IHS Markit: oil price collapse will change trajectory of North American gas supply

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The trajectory of North American gas supply is set to change radically as a result of the fall in oil prices that has occurred due to COVID-19 and the breakdown in production cooperation between OPEC and Russia, according to IHS Markit. Prior to the global pandemic, languishing North America gas demand and near-full storage was already pushing gas supply and prices to near-record lows in 2020. Market Background Natural Gas Oil

2020 185

IHS Markit says outlook for crude oil prices strengthens through 2021

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Oil markets have returned to relatively stable ground with Brent prices within a narrow $40-$45 per barrel range and could conclusively pass the $50 per barrel mark in the second half of 2021, according to Roger Diwan and the IHS Markit Energy Advisory Service. The IHS Markit Brent price outlook has been revised upward to an average price of $42.35/bbl in 2020 and $49.25/bbl in 2021—up $7.09/bbl and $5.25/bbl, respectively, from the outlook in May.

2020 170
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Today’s Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

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As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. As Saudi Arabia announces plans to slash production and move their economy away from oil dependency, many industry insiders are predicting that the now over-saturated market will reach an equilibrium with higher commodity prices by 2018 and U.S. oil may not be able to fill. Market Background Oil

2020 Thanksgiving week gasoline consumption in US lowest since 1997

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The Rockies saw the smallest slide (5.6%) but that is substantial enough to impact supply and demand balances as winter approaches. The data speaks to a major problem for the petroleum industry and oil prices as it recovers from unprecedented demand declines for most of 2020. A persistent rebound in global oil markets requires profitability in transportation products.

2020 184

Opinion: Why oil prices must go up

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It may be difficult to look beyond the current pricing environment for oil, but the depletion of low-cost reserves and the increasing inability to find major new discoveries ensures a future of expensive oil. While analyzing the short-term trajectory of oil prices is certainly important, it obscures the fact that over the long-term, oil exploration companies may struggle to bring new sources of supply online. Market Background Oil Opinion

The Next Oil Price Spike May Cripple The Industry

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Two diametrically opposed views dominate the current debate about where the oil price is heading. On the one hand, there is the view that the price of oil will be “ lower for longer ”, or even “ lower forever ”, as the electrification of transport will eat away at oil demand more and more while, at the same time, technological innovation ( shale in particular ) will greatly increase economically recoverable resources. Market Background Oil Opinion

2017 163

Roskill: Molybdenum demand to drop by more than 8% in 2020

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Roskill expects demand for molybdenum to drop by more than 8% in 2020. Mine supply continued to edge higher in 2019, albeit by a relatively slow 0.7%—an This slow growth in mine supply, combined with the drop in demand, was sufficient to flip the molybdenum market from a deficit in 2018 into a surplus in 2019. Consequently, molybdenum prices came under downward pressure. By December, the molybdenum oxide price stood at US$9.5/lb Mo. in 2020.

2020 170

IHS Markit: global commercial vehicle production to drop 22% in 2020 in wake of COVID-19

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IHS Markit is forecasting that global commercial vehicle production (GVW 4-8) volumes in 2020 compared to 2019 will be down 22% (more than 650,000 units) to 2.6 Individual regional forecasts are set to a downtrend, and supply chain impacts are being felt, as the consequences of the virus have shuttered manufacturing and supplier facilities around the world. decline in global real GDP in 2020.

2020 175

IHS Markit: global oil production now expected to be cut by as much as 17 MMb/d in Q2 2020; the Great Shut-In

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The second quarter of 2020 will see the largest volume of liquids production cuts, including shut-in production, in the history of the oil industry, according to IHS Markit. IHS Markit now expects much as 17 MMb/d total liquids output (which includes nearly 14 MMb/d of crude oil production) to be cut or shut-in during the period between April and June 2020. The Great Shut-In, a rapid and brutal adjustment of global oil supply to a lower level of demand is underway.

2020 161

VW eGolf supply, rising oil prices in 2020, and an electric double-decker bus: Today's Car News

Green Car Reports

The Volkswagen eGolf is in extremely short supply. Analysts forecast oil prices may double by 2020. The VW eGolf may be in short supply while the automaker gears up for Los Angeles introduces the first electric double-decker bus. And Ontario, Canada, ends a rebate program for electric cars and chargers. All of this and more on Green Car Reports.

2018 60

$10-Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC

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OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs. The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. On the one hand, OPEC does not see oil prices returning to triple-digit territory within the next 25 years, a strikingly bearish conclusion. Market Background Oil

2015 183

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

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The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 For example, if lower oil prices last, they are likely to slow the growth of the electric vehicle market, to some extent.

2014 225

IHS Markit: US oil producers to halt 1.75 MMb/d per day of production; Canada to cut 0.5 MMb/d

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Due to the collapse in oil prices, IHS Markit expects US producers are in the process of curtailing about 1.75 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of existing production by early June due to operating cash losses, lack of demand and storage capacity, and an unwillingness to sell resources at the very low prices available since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Forecasts Market Background Oil

2020 170

Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can’t Agree

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shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks. But analyst projections about oil global supply and demand are increasingly diverging, because expectations of the combined effects of OPEC’s cuts, U.S.

