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Next 10 report finds California will meet or exceed original target of 1.5M ZEVs by 2025

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Studies show that California will need 125,000 to 220,000 charging ports from private and public sources by 2020 in order to provide adequate infrastructure. Current trends suggest that barriers to EV adoption such as price, range, selection and charging-time will continue to diminish, as costs come down and technology improves.

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Study finds behavior-influencing policies remain critical for mass market success of low-carbon vehicles

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The researchers found that focusing on the behavioral aspects of consumers in vehicle purchase decisions is key to encouraging the rapid uptake of plug-in hybrid vehicles, battery-electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Share of EDVs in 2050. Note the different scaling used in the graphs. McCollum et al. Click to enlarge.

Carbon 231
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Belfer Center Study Concludes Reducing Car and Truck GHG Emissions Will Require Substantially Higher Fuel Prices; Income Tax Credits for Advanced Alt Fuel Vehicles Are Essentially Ineffective at Reducing Sector Emissions

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The study— Analysis of Policies to Reduce Oil Consumption and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions from the US Transportation Sector —finds that reducing CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector 14% below 2005 levels by 2020 may require fuel prices above $8/gallon by 2020. —Morrow et al.

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California ARB mods to ZEV regulations for IVMs would result in ~1.9% drop in total ZEV/TZEV units 2018-2025; no impact on air quality requirements

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In addition, although many experts say that the solution to our energy and climate problems is sending the correct price signals to industry and consumers, the transport sector’s behavior is highly inelastic in that it does not change significantly in response to changes in fuel prices, at least in the range that is politically acceptable.

2018 257
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IEA technology and policy reports outline paths to halving fuel used for combustion-engined road transport in less than 40 years

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New propulsion systems requiring new fuels, such as plug-in electric vehicle systems and fuel cell systems, are beyond the scope of this technology roadmap and are treated in separate roadmaps. Average fuel economy and new vehicles registrations, 2005 and 2008. Increase international collaboration on fuel economy.

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Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

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The EU has also made a commitment to reduce emissions in sectors outside the EU ETS, including transportation, by 10% on year-2005 levels by 2020. They then posited a range of new policies to demonstrate a range of possible fleet outcomes: R&D only. R&D plus fuel cell electric vehicle subsidy. —Dray et al.

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Global Fuel Economy Initiative Releases Roadmap Report on Achieving 50% Fuel Economy Improvement in LDV Fleet by 2050

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that fuel consumption and emissions of CO 2 from the world’s cars will roughly double between 2000 and 2050. Main additional measures would be full hybridization of a much wider range of vehicles (possibly including, but not requiring, plug-in hybrid vehicle technologies).