2012, Oil, Oil Prices and Purchase

IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

Green Car Congress

APRIL 22, 2013

These scenarios provide projections based on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2012 Reference Case, advances in battery technology (e.g., improved battery chemistry that allows for faster and deeper charging and reductions in battery cell and other component costs), and oil prices increasing to $200 per barrel: Low.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Vehicles 2012 Light

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2012

However, the US military can play an important role in promoting stability in major oil producing regions and by helping protect the flow of energy through major transit corridors and on the high seas, the reports suggest. —Bartis 2012. Earlier post.).

Price

Price Oil-Sands Turkey Fuel

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Green Car Congress

JULY 14, 2009

In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. The high rate of adoption is driven by the low purchase price and operating costs of electric cars with switchable batteries.

Electric Cars

Electric Cars Batteries Battery Market

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

AEO2013 offers a number of other key findings, including: Crude oil production , especially from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. Overall findings. Biomass and biofuels growth is slower.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Center for Automotive Research releases study on estimated US distribution pattern of electric vehicles through 2015; focus on incentives

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 13, 2011

The study is not a forecast sales of electric vehicles; rather, it estimates electric vehicle deployment by state, using other forecasts of total electric vehicle sales in the US to generate a reasonable approximation of what electric vehicle sales might look like for the period 2012 to 2015.

2015

2015 Electric Vehicles Vehicles Sale

Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

Green Car Congress

MAY 22, 2013

The Q1 2013 index (top) shows that the 7 top automotive nations have seen their competitive positions shift since 2012 (bottom). None of the subsidy programs that ended at the end of 2012 were renewed. Extracting oil by fracking could stabilize the oil price over the next few years. Source: Roland Berger.

South Korea

South Korea Sale France Plug-in

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 8, 2011

and model 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015. The President has announced that the FY 2012 Budget will include enhanced R&D investments in battery and other electric drive technologies. These could lead to additional production capacity of several hundred thousand EVs not accounted for in this table. Fisker Karma EREV. Fisker Nina EREV.

2015

2015 Plug-in Tax Credit Plug

Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

Green Car Congress

APRIL 12, 2012

They assessed purchaser technology choice for new vehicles on a cost-effectiveness basis using net present value (NPV) as a decision criterion, with parameters chosen to take account of factors such as consumer myopia with regard to fuel cost savings. R&D as above, plus a €3000/vehicle purchase subsidy for fuel cell electric vehicles.

Transportation

Transportation Europe Climate Change Emissions

RAC Foundation: 830,000 households in UK spend at least 27% of their income on running a car; “transport poverty”

Green Car Congress

MARCH 7, 2013

By contrast, those in the wealthiest car-owning households are spending around 12% of their disposable incomes on purchasing and operating a car. Of a total weekly expenditure of £167 (US$250), those in the poorest car-owning households see £44 (US$66) go on vehicle-related purchasing and operating costs.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Cars Price

United Airlines invests $30M in Fulcrum BioEnergy; renewable jet fuel offtake agreement, potential joint development of production

Green Car Congress

JUNE 30, 2015

United has also negotiated a long-term supply agreement with Fulcrum and, subject to availability, will have the opportunity to purchase at least 90 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel a year for a minimum of 10 years at a cost that is competitive with conventional jet fuel.

Renewable

Renewable Fuel Alternative Fuels Los Angeles

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

Green Car Congress

JULY 19, 2012

Very broadly, they found that an LCFS would buffer the economy against global oil price spikes, trim demand for petroleum, and lessen upward pressure on gas prices. Treat all crude oils as part of the overall pool of transportation fuels. We did not shy away from controversy. We are not advocates.

Carbon

Carbon Oil-Sands Standards Design

EV Driven

IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Center for Automotive Research releases study on estimated US distribution pattern of electric vehicles through 2015; focus on incentives

Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

RAC Foundation: 830,000 households in UK spend at least 27% of their income on running a car; “transport poverty”

United Airlines invests $30M in Fulcrum BioEnergy; renewable jet fuel offtake agreement, potential joint development of production

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

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