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Baker Institute report: China has positioned itself as a gatekeeper to the energy transition; nickel case study

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Widely ignored, although gaining attention, is China’s strategic positioning as a crucial gatekeeper to several key “green” technologies, including battery energy storage to support electric vehicles (EVs)—specifically, battery electric vehicles (BEVs)—along with stationary storage for power grids.

China 416
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Study finds behavior-influencing policies remain critical for mass market success of low-carbon vehicles

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Policies to entice consumers away from fossil-fuel powered vehicles and normalize low carbon, alternative-fuel alternatives, such as electric vehicles, are vital if the world is to significantly reduce transport sector carbon pure-emissions, according to a new study. Share of EDVs in 2050. —David McCollum.

Carbon 231
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BCG study finds conventional automotive technologies have high CO2 reduction potential at lower cost; stiff competition for electric cars

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Although battery costs will fall sharply (approximately 64% from 2009 levels) to $400 per usable kWh at the pack level, this still represents a cost of $9,600 per vehicle to the consumer for the typical 20 kWh battery necessary for a pure battery EV. —“Powering Autos to 2020” (draft). Source: BCG.

CO2 246
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Belfer Center Study Concludes Reducing Car and Truck GHG Emissions Will Require Substantially Higher Fuel Prices; Income Tax Credits for Advanced Alt Fuel Vehicles Are Essentially Ineffective at Reducing Sector Emissions

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CO 2 emissions from transportation sector by scenario in the study. Direct transportation (fuel) taxes generate the greatest reductions in CO 2 emission from transportation, achieving CO 2 emissions at 86% of 2005 levels by about 2025. Source: Morrow et al. Click to enlarge. —Morrow et al.

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Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

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Without significant additional policy interventions to induce market penetration of breakthrough passenger car and aircraft technologies, the overall European (EU27) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals for 2050 will be difficult to meet, according to a new study by researchers from the University of Cambridge, Stanford University and MIT.

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Congressional Budget Office estimates US federal policies promoting EVs and other fuel-efficient vehicles will cost $7.5B through 2019; little or no impact on gasoline use and GHG in the short term

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Tax credits and gasoline prices necessary for various electric vehicles to be cost-competitive with conventional vehicles at 2011 vehicle prices. The electric vehicles that are the focus of this study fall into two broad classes: plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery-electric vehicles. Source: CBO. Click to enlarge.

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California ARB mods to ZEV regulations for IVMs would result in ~1.9% drop in total ZEV/TZEV units 2018-2025; no impact on air quality requirements

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In addition, although many experts say that the solution to our energy and climate problems is sending the correct price signals to industry and consumers, the transport sector’s behavior is highly inelastic in that it does not change significantly in response to changes in fuel prices, at least in the range that is politically acceptable.

2018 257