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$10-Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC

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OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs. The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. On the one hand, OPEC does not see oil prices returning to triple-digit territory within the next 25 years, a strikingly bearish conclusion. Article Source: [link].

Increase in US rig count will not cap oil prices

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The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices.

Oil Prices Running Out Of Reasons To Rally

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Oil prices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in US shale production. For the better part of two months, optimism surrounding the OPEC deal has buoyed oil prices, but bullish sentiment from speculators are showing early signs of abating, raising the possibility that the oil rally is running out of steam. The gains in the rig count come even as oil prices have held steady in the mid- to low-$50s per barrel.

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Opinion: The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits

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Oil prices have climbed by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase. US oil production has steadily lost ground over the past two quarters, with production falling more than a half million barrels per day since hitting a peak at nearly 9.7 That is not good news for oil prices.

Oil Well Strippers Suffering From Low Oil Prices

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With OPEC breaking down and any kind of coordination among its members on price cuts looking increasingly unlikely, it now appears that oil prices could remain below $50 a barrel for a year or more. A stripper is a small operator of very old oil wells that frequently produce less than five barrels per day of oil. billion barrels of oil and 18.8 percent of the US oil output, so they are a non-trivial source of US production. Article Source: [link].

3 Years Of Painful Cuts Sets Oil Markets Up For Serious Supply Crunch

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Total global oil production could decline for the next several years in a row as scarce new sources of supply come online. According to data from Rystad Energy, overall global oil output will fall this year as natural depletion overwhelms all new sources of supply. It might be that we see quite a dramatic reduction in replacing the capacity and of course that will have an impact, eventually, on price.”. A sharp rise in oil prices would spur new investment and new drilling.

Global biofuels production up 17% in 2010 to hit all-time high of 105 billion liters

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In the United States, the record production of biofuels is attributed in part to high oil prices, which encouraged several large fuel companies, including Sunoco, Valero, Flint Hills, and Murphy Oil, to enter the ethanol industry.

When Will Russia Run Out Of Oil?

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On a global level, 2015 and 2016 marked the lowest level of new conventional oil discoveries since 1952. billion barrels of conventional oil were discovered, roughly 45 days of global crude consumption or 0.2 When will Russia run out of oil? Link to original article: [link].

Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can’t Agree

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shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks. But analyst projections about oil global supply and demand are increasingly diverging, because expectations of the combined effects of OPEC’s cuts, U.S.

Day Of Reckoning For US Shale Will Have To Wait

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It may just delay the adjustment for oil markets. “It We think that banks are generally giving producers more time to improve financial health and that spring ‘16 redeterminations could be much tougher without significant commodity price improvement,” said Jonathan Wolff, an analyst with Jeffries, according to SNL. Maintaining access to finance can come at a price. The ratings agency cut its forecasted oil price for 2016 to just $48 per barrel.

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US Shale Is Now Cash Flow Neutral

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Oil prices are probably already high enough to spark a rebound in shale production. Even when US oil production hit a peak at 9.7 By 2016, oil companies large and small had shed a lot of that extra fat, running leaner than at any point in the last few years.

Opinion: The Shale Delusion: Why The Party’s Over For US Tight Oil

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The party is over for tight oil. Despite brash statements by US producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies. the latest price rout could stop US growth in its tracks.”. OPEC and US crude oil production.

OPEC’s Output Freeze: What Has Changed Since Doha?

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The official chatter is that the OPEC meeting in Algeria from September 26 to 28 could conclude with an agreement to freeze production by the member nations, with even Russia joining forces in a freeze that may prevent further oil price erosion. What about the shale oil producers?

Is A Second OPEC Cut In The Cards?

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OPEC’s coordinated effort to curtail global supply has so far managed to put a floor under oil prices, which have been sitting modestly above US$50 since the deal was announced at the end of November last year. Analysts and experts are now mostly predicting that oil prices will remain below US$60 this year. A key upside driver for prices would be an extension of the OPEC deal beyond its original expiry date at the end of June. Link to original article: [link].

What Does The Next OPEC Meeting Have In Store?

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The 2 June 2016 OPEC meeting will be held amid a backdrop of oil prices near $50 per barrel, a sharp drop in Nigerian production due to sabotage, turmoil in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia operating with a new oil minister, and Iran aggressively pumping close to pre-sanction levels. The Prince outlined his strategy in “Vision 2030”, and a major step in that direction is the listing of the state-owned oil company Aramco. Link to original article: [link].

