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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.

Oil-Sands 220
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IEA: global map of oil refining and trade to be redrawn over next 5 years

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Profound shifts in the regional distribution of oil demand and supply growth will redefine the refining industry and transform global oil trade over the next five years, according to the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The oil market is at a crossroads.

Oil 255
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Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

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World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. Energy prices reflected this shift: oil peaked at $144 per barrel in July, then fell to $34 per barrel in December. Oil production reached 10.7

2008 150
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RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

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However, the US military can play an important role in promoting stability in major oil producing regions and by helping protect the flow of energy through major transit corridors and on the high seas, the reports suggest. In the lead report, Bartis notes that global oil supplies are finite and thus, at some point, oil production must peak.

Price 225
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ExxonMobil Outlook: 35% growth in energy demand by 2040; hybrids to account for ~50% of new vehicle sales

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China will see the largest increase—more than 4 million oil-equivalent barrels per day. In 2010, natural gas accounted for about 1% of all transportation fuels, with about 45% of that demand concentrated in Asia Pacific. The outlook projects that oil and natural gas will continue to meet about 60% of energy needs by 2040.

Oil-Sands 309
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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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This geographically diverse group comprises Brazil and Mexico in the Americas; South Africa and Nigeria in Africa; Egypt and Turkey in North Africa/Mediterranean; Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East; as well as Thailand and Indonesia in Asia. Half of that increase will come from the Asia Pacific region, led by China.

Energy 252
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Oil, excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6%

Energy 210