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Understanding the variability of GHG life cycle studies of oil sands production

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Full-fuel-cycle GHG emissions estimates for reformulated gasoline pathways by LCA study. He found that the variation in oil sands GHG estimates is due to a variety of causes. These include oil sands, enhanced oil recovery, coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids synthetic fuels, and oil shale.

Oil-Sands 225
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Argonne study finds shale gas GHG lifecycle emissions 6% lower than natural gas, 23% lower than gasoline and 33% lower than coal; upstream methane leakage a key contributor

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Gasoline section shows results for fuel derived from both conventional oil and oil sands. However, the range in values for shale and conventional gas overlap, so there is a statistical uncertainty whether shale gas emissions are actually lower than those of conventional natural gas. Click to enlarge.

Gas 284
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Ecofys report concludes current European regulations underestimating GHG reductions

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The study was commissioned by the European Oilseed Alliance (EOA), the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) and the European Vegetable Oil and Proteinmeal Industry (FEDIOL). In addition, they argue, biofuels should not just be compared to the average performance of gasoline or diesel but with the fossil fuels they most likely replace—i.e.

Oil-Sands 236
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Researchers describe the “where” and “when” of life cycle emissions from gasoline and ethanol in the US

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Researchers from the University of Minnesota have produced a spatially and temporally explicit life cycle inventory (LCI) of air pollutants from gasoline, ethanol derived from corn grain, and ethanol from corn stover for the contiguous US (the lower 48 states). Credit: ACS, Tessum et al. Click to enlarge. the contiguous US).

Gasoline 236
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ExxonMobil Outlook: 35% growth in energy demand by 2040; hybrids to account for ~50% of new vehicle sales

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ExxonMobil projects that meeting future energy demand will be supported by more efficient energy-saving practices and technologies; increased use of less-carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas, nuclear and renewables; as well as the continued development of technology advances to develop new energy sources. Natural gas.

Oil-Sands 309
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New petroleum refining lifecycle model finds the variability in GHG emissions from refining different crudes as significant as magnitude expected in upstream operations

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Comparison of GHGenius, JACOBS, TIAX, and the new PRELIM gasoline greenhouse gas (GHG) estimates using base case estimates and variations from the scenario analysis. Annual GHG emissions from a large refinery are comparable to the emissions of a typical 500 MW coal-fired power plant. Credit: ACS, Abella and Bergerson.

Oil-Sands 236
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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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Across OECD nations, the Outlook assumes the implied cost of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will reach about $80 per tonne in 2040. The Outlook for Energy identifies a significant evolution in the trade of oil and other liquids. Half of that increase will come from the Asia Pacific region, led by China.

Energy 252