Oil Majors’ Costs Have Risen 66% Since 2011

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The oil majors reported poor earnings for the fourth quarter of last year, but many oil executives struck an optimistic tone about the road ahead. The collapse of oil prices forced the majors to slash spending on exploration, cut employees, defer projects, and look for efficiencies.

The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started

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The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started. It’s been a month now that investors and analysts have been closely watching two main drivers for oil prices: how OPEC is doing with the supply-cut deal, and how US shale is responding to fifty-plus-dollar oil with rebounding drilling activity. Those two main factors are largely neutralizing each other, and are putting a floor and a cap to a price range of between $50 and $60. Link to original article: [link].

Petrobras says it is expanding oil and gas production in the pre-salt in “economically viable” manner

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Responding to press articles saying that the collapse of the global oil price is threatening oil and gas production in the off-shore Brazil pre-salt layer, Petrobras countered that it is expanding its production capacity “in an economically viable manner.” On Tuesday, 6 January, the price for WTI crude closed at $47.93/bbl, while Brent crude closed at $51.10.

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An OPEC Deal Extension Isn’t As Simple As It Sounds

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It’s been six months now that oil prices have been reacting to OPEC, first to the possibility of an agreement, and then to the production cut deal itself, forged by OPEC to rebalance the market. The agreement clearly states that it is production that OPEC producers are vowing to cut, but Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi has recently claimed—rather emphatically—that it is exports , not production, that serve as the baseline for the cuts. Market Background Oil

Why Wall Street is throwing billions at the Permian

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The collapse of oil prices has ground shale drilling to a halt, but the one region where drilling is still active, and even increasing, is in West Texas. The Permian Basin is one of the last profitable areas to still drill with sub-$50 oil, and as other regions fall by the wayside, an increasing portion of drilling activity and spare investment dollars are flowing into the Permian. 8 article , QEP Resources paid $60,000 an acre to an undisclosed owner in June.

Opinion: Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Prices

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OPEC altered the course of the oil markets last year when it decided to cast aside its traditional role of maintaining balance through production cuts. Instead it pursued a strategy of fighting for market share, contributing to an immediate rout in oil prices.

$67 Oil Has All The Majors Converging in Argentina

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Argentina offers one of the few places on earth where oil companies are not suffering from the full force of the collapse in prices. Argentina regulates oil prices, a policy originally intended to insulate the public from the whims of the market, protecting people from triple-digit crude prices. But with the crash in prices since mid-2014, the effect of the regulation has reversed: motorists are now effectively subsidizing the oil industry.

The Real Reason for USA based Economic Recessions.

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The True Cause of Recessions: OIL. I was asked to speak about the economic impact of our oil dependency and so I began researching this topic to see if I could draw some insightful conclusions. There have been 5 recession since then until now and I wanted to see if Oil had anything to do with them, because deep in my heart, I knew the most recent recession was directly caused by the oil price spikes that started in 2007 and peaked in 2008.

Oil Industry Faces Huge Worker Shortage

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The rig count has rebounded from the lows seen in late May, a small indication that oil companies in the US could begin drilling anew. Because of this, the collective US shale industry has been likened to the new “swing producer”: low oil prices force quick cutbacks but higher prices trigger new supplies. An estimated 350,000 workers have been laid off in the oil industry around the world, and the rig count in the US is a tiny fraction of what it was two years ago.

Opinion: Oil Megaprojects Won’t Stay On The Shelf For Long

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One casualty of the oil price downturn could be the megaproject. For years, as conventional oil reserves depleted and became increasingly hard to find, oil companies ventured into far-flung locales to find new sources of production. Extracting oil from these frontier areas required more advanced technology and a lot more capital: Ultra deepwater, Arctic offshore, heavy oil sands, and increasingly, the Lower Tertiary. Article Source: [link].

Not So Prolific: US Shale Faces A Reality Check

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The collapse of oil prices has forced the US shale industry to slash production costs. In order to improve the breakeven costs for the average shale well, the industry has deployed three general strategies: improving techniques and technology, such as drilling longer laterals or using more frac sand; focusing drilling on the sweet spots; and demanding lower prices from oilfield service companies. This item accounted for about 35% of the break-even price reduction.”

Are The Saudis About To Reveal The Best Kept Secret In Oil?

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One of the oil world’s longest and best kept secrets may finally be revealed. Saudi Arabia is preparing to unveil how much oil it holds, a closely guarded state secret that has been kept quiet for decades. Saudi Arabia often trades off with Russia—and more recently, with the US—as the world’s largest oil producer. But while it produces at similar levels as Russia and the US, it is long been a vastly more influential player in the oil world.

