2020, Coal, Economy and Oil Prices

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 7, 2021

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that, absent significant changes in policy or technology, world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50% between 2020 and 2050. Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

Global

Global Energy Emissions Asia

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

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DECEMBER 22, 2014

The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Carbon

EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

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APRIL 7, 2021

EIA also forecasts the Brent crude oil price will average $64 per barrel this summer, a 78% increase from last summer’s average of $36 per barrel. That price increase paired with an increase in gasoline and diesel demand will likely increase the cost of regular gasoline and diesel fuel this summer. million b/d from March 2020.

2019

2019 Fuel Coal 2020

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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JANUARY 19, 2011

World energy growth over the next twenty years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030. Click to enlarge. per year.

Energy

Energy Economy Global Oil-Sands

IIASA: removing fossil fuel subsidies will not reduce CO2 emissions as much as hoped

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FEBRUARY 8, 2018

However, the study found that the growth of CO 2 emissions by 2030 would only be 1-5% lower than if subsidies had been maintained, regardless of whether oil prices are low or high. Impact of subsidy removal on cumulative change in emissions from 2020 to 2030 at the regional level (colored bars). This equates to 0.5-2

Emissions

Emissions Fuel CO2 Oil

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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SEPTEMBER 20, 2011

World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil 2008 Oil Prices

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

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JANUARY 23, 2012

Net petroleum imports as a share of total US liquid fuels consumed drop from 49% in 2010 to 38% in 2020 and 36% in 2035 in AEO2012. Over the next 10 years, continued development of tight oil (e.g., shale oil) combined with the development of offshore Gulf of Mexico resources are projected to push domestic crude oil production to 6.7

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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NOVEMBER 12, 2012

The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO ’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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DECEMBER 17, 2010

It also incorporated California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard—which reduces the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel fuels in that State by 10% from 2012 through 2020, and incorporated changes in environmental rules at the State level. Beyond 2020, CAFE standards for both passenger cars and light-duty trucks are held constant.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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DECEMBER 5, 2012

new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy. quadrillion Btu in 2035, as a result of fuel economy improvements achieved through stock turnover as older, less efficient vehicles are replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient vehicles. million, or less than one-half the 2.9 than in AEO2012.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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DECEMBER 16, 2013

The rising fuel economy of LDVs more than offsets the modest growth in VMT, resulting in a 25% decline in LDV energy consumption decline between 2012 and 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case. Domestic crude oil production increases sharply in the AEO2014 Reference case, with annual growth averaging 0.8 per year, from 21.5

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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JULY 2, 2013

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. Historical scenario. (A) But after ?2020,

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2010

The California LCFS calls for at least a 10% reduction from 2006 levels in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO 2 e/MJ) of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. It will protect us from volatile oil prices and provide consumers with cleaner fuels and provide the nation with greater energy security. Earlier post.).

California

California Oil-Sands Oil 2005

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2013

China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The Middle East becomes the world’s second-largest gas consumer by 2020 and third-largest oil consumer by 2030, redefining its role in global energy markets.

Oil

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions

EV Driven

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

IIASA: removing fossil fuel subsidies will not reduce CO2 emissions as much as hoped

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

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