Alternative Fuels, Cost, Economy and Oil Prices

Study finds carbon emissions benefits of reduction in oil demand depend on size of drop and global oil market structure

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 4, 2021

Everyone knows about these market structures, but by considering it, we show the structure is very important in a global economy. The way the structures play out impacts the kinds of oil fields that will be at the margins and struggling to stay afloat. 2021) “Carbon implications of marginal oils from market-derived demand shocks.”

Oil

Oil Carbon Global Market

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

The study was commissioned by a coalition of fuel suppliers and automotive companies with a view to identifying a roadmap to 2030+ to identify GHG abatement options at the lowest cost to society. GHG abatement in road transport sector will cost approx. 150-200 (US$172-229) per ton of CO 2 e avoided. 34 Mton CO 2 e (WTW).

Emissions

Emissions Transportation Fuel Vehicles

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy. Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 28, 2011

The DOE-QTR defines six key strategies: increase vehicle efficiency; electrification of the light duty fleet; deploy alternative fuels; increase building and industrial efficiency; modernize the electrical grid; and deploy clean electricity. Impartial DOE research can help inform these standards. —QTR.

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Economy Light Fuel

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand.

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2012

From a cost perspective, the potential of alternative fuels is of limited, if any value, according to the lead report written by James Bartis, a RAND senior policy researcher. Alternative liquid fuels do not offer DoD a way to appreciably reduce fuel costs. Earlier post.). —Bartis 2012.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Price Turkey Fuel

Perspective: Ending Oils Monopolya Blueprint for Mobility Choice

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2009

Oil is a strategic commodity second to none—it underlies the global economy and even the American way of life. Of course, other countries benefit from this fact, with about $900 million flowing out of the US to buy foreign oil every day, and about 40% of that going to OPEC. [

Oil

Oil Transportation Congress Fuel Economy

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2010

California’s LCFS also would have little or no impact on GHG emissions nationwide and would harm our nation’s energy security by discouraging the use of Canadian crude oil—our nation’s largest source of crude—and ethanol produced in the American Midwest. This is a critical tool to help us break our dependence on fossil fuels.

California

California Oil-Sands Oil 2005

CAR releases study on use of bio-based materials in automotive sector; potential for the Great Lakes Region

Green Car Congress

MARCH 30, 2012

Encouraging bio-manufacturing and its associated value chain development, and building upon its current expertise in producing conventional parts for automakers, may position the Great Lakes region at a global competitive advantage as oil prices climb, and the demand for more bio-based parts increases.

Polymer

Polymer Cars Automobile Standards

Mixed Outlook for Mainstream Consumer Adoption of PHEVs

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 14, 2009

The Most Plausible Early Market consumers value fuel economy. It allows supplier and manufacturer cost reduction through multiple product generation. That could yield more than 50 mpg of fuel economy—or usage of less than 300 gallons per year—and still be a lot cheaper than a plug-in hybrid or a fuel cell vehicle, he noted.

PHEV

PHEV Fuel Economy San Diego Climate Change

NREL launches new alternative transportation web tools; planning, maps, data

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 10, 2012

One of the many charts available from the maps and data library on the AFDC site, this shows the number of light-duty alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and diesel models offered by vehicle manufacturers from 1991 through 2012. Click to enlarge.

Transportation

Transportation Alternative Fuels Fleet Fuel Economy

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. By contrast, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010. The passenger vehicle fleet doubles to almost 1.7

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Energy

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

Green Car Congress

JULY 19, 2012

Building on LCFS policies already adopted in Europe, British Columbia, and California, the researchers looked at potential costs and benefits of reducing the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 10 to 15 percent by 2030. All of this helps achieve LCFS targets in the most cost-effective manner.

Carbon

Carbon Oil-Sands Standards Design

EV Driven

Study finds carbon emissions benefits of reduction in oil demand depend on size of drop and global oil market structure

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Perspective: Ending Oils Monopolya Blueprint for Mobility Choice

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

CAR releases study on use of bio-based materials in automotive sector; potential for the Great Lakes Region

Mixed Outlook for Mainstream Consumer Adoption of PHEVs

NREL launches new alternative transportation web tools; planning, maps, data

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

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