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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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World energy growth over the next twenty years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030. Click to enlarge. Coal will increase by 1.2%

Energy 210
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EIA Estimates 2.1% Growth in Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in US in 2010; Still Below 1999-2008 Levels

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The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates in the April 2010 release of its Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook that CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels, which declined by 6.6% in 2010 and 1.1% EIA projects that world oil consumption will grow by 1.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2010 and 1.6

2008 186
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KPMG study identifies 10 sustainability “megaforces” with accelerating impacts on business; imperative of sustainability changing the automotive business radically

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KPMG developed 3 nexuses linked by climate change to represent the challenges of sustainable growth. The KPMG research finds that the external environmental costs of 11 key industry sectors jumped 50% from US$566 to US$846 billion in 8 years (2002 to 2010), averaging a doubling of these costs every 14 years. Source: KPMG.

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Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

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They also note that if the scale of analysis is that of the entire economy, the value commonly referenced for economy wide emissions is that oil sands constitute ~5% of Canada’s emissions. A growing supply of unconventional transportation fuels would tend to moderate oil prices and would drive up emissions on a life cycle basis.

Oil-Sands 225
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Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. 2010, to above 140 $/bbl in constant 2010 dollars).

Oil 207
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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. At a high level, the report notes that there are few signs that the urgently needed change in direction in global energy trends is underway. By contrast, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010.

Oil 247
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GSI/UNEP conference report finds fossil-fuel subsidy reform complex and challenges sobering; ~1% of global GDP spent on fossil-fuel subsidies

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Following that announcement, G-20 Leaders agreed to national plans to implement subsidy reform (June 2010) and have asked international organizations to review and assess members’ progress against their commitments (November 2010), according to the conference report.

Fuel 240