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EIA expects record global petroleum consumption in 2024, with lower crude oil prices

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EIA expects crude oil prices to decrease through 2023 and 2024, even as petroleum consumption increases, largely because growth in crude oil production in the United States and abroad will continue to increase over the next two years. Areas of uncertainty include Russian oil supply and OPEC production.

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EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

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The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an increase in demand for petroleum products during the 2021 summer driving season as the impacts of COVID-19 diminish in the United States. EIA also forecasts the Brent crude oil price will average $64 per barrel this summer, a 78% increase from last summer’s average of $36 per barrel.

2019 186
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EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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However, fossil fuels continue to supply nearly 80% of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane increase. per year over the projection period, but remain a relatively minor share of total liquids supply through 2040.

2010 317
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EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

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The estimates developed in the study have now been incorporated into EIA’s historical data and forecasts of petroleum and other liquids consumption in China. The main effect of this change on the forecasted STEO liquid fuels market balances is that the higher consumption in 2014 raises the baseline to which the STEO forecast benchmarks.

2000 150
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IEA: global map of oil refining and trade to be redrawn over next 5 years

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Profound shifts in the regional distribution of oil demand and supply growth will redefine the refining industry and transform global oil trade over the next five years, according to the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Oil 255
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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels, according to IEO2011. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. Click to enlarge.

Oil-Sands 220
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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The forecast’s base case points to primary energy use growing by nearly 40% over the next twenty years, with 93% of the growth coming from non-OECD (Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. The region’s total demand for oil and other liquids peaked in 2005 and will be back at roughly the level of 1990 by 2030.

Energy 210