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EIA expects record global petroleum consumption in 2024, with lower crude oil prices

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EIA expects crude oil prices to decrease through 2023 and 2024, even as petroleum consumption increases, largely because growth in crude oil production in the United States and abroad will continue to increase over the next two years. Areas of uncertainty include Russian oil supply and OPEC production.

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BP Statistical Review finds global oil share down for 12th year in a row, coal share up to highest level since 1969; renewables at 2%

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China alone accounted for 71% of energy consumption growth. Oil demand grew by less than 1%—the slowest rate amongst fossil fuels—while gas grew by 2.2%, and coal was the only fossil fuel with above average annual consumption growth at 5.4% The averages hide a mixed picture by fuel, however. globally, and 8.4%

Coal 261
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Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

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savings stimulated by high oil prices led to a decrease of 3% in CO 2 emissions in the European Union and of 2% in both the United States and Japan. Emissions from OECD countries now account for only one third of global CO 2 emissions—the same share as that of China and India. the United States (16%). India (6%).

2011 236
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EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

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China is the global leader in methanol use and has recently expanded its methanol production capacity. The estimates developed in the study have now been incorporated into EIA’s historical data and forecasts of petroleum and other liquids consumption in China. Annual methanol consumption in China, 2000-16. Methanol in China.

2000 150
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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels, according to IEO2011. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. Click to enlarge.

Oil-Sands 220
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EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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However, fossil fuels continue to supply nearly 80% of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane increase. per year over the projection period, but remain a relatively minor share of total liquids supply through 2040.

2010 317
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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World energy growth over the next twenty years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030. Coal will increase by 1.2% Click to enlarge.

Energy 210