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IIASA: removing fossil fuel subsidies will not reduce CO2 emissions as much as hoped

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Fossil fuel subsidies amount to hundreds of billions of dollars worldwide, and removing them has been held up as a key answer to climate change mitigation. However, the study found that the growth of CO 2 emissions by 2030 would only be 1-5% lower than if subsidies had been maintained, regardless of whether oil prices are low or high.

Emissions 186
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Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

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savings stimulated by high oil prices led to a decrease of 3% in CO 2 emissions in the European Union and of 2% in both the United States and Japan. The United States remain one of the largest emitters of CO2, with 17.3 At 3%, the 2011 increase in global CO 2 emissions is above the past decade’s average annual increase of 2.7%.

2011 236
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EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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With prices expected to increase in the long term, however, the world oil price in real 2011 dollars reaches $106 per barrel in 2020 and $163 per barrel in 2040, according to IEO2013. Biomass Climate Change Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) Emissions Forecasts Fuels Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) Market Background'

2010 317
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Study Finds That CO2 Standards for Vehicles Can Reduce Price of Oil

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A new study by the French institute Enerdata, commissioned by the European Federation for Transport & Environment (T&E), suggests that the European CO 2 standards for new vehicles due to come into effect in 2012 will lead not only to a European savings on oil (mainly via lower oil import volumes) but also to slightly lower global oil prices.

Oil 150
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Annual Increase in Global CO2 Emissions Halved in 2008; Decrease in Fossil Oil Consumption, Increase in Renewables Share

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In addition to high oil prices and the financial crisis, the increased use of new renewable energy sources, such as biofuels for road transport and wind energy for electricity generation, had a noticeable and mitigating impact on CO 2 emissions. Global CO2 emissions increased from 15.3 Source: PBL. Click to enlarge.

2008 170
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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At the same time, oil—and gas—import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share of biofuels. Global consumption growth is also impacted by higher oil prices in recent years and a gradual reduction of subsidies in oil-importing countries.

Energy 210
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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030.

2006 150