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IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

Green Car Congress

These scenarios provide projections based on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2012 Reference Case, advances in battery technology (e.g., improved battery chemistry that allows for faster and deeper charging and reductions in battery cell and other component costs), and oil prices increasing to $200 per barrel: Low.

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Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

Green Car Congress

The Q1 2013 index (top) shows that the 7 top automotive nations have seen their competitive positions shift since 2012 (bottom). None of the subsidy programs that ended at the end of 2012 were renewed. Forecasts for vehicle sales in China, the US and Japan have been corrected downward. Source: Roland Berger. Click to enlarge.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

Increased sales for hybrids and PHEVs. Projected sales of alternative-fuel vehicles in the AEO2013 Reference case are lower than in AEO2012, with the majority of the reduction reflected in sales of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), which in 2035 are about 1.3 million FFV sales in the AEO2012 Reference case. Overall findings.

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Center for Automotive Research releases study on estimated US distribution pattern of electric vehicles through 2015; focus on incentives

Green Car Congress

The CAR study uses the distribution of hybrid sales as the basis to estimate the distribution of plug-in electric vehicle sales. Within the study, CAR denotes the percentages it used to divide national electric vehicle sales among states. The study uses hybrid vehicle sales in each of the 50 states as a proxy for.

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UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Green Car Congress

In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. lower on a per-mile basis than gasoline-powered cars, depending on the future price of oil. Becker (2009).

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US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Green Car Congress

This report provides a progress update toward achieving the goal: The status of vehicle sales and future production volume estimates. Conventional hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been on sale in the US for more than ten years; new vehicle hybrid sales in 2010 were approximately 2.5%. and model 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015.

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