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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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quadrillion Btu in 2035, as a result of fuel economy improvements achieved through stock turnover as older, less efficient vehicles are replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Beyond 2035, LDV energy demand begins to level off as increases in travel demand begin to exceed fuel economy improvements in the vehicle stock.

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Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. Emissions Forecasts Fuels Oil'

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Perspective: Toyota Prius Recall Is Only a Bump in the Road in the Move Toward Electrification

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Oil price and supply dependencies will continue the search for alternative fuel sources, and battery powered vehicles can have a significant impact on that equation. A major competitive threat comes from other regions, such as China, which view this technology as a means to leapfrog entrenched players.

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Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

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The California LCFS calls for at least a 10% reduction from 2006 levels in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO 2 e/MJ) of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. Discouraging these fuels will simply increase costs while failing to prevent their export to and consumption by other nations. Earlier post.).

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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Under the central New Policies Scenario, automotive sales in non-OECD markets exceed those in the OECD by 2020, with the center of gravity of car manufacturing shifting to non-OECD countries before 2015. The share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption falls from around 81% today to 75% in 2035. Click to enlarge.

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