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Belfer Center Study Concludes Reducing Car and Truck GHG Emissions Will Require Substantially Higher Fuel Prices; Income Tax Credits for Advanced Alt Fuel Vehicles Are Essentially Ineffective at Reducing Sector Emissions

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A new study from the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs finds that reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation will be a much bigger challenge than many assume, and will require substantially higher fuel prices combined with more stringent regulations. Source: Morrow et al.

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BCG study finds conventional automotive technologies have high CO2 reduction potential at lower cost; stiff competition for electric cars

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Conventional automotive technologies have significant emission-reduction potential, according to a draft of the Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) latest report on automotive propulsion, Powering Autos to 2020. —“Powering Autos to 2020” (draft). Source: BCG. Click to enlarge. However, China is a major wildcard.

CO2 246
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California ARB mods to ZEV regulations for IVMs would result in ~1.9% drop in total ZEV/TZEV units 2018-2025; no impact on air quality requirements

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Among the proposed changes were additional production lead time; a reduced compliance obligation (i.e., Among the proposed changes were additional production lead time; a reduced compliance obligation (i.e., Earlier post.). by about 1.9%. by about 1.9%. For MY 2026 and following, the reduced compliance obligation goes away.).

2018 257
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Study Finds That CO2 Standards for Vehicles Can Reduce Price of Oil

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By working out that the price of oil will fall when the EU’s regulations fully take effect, the study suggests that the European economic benefits of fuel efficiency have been underestimated, in general by up to 17%, according to T&E. The dangerous part is with the price of oil likely to drop, demand for fuel will go up.

Oil 150
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IEA technology and policy reports outline paths to halving fuel used for combustion-engined road transport in less than 40 years

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New propulsion systems requiring new fuels, such as plug-in electric vehicle systems and fuel cell systems, are beyond the scope of this technology roadmap and are treated in separate roadmaps. Average fuel economy and new vehicles registrations, 2005 and 2008. Source: Technology roadmap. Technology Roadmap.

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CEPS task force report identifies tightening emissions standards as key policy to hit EU 60% reduction in transport GHG; full life-cycle emissions optimal metric

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The steady tightening of standards will first incentivize combustion efficiency and in parallel speed up the deployment of new low-carbon technologies and fuels, such as vehicles running on low-carbon electricity, hydrogen, compressed natural gas or sustainable biofuels. Credibility requires beginning to implement policies now—i.e.

Emissions 210
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Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

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This is even the case under widespread adoption of the most promising technologies for all transportation modes, due primarily to limitations in biofuel production capacity and a lack of technologies that would drastically reduce CO 2 emissions from heavy trucks and intercontinental aviation, they found. Credit: ACS, Dray et al.