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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy. Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles.

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RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

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From a cost perspective, the potential of alternative fuels is of limited, if any value, according to the lead report written by James Bartis, a RAND senior policy researcher. In response to these high prices, demand will moderate as petroleum consumers look for transportation options that are more energy efficient.

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Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. Historical scenario. (A)

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Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

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The DOE-QTR defines six key strategies: increase vehicle efficiency; electrification of the light duty fleet; deploy alternative fuels; increase building and industrial efficiency; modernize the electrical grid; and deploy clean electricity. Impartial DOE research can help inform these standards. —QTR.

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Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

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California’s LCFS also would have little or no impact on GHG emissions nationwide and would harm our nation’s energy security by discouraging the use of Canadian crude oil—our nation’s largest source of crude—and ethanol produced in the American Midwest. This is a critical tool to help us break our dependence on fossil fuels.

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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. By contrast, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010. The passenger vehicle fleet doubles to almost 1.7

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