2011, Oil, Oil Prices and Tax

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. Click to enlarge. By mid-2Q, the team had increased its estimate to 25%.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. US crude oil production increases from 5.4 Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

Green Car Congress

MARCH 2, 2013

The US Department of State (DOS) has released its Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) in response to TransCanada’s May 2012 application for the Keystone XL pipeline that would run from Canada’s oils sands in Alberta to Nebraska. The pipeline would primarily transport crude oil from the WCSB and Bakken regions.

Climate Change

Climate Change Oil-Sands Nebraska Climate

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2012

However, the US military can play an important role in promoting stability in major oil producing regions and by helping protect the flow of energy through major transit corridors and on the high seas, the reports suggest. In the lead report, Bartis notes that global oil supplies are finite and thus, at some point, oil production must peak.

Price

Price Oil-Sands Turkey Fuel

Perspective: Government Leadership Needed for Electric Vehicles to Succeed

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 26, 2010

Jack Rosebro, founder of Perfect Sky in Los Angeles [and a contributor to Green Car Congress ], spoke of the need for government policy makers to move beyond incremental changes that are not providing enough incentive for the market to produce alternatives to oil as the almost exclusive source of energy for road and rail transportation.

Electric Vehicles

Electric Vehicles Vehicles Los Angeles Canada

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

The analysis is based on central forecasts of oil price, electricity. price and carbon pollution reduction scheme (CPRS)/carbon tax policy, and known information about the historic drivers for consumers in the vehicle. However, as EV and PHEV prices gradually reach. vehicle types (ICEs, EVs, PHEVs and HEVs).

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 8, 2011

Estimated US supply of PEVs from 2011-2015. and model 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015. The cumulative impacts of the various policy initiatives, the experience of the early purchasers of electric-drive vehicles and future oil prices will all play a role in determining future consumer demand. Fisker Karma EREV. Fisker Nina EREV.

2015

2015 Plug-in Tax Credit Plug

State Department releases Keystone XL Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 1, 2014

Incremental well-to-wheels GHG emissions from WCSB Oil Sands Crudes Compared to Well-to-Wheels GHG Emissions from Displacing Reference Crudes Click to enlarge. Market analysis: cross-border pipeline constraints have a limited impact on crude flows and prices. million bpd in 2010 to 6.5 million bpd in 2012 and 7.5 million bpd.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Nebraska Oil Montana

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 10, 2009

Will be competitive at an oil price of $45 to $90 at their commercial date. This technology could avoid both the need for significant capital investment to upgrade refineries to produce more low sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) and greater dependence on costlier, low sulfur crudes. Technologies that stretch today’s assets and resources.

Transportation

Transportation Supplies Emissions Fuel

Study details viable pathway to develop sustainable aviation biofuels industry in Pacific Northwest; hydroprocessing of natural oils seen as the most immediate opportunity

Green Car Congress

MAY 25, 2011

Established hydroprocessing technologies to produce aviation fuels from natural oils. supply chains for sustainable aviation fuels utilizing oils from oilseed crops such as camelina, as well as algae and biomass. In 2011, ASTM approval for the use of renewable jet fuel derived from hydroprocessing is moving into the final stages.

Oil

Oil Industrial Industry Renewable

Global investment in renewable power reached $270.2B in 2014, ~17% up from 2013; biofuel investment fell 8% to 10-year low

Green Car Congress

APRIL 6, 2015

billion set in 2011. The 103GW of capacity added by new renewable energy sources last year compares to 86GW in 2013, 89GW in 2012 and 81GW in 2011 and made 2014 the best year ever for newly installed capacity. billion, up 7% on the year but well below its all-time high reached in 2011. billion, up 39% from 2013.

2014

2014 Renewable 2013 Wind

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 4, 2011

2011-25), recognizing that the transportation electrification process will evolve in stages based on the learning that occurs in the years and decades ahead. However, consumer demand for PEVs is quite uncertain and, barring another global spike in oil prices, may be limited to a minor percentage of new vehicle purchasers (e.g.,

Plug-in

Plug-in 2015 Plug Recharge

RAC Foundation: 830,000 households in UK spend at least 27% of their income on running a car; “transport poverty”

Green Car Congress

MARCH 7, 2013

In November 2012 the Office for National Statistics published the Living Costs and Food Survey for 2011. In January, the UK Office of Fair Trading said that increases in gasoline and diesel prices over the past ten years are largely caused by increases in taxation and oil prices and not a lack of competition.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Cars Price

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

Green Car Congress

JULY 19, 2012

Very broadly, they found that an LCFS would buffer the economy against global oil price spikes, trim demand for petroleum, and lessen upward pressure on gas prices. Treat all crude oils as part of the overall pool of transportation fuels. We did not shy away from controversy. We are not advocates.

Carbon

Carbon Oil-Sands Standards Design

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

As part of the solution framework, the Israeli government will provide tax incentives to customers, Renault will supply the electric vehicles, and Project Better Place will construct and operate an Electric Recharge Grid across the entire country. Electric vehicles will be available for customers in 2011. Then we are done! Email Neal.

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

EV Driven

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Perspective: Government Leadership Needed for Electric Vehicles to Succeed

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

State Department releases Keystone XL Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Study details viable pathway to develop sustainable aviation biofuels industry in Pacific Northwest; hydroprocessing of natural oils seen as the most immediate opportunity

Global investment in renewable power reached $270.2B in 2014, ~17% up from 2013; biofuel investment fell 8% to 10-year low

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

RAC Foundation: 830,000 households in UK spend at least 27% of their income on running a car; “transport poverty”

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

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