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Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020, falling to below 2010 levels by 2035

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Global demand for oil may well peak before 2020, falling back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035, according to a multi-client research study conducted by Ricardo Strategic Consulting launched in June 2011 in association with Kevin J. Oil demand growth will have its limits in every country. Lindemer LLC.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. Click to enlarge. Click to enlarge.

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BP Statistical Review finds global oil share down for 12th year in a row, coal share up to highest level since 1969; renewables at 2%

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seen in 2010, according to the newly released BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2012. China alone accounted for 71% of energy consumption growth. These shocks pushed energy prices higher in much of the world, with oil prices reaching a record annual average of more than $100 per barrel (bbl) for the first time.

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BNEF forecasts EVs to be 35% of global new car sales by 2040; cost of ownership below conventional-fuel vehicles by 2025

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A new study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) forecasts that sales of electric vehicles will hit 41 million by 2040, representing 35% of new light duty vehicle sales worldwide. This would be equivalent to nearly 8% of global electricity demand in 2015. At the core of this forecast is the work we have done on EV battery prices.

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BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

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BCG’s analysis finds that cellulosic ethanol is on the verge of becoming cost-competitive with gasoline at $3/gal US. ” also sees steady adoption of on-shore wind and electric vehicle technologies, but suggests that off-shore wind and carbon capture and sequestration look likely to fade or decline. BCG, November 2010).

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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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Among the transportation-related updates going into AEO2011, the EIA increased the limit for blending ethanol into gasoline for approved vehicles from 10% to 15%, as a result of the waiver granted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 2010. World liquids consumption grows from 83.7 million barrels per day in 2035.

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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Click to enlarge.

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