2013, Carbon, Oil Prices and Transportation

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

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DECEMBER 22, 2014

The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Carbon

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

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NOVEMBER 13, 2013

The newly released 2013 edition of the IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) depicts a world in which some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten; importers are becoming exporters, while exporters are among the major sources of growing demand. —WEO-2013. Oil use grows, but in a narrowing set of markets.

Oil

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions

VTT study concludes gasification-based pathways can deliver low-carbon fuels from biomass for about 1.90-2.65 US$/gallon

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JULY 4, 2013

The horizontal red lines show the comparable price of gasoline (before tax, refining margin 0.3 $/gal, exchange rate: 1 € = 1.326 $) with crude oil prices 100 $/bbl and 150 $/bbl. Converted into gasoline-equivalent price per liter, the estimated production cost would be 0.5–0.7 Source: VTT. 0.7 €/liter (app. 0.7 €/liter.

Carbon

Carbon Fuel Finland Gasoline

ICCT updates US airline fuel efficiency rankings; Alaska stays on top, American on bottom

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OCTOBER 22, 2015

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has released its annual update on the fuel efficiency of US airlines. The Fuel Efficiency Score (FES) is a unitless fuel efficiency metric that indicates the transport service provided by an airline per unit fuel consumed relative to other airlines. from 2013 to 2014.

Alaska

Alaska Fuel 2014 2013

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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DECEMBER 5, 2012

Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. The US Energy Information Administration released its Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Reference case (the Early Release ), which highlights a growth in total US energy production that exceeds growth in total US energy consumption through 2040. Click to enlarge. than in AEO2012.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

IHS-CERA concludes “no material impact” on US GHG from Keystone XL; heavy crude from Venezuela most likely replacement

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AUGUST 9, 2013

The proposed Keystone XL pipeline for transporting oilsands-derived crude to Gulf Coast refineries would have “ no material impact ” on US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according to a new Insight report by IHS CERA. This indicates that oil sands can grow using rail; it is already happening. million barrels per day (mbd) in 2013 to 4.3

Venezuela

Venezuela Oil-Sands Oil Canada

ICCT suggests minor changes to Fed tax policy to cut higher investment risk of 2nd-gen biofuels and advance the industry

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DECEMBER 22, 2013

biofuel made from cellulose, algae, duckweed, or cyanobacteria) could mitigate the current elevated risk of investing in the industry that is retarding its advance, according to a new paper by a team from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and Johns Hopkins University. RFS and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

Tax

Tax Tax Credit Industrial Industry

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

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NOVEMBER 10, 2009

Accenture has identified 12 technologies that it concludes have the potential to disrupt the current views of transport fuels supply, demand and GHG emissions over the next 10 years. Will be competitive at an oil price of $45 to $90 at their commercial date. Source: Accenture. Click to enlarge. Waste-to-fuel. Marine scrubbers.

Transportation

Transportation Supplies Emissions Fuel

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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JULY 2, 2013

Adam Brandt and his colleagues used historical relationships to project future demand for (a) transport services; (b) all liquid fuels; and (c) substitution with alternative energy carriers, including electricity. Their results showed great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil.

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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DECEMBER 16, 2013

The large decline in LDV energy consumption in AEO2014 shrinks the LDV modal share of total transportation energy consumption from 60% in 2012 to 47% in 2040. quadrillion Btu in AEO2013, and represents the largest growth among all transportation modes. Transportation energy consumption is considerably lower in AEO2014 (25.5

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

Green Car Congress

MARCH 2, 2013

The DOS SEIS accordingly takes a detailed look at life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of petroleum products from Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) oil sands crudes compared with reference crudes and the potential impact the pipeline might have on climate change as well as on the future development of the oils sands resource in Canada.

Climate Change

Climate Change Oil-Sands Nebraska Climate

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

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JANUARY 29, 2014

DNV and GL merged in September 2013 to form DNV GL—the world’s largest ship and offshore classification society, the leading technical advisor to the global oil and gas industry, and a leading expert for the energy value chain including renewables and energy efficiency. —“Alternative Fuels for Shipping”.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Fuel Gas-Electric Mariner

EV Driven

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

VTT study concludes gasification-based pathways can deliver low-carbon fuels from biomass for about 1.90-2.65 US$/gallon

ICCT updates US airline fuel efficiency rankings; Alaska stays on top, American on bottom

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

IHS-CERA concludes “no material impact” on US GHG from Keystone XL; heavy crude from Venezuela most likely replacement

ICCT suggests minor changes to Fed tax policy to cut higher investment risk of 2nd-gen biofuels and advance the industry

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

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