2012, Light, Oil Prices and Sale

IHS Automotive forecasts 88.6M unit global light vehicle market in 2015; 2.4% growth

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2015

IHS Automotive forecasts global automotive sales for 2015 to reach 88.6 over 2014, continuing an unbroken five-year run of sales recovery and growth from the low point set in the depth of the Great Recession in 2009. However, IHS Automotive analysts still expect light vehicle sales in China to grow by 7% in 2015 to 25.2

2015

2015 Light Market Global

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

Energy consumption by light-duty vehicles in the United States, AEO2013 and AEO2014, 1995-2040 (quadrillion Btu). quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 12.1 from 2012 to 2040, compared to 1.2% l/100 km) in 2012 to 37.2 l/100 km) in 2012 to 37.2 LDV energy consumption declines in AEO2014 Reference case from 16.0 Source: EIA.

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

Green Car Congress

APRIL 22, 2013

Under its most conservative of scenarios, more than 5 million light-duty electric-drive vehicles will be on the road in the US by 2035, according to a new forecast by IEE , an institue of the Edison Foundation. The low electric transportation scenario is based on the AEO 2012 Reference Case. Forecast by LDV scenario (millions).

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Vehicles 2012 Light

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles. Increased sales for hybrids and PHEVs. million FFV sales in the AEO2012 Reference case.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Green Car Congress

JULY 14, 2009

In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. lower on a per-mile basis than gasoline-powered cars, depending on the future price of oil.

Electric Cars

Electric Cars Batteries Battery Market

Record $86B in 2011 US oil and gas upstream deals, led by unconventional sector with $62B

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 16, 2012

Industry appetite for oil-rich resource plays, particularly the North Dakota Bakken shale, Texas Eagle Ford shale and Ohio Utica shale, drove deal activity in the unconventional sector to a record $62 billion. We expect continued strong activity in oil and liquids-rich resource plays in 2012. —Ronyld W. Click to enlarge.

El Paso

El Paso 2011 Oil Gas

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

It also updated the costs and sizes of electric and plug-in hybrid electric batteries and revised downward light-duty vehicle travel demand due to the adoption of a new estimation technique. Beyond 2020, CAFE standards for both passenger cars and light-duty trucks are held constant. Unconventional vehicle sales. Source: EIA.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 8, 2011

This report provides a progress update toward achieving the goal: The status of vehicle sales and future production volume estimates. Conventional hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been on sale in the US for more than ten years; new vehicle hybrid sales in 2010 were approximately 2.5%. and model 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015.

2015

2015 Plug-in Tax Credit Plug

Syncrude to Expand Its Oil Sands Synthetic Crude Output to 425,000 Barrels per Day by 2020

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 25, 2010

Syncrude plans to begin constructing a mining train on Aurora South around 2012 with production expected by the end of 2016. The improvement in product quality would also allow for pipeline transportation and sales of surplus bitumen volumes. and Imperial Oil.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil 2020 Canada

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

NRC projections of number of PHEVs in the US light-duty fleet. Costs of light-duty plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are high—largely due to their lithium-ion batteries—and unlikely to drastically decrease in the near future, according to a new report from the National Research Council (NRC). Click to enlarge.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid

Nissan’s Big Gamble

Revenge of the Electric Car

JULY 14, 2009

will sell a plug-in Toyota Prius after 2010, taking on the Chevrolet Volt, which goes on sale in November 2010. “By the time the electric car comes on line in 2012, the economy in California will be in a better place,&# says Driebe, the 2006 chairman of the Nissan Dealer Advisory Board. Production begins in late 2012.

Nissan

Nissan Japan United States Gasoline-Electric

EV Driven

IHS Automotive forecasts 88.6M unit global light vehicle market in 2015; 2.4% growth

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Record $86B in 2011 US oil and gas upstream deals, led by unconventional sector with $62B

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Syncrude to Expand Its Oil Sands Synthetic Crude Output to 425,000 Barrels per Day by 2020

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Nissan’s Big Gamble

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