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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 12.1 from 2012 to 2040, compared to 1.2% The rising fuel economy of LDVs more than offsets the modest growth in VMT, resulting in a 25% decline in LDV energy consumption decline between 2012 and 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case. l/100 km) in 2012 to 37.2 l/100 km) in 2012 to 37.2

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Increased sales for hybrids and PHEVs. Projected sales of alternative-fuel vehicles in the AEO2013 Reference case are lower than in AEO2012, with the majority of the reduction reflected in sales of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), which in 2035 are about 1.3 Click to enlarge.

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UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

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In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. Electric Cars in the United States: A New Model with Forecasts to 2030” was written by Thomas Becker, a Ph.D.

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US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

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Costs of light-duty plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are high—largely due to their lithium-ion batteries—and unlikely to drastically decrease in the near future, according to a new report from the National Research Council (NRC). It has a 40-mile electric range, a larger electric motor, and a much larger battery than the PHEV-10.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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Among the transportation-related updates going into AEO2011, the EIA increased the limit for blending ethanol into gasoline for approved vehicles from 10% to 15%, as a result of the waiver granted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 2010. Unconventional vehicle sales. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

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National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

Green Car Congress

Very broadly, they found that an LCFS would buffer the economy against global oil price spikes, trim demand for petroleum, and lessen upward pressure on gas prices. Set a target of reducing the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel by 10 to 15 percent by 2030. Create separate fuel pools for gasoline and diesel.

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