2017 150

Opinion: Global Oil Supply More Fragile Than You Think

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Many oil companies had trimmed their budgets heading into 2015 to deal with lower oil prices. But the collapse of prices in July—owing to the Iran nuclear deal, an ongoing production surplus, and economic and financial concerns in Greece and China—have darkened the mood. Now a prevailing sense that oil prices may stay lower for longer has hit the markets. That brings us back to the large spending cuts the oil majors are undertaking.

2015 184

Norweign Drivers switch to Electric Cars

EV Report

Most people do know and feel that if we drive electric cars we could reduce the consumption of oil and could reduce pollution. But recently due to outbreak of COVID-19, sales of electric vehicles have been affected with the consumer markets being shaken and oil prices being plunged to high.

2020 52

3 Years Of Painful Cuts Sets Oil Markets Up For Serious Supply Crunch

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Total global oil production could decline for the next several years in a row as scarce new sources of supply come online. According to data from Rystad Energy, overall global oil output will fall this year as natural depletion overwhelms all new sources of supply. It might be that we see quite a dramatic reduction in replacing the capacity and of course that will have an impact, eventually, on price.”. The price acts as a self-correcting mechanism.

2016 163

IHS Markit: 2020 low-sulfur requirements for marine bunker fuels causing scramble for refiners and shippers

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On 27 October 2016, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that beginning on 1 January 2020, the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine bunker fuel will be reduced from 3.50% mass by mass (m/m) to 0.50% m/m (35,000 ppm to 5,000 ppm)—five years earlier than many expected. Heavy fuel oil (HFO) is the predominant marine fuel. Neither has made the necessary investments for compliance, which means that the 2020 implementation date will result in a scramble.

2017 150

Forecast: Algae-Based Biofuels Production to Reach 61M Gallons per Year by 2020

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billion by 2020. Countries with significant dependence on foreign imports of oil will likely show increased interest in algae-based biofuels if oil prices continue to rise over the next decade. Pike Research’s study, “Algae-Based Biofuels”, examines the key growth drivers behind the algae-based biofuels market and outlines unresolved supply challenges.

2010 259

Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020, falling to below 2010 levels by 2035

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Global demand for oil may well peak before 2020, falling back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035, according to a multi-client research study conducted by Ricardo Strategic Consulting launched in June 2011 in association with Kevin J. Further, improved supply prospects for natural gas are likely to lead to decoupling of oil and gas markets, according to the study. The world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand.

2011 185

EIA expects global consumption of liquid fuels to surpass 2019 levels in 2022

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million barrels per day (b/d) for all of 2020, down by 8.6 US liquid fuels consumption in 2020 averaged 18.1 US regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.78 EIA forecasts regular-grade gasoline prices to average $2.92/gal in 2H21 and $2.74/gal for all of 2022. in 2020.

2019 222

Syncrude to Expand Its Oil Sands Synthetic Crude Output to 425,000 Barrels per Day by 2020

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Canadian Oil Sands Trust, the largest stakeholder (36.74%) in the Syncrude oil sands project, announced plans to increase the synthetic crude oil production capacity at Syncrude Mildred Lake upgrader to 425,000 barrels per day by 2020 from 350,000 now. The expanded upgrader capacity would be supplied by bitumen from the undeveloped Aurora South mine. Marcel Coutu, Canadian Oil Sands’ President and CEO. and Imperial Oil.

EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

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EIA also forecasts the Brent crude oil price will average $64 per barrel this summer, a 78% increase from last summer’s average of $36 per barrel. That price increase paired with an increase in gasoline and diesel demand will likely increase the cost of regular gasoline and diesel fuel this summer. EIA expects the retail price of regular-grade gasoline in the United States will average $2.78 million b/d from March 2020. million b/d from 2020.

2019 170

Huge Backlog Could Trigger New Wave Of Shale Oil

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That leaves a rather large backlog that could add a wave of new supply, even if the pace of drilling begins to slow. Some level of DUCs is normal, but the ballooning number of uncompleted wells has repeatedly fueled speculation that a sudden rush of new supply might come if companies shift those wells into production. The latest crash in oil prices once again raises this prospect. It’s really 2020 and 2021.”. Market Background Oil

2019 203

Bank of America: Oil Demand Growth to Hit Zero Within a Decade, EVs the Culprit

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By 2030, oil demand could hit a peak and then enter decline, according to a new report. For the next decade or so, oil demand should continue to grow, although at a slower and slower rate. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the annual increase in global oil consumption slows dramatically in the years ahead. An executive from Ford said recently that automakers might feel compelled to invest directly in cobalt production over fears of securing adequate supply. “I

2019 251

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. In cases with the highest supply and lowest demand outlooks, the United States becomes a significant net exporter of energy. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2015 192

Opinion: Could WTI Trade At A Premium To Brent By Next Year?

