 and expanding its vehicle shipments to markets abroad, are setting the stage for continued market growth, Navigant says. —Scott Shepard, senior research analyst with Navigant Research.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Future Plug-in Fuel

Navigant forecasts MHD vehicle market to nearly double by 2035 with declining share of conventional engines; gases win out over electricity

Green Car Congress

JULY 7, 2014

The number of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) in use worldwide will nearly double between 2014 and 2035, according to a new forecast report by Navigant Research. Navigant projects that annual MHDV sales will grow throughout the forecast period at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4%. of the market in 2014 to 11.2%

Market

Market Alternative Fuels Engine Gas-Electric

Navigant forecasts plug-in and fuel cell vehicles to be 2.5% of all vehicles in use in 2035; global parc of >2B vehicles

Green Car Congress

MAY 20, 2014

The company forecasts that annual LDV sales will grow to 126.9 over the forecast period—i.e., Hybrid-electric and natural-gas (HEVs and NGVs) will account for almost 8% of global share, while plug-in hybrid (PHEV), battery-electric (BEV), and fuel-cell electric (FCV) together will add up to almost 2.5%

Plug-in

Plug-in Global Plug Vehicles

Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015

Green Car Congress

JULY 6, 2015

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts global annual sales of light duty vehicles will reach 122.6 Navigant expects sales of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will fall significantly over the forecast period, experiencing a CAGR of -6.6%. Vehicles fueled exclusively by electricity will represent 1.3%

2015

2015 Global Sale PHEV

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 29, 2014

Well-to-Propeller GHG emissions results for marine alternative fuels. DNV GL has released a position paper on the future alternative fuel mix for global shipping. The global merchant fleet currently consumes around 330 million tonnes of fuel annually, 80-85 per cent of which is residual fuel with high sulfur content.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Fuel Gas-Electric Mariner

Navigant forecasts US military spending on non-tactical alt drive vehicles to more than double to $926M by 2020 from 2013; 11.4% CAGR

Green Car Congress

JULY 5, 2013

Non-tactical vehicle spending by alternative drive type, US Department of Defense: 2013-2020. Navigant forecasts that annual fuel consumption in the non-tactical fleet will decrease by a 2.5% The US military is the largest consumer of energy and fossil fuels on the planet. Source: Navigant Research. Click to enlarge.

2013

2013 2020 Alternative Fuels Vehicles

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. 2010, to above 140 $/bbl in constant 2010 dollars).

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

NRC report concludes US LDVs could cut oil consumption and GHGs by 80% by 2050; reliance on plug-ins, biofuels and hydrogen; strong policies mandatory

Green Car Congress

MARCH 18, 2013

Achieving those goals will will be difficult—but not impossible to meet—and will necessitate a combination of more efficient vehicles; the use of alternative fuels such as biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen; and strong government policies to overcome high costs and influence consumer choices.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen Oil Plug-in Fuel Economy

California Energy Commission awards more than $35M for green transportation in California

Green Car Congress

JUNE 1, 2012

The California Energy Commission unanimously approved funding of $35,031,310 to projects that will accelerate the development of green fuels and technology in California. These awards are provided through the Energy Commission’s Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program. Propel Biofuels, Inc.

California

California Transportation Green Energy

EIA projects decline in transportation sector energy consumption through 2037 despite increase in VMT, followed by increase

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 28, 2019

This growth arises from increases in air transportation outpacing increases in aircraft fuel efficiency. Motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil’s combined share of total transportation energy consumption decreases from 84% in 2018 to 74% in 2050 as the use of alternative fuels increases. Other findings.

Transportation

Transportation Energy Fuel Economy 2018

NPC report to Energy Secretary finds light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles could reduce per-mile GHG at least 40% by 2050; additional strategies required for further reductions

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 2, 2012

Projected range of impact of demand, fuel efficiency improvements, and alternative fuel-vehicle systems on light-duty fleet GHG emissions. For light-duty EVs, lithium-ion battery energy density; and lithium-ion battery degradation and longevity. For light-duty CNG, leveraging liquid ICE fuel economy technology.

Light

Light Miles Energy Lithium Ion

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Beyond 2035, LDV energy demand begins to level off as increases in travel demand begin to exceed fuel economy improvements in the vehicle stock. Sales of battery-powered electric vehicles are 65% lower in the AEO2013 Reference case than the year before, with annual sales in 2035 estimated to be about 119,000. Overall findings.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

Even until 2030 many alternative powertrain technologies such as PHEV, BEV and FCV lack relative cost competitiveness—but are important cornerstones in vehicle manufacturers’ CO 2 emission compliance strategies. GHG abatement in road transport sector will cost approx. 150-200 (US$172-229) per ton of CO 2 e avoided.

Emissions

Emissions Transportation Fuel Vehicles

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Click to enlarge. billion in 2035.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Major study concludes achieving EU 2050 transport decarbonization goals will require portfolio of advanced powertrains; fuel cells, battery-electric and plug-in hybrids

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 19, 2010

The study—“A portfolio of powertrains for Europe: a fact-based analysis”—compares the economics, sustainability and performance of fuel cell, battery-electric, hybrid-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in achieving the decarbonization goal. Total Raffinage Marketing.

Plug-in

Plug-in PHEV Transportation Plug

BP outlook: Energy demand grows as fuel mix continues to diversify; EVs in global car parc at 15% by 2040, but electric share of VMT at 30%

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 21, 2018

The global energy mix is the most diverse the world has ever seen by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around a quarter. Renewables are by far the fastest-growing fuel source, increasing five-fold and providing around 14% of primary energy. Fuel analysis.

Global

Global Energy Coal Fuel

Overflow crowd at DC plug-in conference

Plugs and Cars

JUNE 13, 2008

News of oil by the barrel and gas by the gallon reaching new highs had been dominating TV and print, so it was perhaps not surprising that the Google/Brookings Plug-in Electric Vehicle Conference saw overflow crowds. Bill Reinert of Toyota played the contrarian, forecasting a return, albeit temporary, to $2/gallon gasoline.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug DC Grid

EV Driven

Navigant forecasts global road transportation energy consumption to increase 25% by 2035; 84% from conventional fuels

Navigant Research: plug-in electric vehicles close to becoming leading alternative fuel platform, best positioned to lead future

Navigant forecasts MHD vehicle market to nearly double by 2035 with declining share of conventional engines; gases win out over electricity

Navigant forecasts plug-in and fuel cell vehicles to be 2.5% of all vehicles in use in 2035; global parc of >2B vehicles

Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

Navigant forecasts US military spending on non-tactical alt drive vehicles to more than double to $926M by 2020 from 2013; 11.4% CAGR

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

NRC report concludes US LDVs could cut oil consumption and GHGs by 80% by 2050; reliance on plug-ins, biofuels and hydrogen; strong policies mandatory

California Energy Commission awards more than $35M for green transportation in California

EIA projects decline in transportation sector energy consumption through 2037 despite increase in VMT, followed by increase

NPC report to Energy Secretary finds light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles could reduce per-mile GHG at least 40% by 2050; additional strategies required for further reductions

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Major study concludes achieving EU 2050 transport decarbonization goals will require portfolio of advanced powertrains; fuel cells, battery-electric and plug-in hybrids

BP outlook: Energy demand grows as fuel mix continues to diversify; EVs in global car parc at 15% by 2040, but electric share of VMT at 30%

Overflow crowd at DC plug-in conference

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