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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020 150
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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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Personal air travel (billion seat-miles) grows by an average of 0.7% Some other key findings of the AEO2014 Reference case include: Low natural gas prices boost natural gas-intensive industries. Industrial shipments are expected to grow at 3.0% Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation.

Oil 290
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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030.

2006 150
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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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Relatively lower projected industrial output leads to lower vehicle-miles traveled by freight trucks, more than offsetting the relatively lower projected fuel economy of heavy vehicles. quadrillion Btu projected in the AEO2010 Reference case, due to relatively lower disposable personal income. quadrillion Btu in 2009 to 6.7

Gas 199
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MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

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Electrification will also reduce oil dependence, providing foreign policy benefits and the potential to reduce real oil prices and oil price volatility. With the current fuel mix of the US power sector (about half coal, about 30% “carbon-free”), CO 2 emissions for HEVs and EVs are similar.

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EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). Other liquids refer to natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids [BTL]), gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), kerogen (i.e.,

Asia 341
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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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The 450 Scenario works back from the international goal of limiting the long-term increase in the global mean temperature to two degrees Celsius (2 °C) above pre-industrial levels, in order to trace a plausible pathway to that goal. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035.

Oil 247