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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020 150
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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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The rising fuel economy of LDVs more than offsets the modest growth in VMT, resulting in a 25% decline in LDV energy consumption decline between 2012 and 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case. Industrial shipments of bulk chemicals, which benefit from an increased supply of natural gas liquids, grow by 3.4% per year, from 21.5

Oil 290
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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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quadrillion Btu in 2035, as a result of fuel economy improvements achieved through stock turnover as older, less efficient vehicles are replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Beyond 2035, LDV energy demand begins to level off as increases in travel demand begin to exceed fuel economy improvements in the vehicle stock.

Fuel 225
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. Oil, excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6%

Energy 210
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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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Shale gas offsets declines in other US supply to meet. The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

Gas 199
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Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

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It uses linear programming to estimate energy supply shifts over a multi-decadal timeframe, finding the least-cost means to supply specified demands for energy services subject to user-defined constraints, assuming a fully competitive market. output of mining or importing technologies) to conversion or process technologies (e.g.,

Emissions 150
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IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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barely rises in OECD countries, although there is a pronounced shift away from oil, coal (and, in some countries, nuclear) towards natural gas and renewables. Despite the growth in low-carbon sources of energy, fossil fuels remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported. Energy demand. — WEO-2012. Renewables.

Global 225