Opinion: Political Climate Shifting Against The Oil And Gas Industry

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Oil and gas companies have had a tough time over the past year trying to weather the storm of falling oil prices. Drilling oil and gas wells requires a lot of money. For companies that have seen their revenues vanish because of collapsing oil prices, access to credit is obviously critically important. Put another way, about 12 percent of all loans to oil and gas companies are rated “substandard” or worse. Article Source: [link].

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Opinion: OPEC Divorce And Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Oil Strategy?

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If You’re a Free Range Oil Producer. Despite low oil prices, Saudi Arabia is maintaining its investment in its oil industry. According to an August 26 Bloomberg article , the Saudi government is seeking ways to reduce investment in 2016 “.as

Opinion: Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia’s Oil Industry

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Russia’s central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. The result is a heavier discount for Russia’s crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. Article Source: [link].

New UC Davis market-based sustainability forecasting approach concludes supplanting gasoline and diesel with renewable fuels could take 131 years

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In the paper, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier point out that the peak of oil production is estimated to occur approximately between 2010 and 2030, and note that all those dates are considerably earlier than their estimate of the time until renewable replacement technologies are viable in the market (around 2140). “ Obviously, our results suggest that there is a potential danger that crude oil will be depleted before it can be replaced by viable substitutes.”

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Worldwatch Institute report finds global energy intensity increased in 2010 for second year in a row

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The article notes that worldwide energy efficiency had been increasing steadily until recently. In addition to technological advances, price developments play a key role in determining overall energy usage, Worldwatch notes. Global energy intensity, 1981-2010. Click to enlarge.

Morgan Stanley Warns That Rising Rig Count Could Undo The Oil Rally

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Oil is exactly such an industry at the moment. No one is sure where oil is heading, near-tem forecasts range from $20 to $80 per barrel by the end of the year, and there are just too many wild cards on the scene. It was expected, the companies themselves said they are ready to start ramping-up production as soon as prices reach some more reasonable level. As Forbes author Art Berman wittily notes , rigs don’t produce oil, wells produce oil.

Surprise Natural Gas Drawdown Signals Higher Prices Ahead

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Natural gas spot prices shot up following the data release on August 4, although they fell back again shortly after. Natural gas consumption patterns are much more seasonal than for oil. Natural gas prices have traded below $3 per million Btu since the beginning of 2015.

Opinion: Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

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Putin has highlighted on various occasions the contribution Russia’s mineral wealth, in particular oil and natural gas, must make for Russia to be able to sustain economic growth, promote industrial development, catch up with the developed economies, and modernize Russia’s military and military industry. While oil and natural gas are crucial to Russia, Russia’s crude and natural gas are crucial to its neighbors on the Eurasian landmass. Article Source: [link].

Tesla Announces IPO

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From the article: “California electric car maker Tesla Motors Inc. The price of shares or the timing of their availability is still unclear, but industry observers expect the much-anticipated offering to be well-received by investors.&#. Here’s the full text of the entire article, in case the link goes bad: [link]. The stock price and timing of the initial public offering are unknown.

Perspective: Government Leadership Needed for Electric Vehicles to Succeed

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The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of these organizations.]. Jack Rosebro, founder of Perfect Sky in Los Angeles [and a contributor to Green Car Congress ], spoke of the need for government policy makers to move beyond incremental changes that are not providing enough incentive for the market to produce alternatives to oil as the almost exclusive source of energy for road and rail transportation.

Hawaii opts for EVs and renewable energy

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The rest of Hawaii’s electricity is generated by burning oil. Yes, tankers of dirty, expensive oil are brought in and boatloads of money are shipped back to the oil companies. Oil burning is one of the single biggest sources of pollution coming from the whole state. Clean base load energy is particularly important since that is usually generated by nukes, burning coal or, in the case of Hawaii, oil.

Study Finds Government Mandates Superior to All Other Biofuels Policies, But Mixing With Subsidies Causes Adverse Effects; The Argument for a Direct CO2 Tax

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For example, adding a biofuel subsidy with a consumption mandate fails to increase ethanol consumption but instead subsidizes oil consumption. Foremost among those findings is that a quantity-based biofuel mandate is superior to a price-based consumption subsidy. Other findings from the study include: Ethanol policy can have a substantial impact on corn prices.

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Are biofuels the answer for green cars? The Green Piece

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Global use of biofuels will more than double between 2009 and 2015 – that is the verdict of Hart Energy Publishing’s Global Biofuels Centre (see article ). They offer the prospect of increased market competition and oil price moderation and can help reduce the dependency on fossil fuels.