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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020 150
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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy. quadrillion Btu in 2025, due to incorporation of the model year 2017 to 2025 GHG and CAFE standards for LDVs. Growth in diesel fuel consumption will be moderated by the increased use of natural gas in heavy-duty vehicles.

Fuel 225
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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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It also incorporated California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard—which reduces the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel fuels in that State by 10% from 2012 through 2020, and incorporated changes in environmental rules at the State level. Unconventional vehicle sales. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

Gas 199
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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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The rising fuel economy of LDVs more than offsets the modest growth in VMT, resulting in a 25% decline in LDV energy consumption decline between 2012 and 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case. Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation. from 2012 to 2040, compared to 1.2% per year, from 21.5

Oil 290
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EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

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In recent years, the US electric power sector’s historical reliance on coal-fired power plants has begun to decline. Emissions per capita fall by an average of 1% per year from 2005 to 2035, as growth in demand for transportation fuels is moderated by higher energy prices and Federal fuel economy standards.

Oil 210
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IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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barely rises in OECD countries, although there is a pronounced shift away from oil, coal (and, in some countries, nuclear) towards natural gas and renewables. Despite the growth in low-carbon sources of energy, fossil fuels remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported. Energy demand. — WEO-2012. Renewables.

Global 225
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Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

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The database includes joint Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and GHG emission standards for LDVs. The team explored other scenarios including different levels of CO 2 and CH 4 fees applied to the BAU and OPT scenarios; different levels of LDV demand; and different oil prices.

Emissions 150