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UC Davis report proposes mileage fee for EVs, maintaining fuel tax for ICEs to support road repairs

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A research report submitted to the California Legislature this week by the University of California, Davis’ Institute of Transportation Studies proposes switching EVs to a mileage-based road-funding fee (road user charge, RUC) while continuing to have gasoline-powered cars pay gasoline taxes.

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Study finds behavior-influencing policies remain critical for mass market success of low-carbon vehicles

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Policies to entice consumers away from fossil-fuel powered vehicles and normalize low carbon, alternative-fuel alternatives, such as electric vehicles, are vital if the world is to significantly reduce transport sector carbon pure-emissions, according to a new study. Share of EDVs in 2050. McCollum et al.

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BCG study finds conventional automotive technologies have high CO2 reduction potential at lower cost; stiff competition for electric cars

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As a result, BCG concludes, the electric car faces stiff competition from ICEs (internal combustion engines) and, based solely on total cost of ownership (TCO) economics, will not be the preferred option for most consumers. A combination of peak oil with incentives or lower battery costs could increase EV penetration by 6%.

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Belfer Center Study Concludes Reducing Car and Truck GHG Emissions Will Require Substantially Higher Fuel Prices; Income Tax Credits for Advanced Alt Fuel Vehicles Are Essentially Ineffective at Reducing Sector Emissions

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CO 2 emissions from transportation sector by scenario in the study. It also finds that, while relying on subsidies for electric or hybrid vehicles is politically attractive, it is an extremely expensive and ineffective way to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near term. Source: Morrow et al. Click to enlarge.

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Congressional Budget Office estimates US federal policies promoting EVs and other fuel-efficient vehicles will cost $7.5B through 2019; little or no impact on gasoline use and GHG in the short term

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Tax credits and gasoline prices necessary for various electric vehicles to be cost-competitive with conventional vehicles at 2011 vehicle prices. The electric vehicles that are the focus of this study fall into two broad classes: plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery-electric vehicles.

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California ARB mods to ZEV regulations for IVMs would result in ~1.9% drop in total ZEV/TZEV units 2018-2025; no impact on air quality requirements

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In addition, although many experts say that the solution to our energy and climate problems is sending the correct price signals to industry and consumers, the transport sector’s behavior is highly inelastic in that it does not change significantly in response to changes in fuel prices, at least in the range that is politically acceptable.

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UC report to CalEPA outlines policy options to decarbonize California transportation by 2045

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A second study led by UC Santa Barbara was released simultaneously. The state funded the two studies through the 2019 Budget Act. The studies are designed to identify paths to slash transportation-related fossil fuel demand and emissions while also managing a strategic, responsible decline in transportation-related fossil fuel supply.