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EIA expects record global petroleum consumption in 2024, with lower crude oil prices

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EIA expects crude oil prices to decrease through 2023 and 2024, even as petroleum consumption increases, largely because growth in crude oil production in the United States and abroad will continue to increase over the next two years. Areas of uncertainty include Russian oil supply and OPEC production.

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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels, according to IEO2011. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. Click to enlarge.

Oil-Sands 220
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Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

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They also note that if the scale of analysis is that of the entire economy, the value commonly referenced for economy wide emissions is that oil sands constitute ~5% of Canada’s emissions. However, this only accounts for the processing that occurs in Canada and therefore excludes much of the refining and transport emissions.

Oil-Sands 225
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Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

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World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. Energy prices reflected this shift: oil peaked at $144 per barrel in July, then fell to $34 per barrel in December. Oil production reached 10.7

2008 150
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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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Industrial shipments of bulk chemicals, which benefit from an increased supply of natural gas liquids, grow by 3.4% Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation. Projected low prices for natural gas make it a very attractive fuel for new generating capacity. per year from 2012 to 2025.

Oil 290
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RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

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Bartis and RAND colleague Lawrence van Bibbe were the authors of a 2011 RAND report concluding that if the US military increased its use of alternative jet and naval fuels that can be produced from coal or various renewable resources, including seed oils, waste oils and algae, there would be no direct benefit to the nation’s armed forces.

Price 225
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EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Other liquids refer to natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids [BTL]), gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), kerogen (i.e., oil shale), and refinery gain. OPEC oil producers are the largest source of additional liquid fuel supply between 2010 and 2040.

Asia 341