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Opinion: Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Oil Prices

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Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. But along with all of the excess crude flowing from the oil patch, there is also an abundance of market indicators that while important, tend to produce a lot of noise that makes any accurate estimate nearly impossible.

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CAR: US light-duty vehicle sales to dip in 2019

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US Light Vehicle Sales, 2015-2018, and CAR’s Forecast, 2019-2025. Solid new housing starts and home prices rebounding to pre-recession levels. Potential impact of trade negotiations with China, Japan, EU, and UK. CAR projects sales to rebound to 16.8 million units by 2022 and continue an upward trend through 2025.

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Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

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According to a new report from Pike Research, the various national-level initiatives and programs to promote the awareness of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Asia-Pacific region will help make the region the largest market worldwide for electrified vehicles, led by strong demand in China, Japan, and Korea. billion in 2015.

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Saudis Expand Price War Downstream

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The undisputed king of oil and gas is making some moves that could change the face of the global refining sector. In June 2015, Saudi Arabia pumped a record 10.564 million barrels a day, a record level. The gross refining margin is nothing but the difference between the value of the refined products and price of the crude oil.

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Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half

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million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6.0 Navigant estimates that sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) accounted for roughly 19% of electrified vehicle sales in 2015; in 2024, Navigant expects light duty PEVs to capture between 47% and 51% of the electrified vehicle market. million in 2024. through 2024, according to Navigant.

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3 Years Of Painful Cuts Sets Oil Markets Up For Serious Supply Crunch

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It might be that we see quite a dramatic reduction in replacing the capacity and of course that will have an impact, eventually, on price.”. Oil companies are making painful cuts to spending, which will translate into much lower production than expected in the years ahead. The price acts as a self-correcting mechanism.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. An explosion of hybrid sales in Japan. Click to enlarge.