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Today’s Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

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As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. In a speech made at the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators’ 2017 International Petroleum Summit, Johnston laid out his concerns for the future of oil. oil may not be able to fill.

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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels, according to IEO2011. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. Click to enlarge.

Oil-Sands 220
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IEA says oil supplies may not keep up with demand

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Despite what appears to be a saturated oil market in 2014, oil producers around the world will struggle to meet rising demand over the next few decades. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 37 percent by 2040, with a dominant proportion of that coming from developing countries—i.e. China and India.

Oil 257
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Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

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World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. In the first half of the year, producers strained to meet global demand, but when the recession took hold later in the year the market was swamped by excess supply.

2008 150
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RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

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However, the US military can play an important role in promoting stability in major oil producing regions and by helping protect the flow of energy through major transit corridors and on the high seas, the reports suggest. Earlier post.). Additionally, U.S. Energy security concerns also may help strengthen existing partnerships (e.g.,

Price 225
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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World energy growth over the next twenty years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030. Click to enlarge. Coal will increase by 1.2%

Energy 210
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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030.

2006 150