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EIA projects decline in transportation sector energy consumption through 2037 despite increase in VMT, followed by increase

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For the Transportation sector, EIA projects that energy consumption will decline between 2019 and 2037 (in the Reference case) because increases in fuel economy more than offset growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). However, US coal shipments, which are primarily via rail, decline slightly. trillion miles in 2018 to 3.5

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ORNL study finds best current use of natural gas for cars is efficient production of electricity for EVs

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However, they also noted, high PTW efficiencies and the moderate fuel economies of current compressed natural gas vehicles (CNGVs) make them a viable option as well. The study investigated the the WTW energy and emissions from the use of natural gas in CNGVs with a range of CNGV fuel economy and natural gas compressor efficiency.

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National Research Council Report on Americas Energy Future Highlights Vehicle Efficiency Technologies, Conversion of Biomass and Coal-to-Liquids Fuels, and Electrifying the Light Duty Fleet with PHEVs, BEVs and FCVs

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Improvements result from an optimistic scenario achieving doubling of new vehicle fuel economy in 2035 from today’s value. Developing technologies for the conversion of biomass and coal-to-liquid fuels. from liquid-fuel production plants is captured and stored geologically. Source: America’s Energy Future, Fig.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Increased sales for hybrids and PHEVs. quadrillion Btu in 2035, as a result of fuel economy improvements achieved through stock turnover as older, less efficient vehicles are replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient vehicles. quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 14.0 million, or less than one-half the 2.9 mpg in 2025.

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BP Energy Outlook: 30% growth in global demand to 2035; fuel demand continues to rise, even with EVs & fuel efficiency

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While non-fossil fuels are expected to account for half of the growth in energy supplies over the next 20 years, the Outlook projects that oil and gas, together with coal, will remain the main source of energy powering the world economy, accounting for more than 75% of total energy supply in 2035, compared with 86% in 2015.

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J.D. Power forecasts hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles will represent 7.3% of global auto sales in 2020

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Power and Associates estimates combined global sales of hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) will total 5.2 Global HEV, PHEV and BEV sales in 2010 are forecasted to total 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2% million units in 2020, or some 7.3% Power and Associates.

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Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

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The database includes joint Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and GHG emission standards for LDVs. The Boulder team’s BAU reference scenario was unmodified from the 2014 EPA US9R database, including EPA’s efficiency and cost estimates for future gasoline ICEV, HEV, PHEV, BEV, and ethanol vehicles.

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