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IHS Automotive forecasts 88.6M unit global light vehicle market in 2015; 2.4% growth

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IHS Automotive forecasts global automotive sales for 2015 to reach 88.6 over 2014, continuing an unbroken five-year run of sales recovery and growth from the low point set in the depth of the Great Recession in 2009. The North American market will continue its upswing, though the pace differs by country. North America.

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IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

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These scenarios provide projections based on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2012 Reference Case, advances in battery technology (e.g., improved battery chemistry that allows for faster and deeper charging and reductions in battery cell and other component costs), and oil prices increasing to $200 per barrel: Low.

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Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

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The Q1 2013 index (top) shows that the 7 top automotive nations have seen their competitive positions shift since 2012 (bottom). None of the subsidy programs that ended at the end of 2012 were renewed. Forecasts for vehicle sales in China, the US and Japan have been corrected downward. Source: Roland Berger. Click to enlarge.

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The $32-Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry

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Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. The latter is partly caused by “global warming constraints” and lower oil prices in general.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Increased sales for hybrids and PHEVs. Projected sales of alternative-fuel vehicles in the AEO2013 Reference case are lower than in AEO2012, with the majority of the reduction reflected in sales of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), which in 2035 are about 1.3 million FFV sales in the AEO2012 Reference case. Overall findings.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

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UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

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In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. lower on a per-mile basis than gasoline-powered cars, depending on the future price of oil. Becker (2009).