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Today’s Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

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As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. In a speech made at the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators’ 2017 International Petroleum Summit, Johnston laid out his concerns for the future of oil.

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Williams to process offgas in Canada’s oil sands; nearly 15,000 bpd of new NGL/olefins production by 2018; producer GHG reductions

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Williams has signed a new long-term gas processing agreement with a Canadian oil sands producer. The ethane price risk associated with this deal is mitigated via the previously announced long-term agreement to supply NOVA Chemicals Corporation with up to 17,000 bpd of ethane and ethylene.

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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels, according to IEO2011. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. Click to enlarge.

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IEA says oil supplies may not keep up with demand

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Despite what appears to be a saturated oil market in 2014, oil producers around the world will struggle to meet rising demand over the next few decades. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 37 percent by 2040, with a dominant proportion of that coming from developing countries—i.e. China and India.

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IHS Markit: US oil producers to halt 1.75 MMb/d per day of production; Canada to cut 0.5 MMb/d

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Due to the collapse in oil prices, IHS Markit expects US producers are in the process of curtailing about 1.75 This resumption of production may accelerate if WTI remains above $30 per barrel—a price that allows operators to cover their operating costs and that reflects improved storage availability. However, nearly 1.4

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Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

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World oil production capacity to 2020 (crude oil and NGLs, excluding biofuels). Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 Source: Maugeri 2012.

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RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

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However, the US military can play an important role in promoting stability in major oil producing regions and by helping protect the flow of energy through major transit corridors and on the high seas, the reports suggest. Earlier post.).

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