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A flood of bearish news has pushed down oil prices to their lowest levels in months, with WTI nearing $45 per barrel and Brent flirting with sub-$50 territory. With a bear market back, there is pessimism throughout the oil markets. Goldman Sachs is even predicting oil stays at $50 through 2020, a profoundly grim view of the state of oil supplies. Also, the ban on oil exports kept oil stuck within US borders.

2015 184

Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

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World oil production capacity to 2020 (crude oil and NGLs, excluding biofuels). Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 mbpd by 2020, according to a new study by a researcher at the Harvard Kennedy School. shale oil production. Oil: The Next Revolution."

2012 221

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels, according to IEO2011. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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However, fossil fuels continue to supply nearly 80% of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane increase. Given current policies and regulations limiting fossil fuel use, worldwide energy-related CO 2 emissions rise from about 31 billion metric tons in 2010 to 36 billion metric tons in 2020 and then to 45 billion metric tons in 2040, a 46% increase over the 30-year span.

2013 258

Study Finds That CO2 Standards for Vehicles Can Reduce Price of Oil

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A new study by the French institute Enerdata, commissioned by the European Federation for Transport & Environment (T&E), suggests that the European CO 2 standards for new vehicles due to come into effect in 2012 will lead not only to a European savings on oil (mainly via lower oil import volumes) but also to slightly lower global oil prices. reduction in global oil consumption results in a drop in global oil prices of 1.2%.

2009 150

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

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China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The Middle East becomes the world’s second-largest gas consumer by 2020 and third-largest oil consumer by 2030, redefining its role in global energy markets. Oil use grows, but in a narrowing set of markets. Mobility and oil. The decline in oil use in OECD countries accelerates. Contributions to global oil production growth.

2013 229

IHS Markit: shippers, refiners scrambling to respond to IMO signals on low-sulfur fuel enforcement

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Recent moves by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) have signaled a strong determination by the sanctioning body to strictly enforce a tightening of marine fuel low-sulfur regulations, which will result in a period of huge upheaval in global oil markets, extraordinary margins for some oil refiners, and a potential doubling of fuel costs for shippers, according to new analysis from IHS Markit.

2018 163

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

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Such economic benefits could be realized earlier through effective policies which reduce first mover costs in the short term and promote rapid take-up once non-ICE vehicle price premiums reduce to levels that make them affordable to. electricity supply to provide the necessary protections from higher voltages. The analysis is based on central forecasts of oil price, electricity. range and higher fuel prices make EVs more competitive.

2011 185

Study: Kerry-Lieberman Bill Would Cut US Oil Imports By Up to 40% Below Current Levels

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A new study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics concluded that the Kerry-Lieberman “American Power Act”—the energy and climate change legislation recently introduced in the Senate ( earlier post )—would reduced US oil imports by 33-40% below current levels and by 9-19% below projected business-as-usual levels by 2030. Renewable and nuclear energy would grow from 8% each of US energy supply today to 16 and 14% respectively in 2030.

2010 192

Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

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Governments and vehicle manufacturers will need to introduce long-term incentives and price cuts to create a sustainable European market for ultra-low emission vans (ULEV), according to a newly published report by Element Energy, commissioned by the UK Department for Transport. Total costs of ownership were calculated for the full range of powertrains and van sizes in 2011, 2020 and 2030, taking account of depreciation and financing costs, fuel costs, servicing and insurance.

2012 200

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Alternative technologies, such as hybrid and electric vehicles that use oil more efficiently or not at all, continue to advance but they take time to penetrate markets. Supply.

2011 213

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth decelerates slightly beyond 2020. per year to 2030; and from 2020 OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend of -0.2%

2011 185

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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AEO2013 offers a number of other key findings, including: Crude oil production , especially from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 Because quickly rising natural gas production outpaces domestic consumption, the United States will become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2016 and a net exporter of total natural gas (including via pipelines) in 2020.

2012 196

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO ’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. barely rises in OECD countries, although there is a pronounced shift away from oil, coal (and, in some countries, nuclear) towards natural gas and renewables.

2012 196

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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Shale gas offsets declines in other US supply to meet. The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. Our Reference case projection shows the growing importance of natural gas from domestic shale gas resources in meeting US energy demand and lowering natural gas prices.

2010 179

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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The differences from AEO2013 to AEO2014 result from different fuel prices, updated manufacturer product offerings, changing technology attributes, and an updated view of consumer perceptions of infrastructure availability for E85 vehicles. Natural gas prices significantly increase the demand for LNG and compressed natural gas in AEO2014 , from an insignificant share in 2012 to 8% of HDV energy consumption in 2040. With domestic crude oil production rising to 9.5

2013 241

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

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The cost to manufacture these vehicles is expected to decline by about one-third by 2020 but only slowly thereafter. Penetration rates for the PHEV-10 and the PHEV-40 were compared to a Reference Case that assumes high oil prices and fuel economy standards specified by EISA 2007 (with modest increases after 2020, when those standards level off), as described in the 2008 Hydrogen Report from NRC. NRC projections of number of PHEVs in the US light-duty fleet.

2009 170